Winsto’s (attempted) Wisdom-Week 5 Reaction: What We Learned

By Winsto (10/09/2022)

NYG (double-checks notes) defeats GB

What we learned:

  1. Saquon Barkley is good.  Fine, I will give you something less obvious.  Though New York’s offense struggles at times, it still somehow moves the ball, and it has done so while missing  its top wide receivers for most of the season.  This offense could actually be more efficient once Wan’Dale Robinson (WR) and Kadarius Toney (WR) return from injury, though at this point, I am not holding my breath for Toney.  Even with just Robinson’s return, Daniel Jones could be a useful bye week fill in, depending on the match-up.
  2. I have discussed in previous columns, Green Bay’s offensive issues center on the wide receiver situation.  Those issues have been exposed against competitive teams.  Unless Christian Watson (in particular) and Romeo Doubs are better incorporated into this offense, the issues will remain.  If I can see that, surely the coaching staff sees that as well.  Until this happens, the ceiling for all players involved in this offense (Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and A. J. Dillon included) will be more limited than what we have seen in recent seasons, especially against competitive opponents.

Pittsburgh falls hard in Buffalo

What we learned:

  1. Kenny Pickett was not awful.  Buffalo’s defense has made veteran QBs look worse.  What is also important is that Pickett may be offering some fantasy upside to Pittsburgh’s skill position players (George Pickens in particular, as he could he be entering WR3 conversation with upside?  Pittsburgh will not have to play Buffalo again, so there’s that as well.  Of course, it does not get much easier next week, as Tampa Bay’s defense will be coming to town.
  2. Sometimes I am wrong on players.  I know that is difficult to believe, but it sometimes happens. However, I was not wrong on Gabe Davis this week.  I argued that his slow past few weeks was due to the ankle injury.  He did not look slow today.  We already know that Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are very good and should be fixtures in your weekly match-ups, but a healthy Davis may also want more of your attention when setting your line-ups.  I would be hard pressed to have Davis on the bench against Kansas City next week.  And, if someone dropped him due to his slow few weeks, run to your waiver wire!

 

Los Angeles Chargers holds off Cleveland

What we learned:

  1. Despite hiccups with Los Angeles’s offense, partly due to the absence of Keenan Allen, it can still produce–see Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams today.  Williams will continue to be boom or bust, and today was a decent boom.  Ekeler, despite losing some carries, is just showing that he is still a solid RB1.  Though Justin Herbert’s numbers were not stellar, he will have better days.
  2. For Cleveland, the players who we thought would show up did.  Nick Chubb is just a beast.  Kareem Hunt is a solid RB3/Flex.  Amari Cooper (aside from last week) and David Njoku (who must now be considered a TE1) are staying fantasy relevant with Jacoby Brissett.  That in itself is good news.  All of these things should continue, though not next week due to their Bye.

Minnesota survives at home against Chicago

What we learned:

  1. Apparently, Justin Jefferson cannot be covered or even contained.  Dalvin Cook continues a solid season as a RB1.  Kirk Cousins remains a high end QB2.  As for the rest of Minnesota, Alexander Mattison is a high-end handcuff.  Adam Thielen’s ceiling is probably WR3 at best.
  2. Justin Fields continues to progress, as had season highs in completions (15) and passing yards (208).  He is only useful in deep superflex/2QB leagues at this point.  What is more interesting is how David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert were used, as Montgomery outtouched Herbert 16 to 4.  Herbert, though talented, is merely a stash.  This situation could change, but I would not blame you if you cut Herbert for a talented stash on a more proficient offense.  Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet are both still not moving the fantasy needle, though through no fault of their own.

Detroit is no match for New England

What we learned:

  1. Defensive guru Bill Belichik is still defensive guru Bill Belichick.  Detroit’s offense found no success, but Rhamondre Stevenson sure did.  Damien Harris exited the game.  If he is forced to miss some time, Stevenson is a borderline RB1.  Jakobi Meyers may have some value as a WR2/3–I may need to see more to believe, but he could be worth a flier.  I suppose there are worse options than Hunter Henry at TE, but remember that Bill Belichik is Bill Belichik.
  2. Oh Detroit.  How that offense came crashing down.  Josh Reynolds had another solid game.  Jamal Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and T. J. Hockenson were all bottled up.  Jared Goff came back to earth.  Detroit has a bye week, so the expectation is that D’Andre Swift and D.J. Chark should return afterwards.  Reynolds and Williams, who does seem to be the favored short-yardage back, will still have some value, but not as much as they did the last two weeks. For St. Brown, he will have better games and is still a WR1 for the time being.  For Hockenson, he is still a solid TE1, considering the TE landscape.  One thing to consider is when Jameson Williams will make his debut, as he could eat into St. Brown’s targets.

New Orleans defeats Seattle

What we learned:

  1. Taysom Hill, who qualifies as a TE on many websites, is in essence, a cheat-code in fantasy football.  He may not get the amount of time under center in future games compared to this one, but it does seem to me that he will get time, and that puts him in the TE1 category at the VERY least. As for Alvin Kamara, he had a nice day at the office, accounting for almost 200 total yards! Chris Olave, unfortunately suffered a concussion (while hauling in a TD), so his status for next week should be monitored.  Moving forward, a healthy Olave has the look of a WR2.
  2. For those of you who drafted Kenneth Walker III, it looks like your wait is over.  Rashaad Penny, unfortunately, exited the game while suffering a a fractured tibia, and he is out indefinitely.  Walker is the back now, though how much he will be used in the passing game is still a question.  Meanwhile, D. K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett’s fantasy demise due to Geno Smith being the starter this season was vastly exaggerated.  Aside from his game against San Francisco in Week 2, Smith has been, in a word, great, fantasy-wise.  There is still that bit of doubt in the back of our minds, but we cannot ignore the resume he has put together this season.  He is a QB1 ( I think?)

Tampa Bay hangs on against Atlanta

What we learned:

  1. Leonard Fournette had his best fantasy game of the season, and he apparently did not like the idea of Rashaad White taking over his receptions (he had 10 receptions for 83 yards and a TD).  He also ran for 56 yards and another TD.  White is a top tier handcuff, but his usage without something happening to Fournette cannot be relied upon.  On a side note, keep an eye on Cameron Brate’s status this week, as Cade Otton (TE) had 6 catches for 43 yards.  He could be useful again next week if Brate misses again.  Tom Brady, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin all had solid days, but I think most of us expected more against Atlanta.
  2. Which brings me to Atlanta.  Maybe they are not that bad? Despite being without Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts, they hung in there with Tampa Bay.  Drake London has been fairly quiet in recent weeks, and a match-up with San Francisco next week may not help. 

Miami loses to New York Jets

What we learned:

  1. Breece Hall is the guy, outtouching Michael Carter 20 to 12.  Carter did have 2 TDs, but that may have been somewhat circumstantial.  As for New York’s passing game, we need to see more to figure out how its going to shape up with Zach Wilson back.
  2. Skylar Thompson, who came in for a Teddy Bridgewater after the new concussion rule required Bridgewater to sit, was not able to unlock the fantasy potential of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill.  Hill, meanwhile, was in a walking boot after the game, and that is something to monitor.  Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater may likely both be back next week.  Raheem Mostert had 18 of the 23 carries among running backs.  He has laid his claim on this job.  Because of his injury history, you want to keep other options on your team, but feel free to ride this out as long as it lasts.  Reports are that Durham Smythe (TE) injured his hamstring, so that may make Mike Gesicki a more attractive option for next week’s game against Minnesota.

Tennessee defeats Washington

What we learned:

  1. Derrick Henry is only player from Tennessee you can trust week in and week out.  Ryan Tannehill is a back-end QB2.  Robert Woods has now only topped 40 yards once in five games.  Treylon Burks could have some value in deep leagues when he returns from injury.
  2. Despite two duds in weeks 3-4, Carson Wentz still holds value as a (gulp) startable (borderline QB1) fantasy QB.  Do I have confidence in that statement?  Nope.  But, I am making that statement, so that at least means something.  I would not chase Dyami Brown’s points.  Jahan Dotson will return.  It does appear that Dotson, Terry McLaurin, and Curtis Samuel will probably prevent each other from being a reliable weekly fantasy option, as Wentz seems to spread the ball.  All three are probably borderline WR2/WR3s moving forward.  In his first game back from his gunshot injury, Brian Robinson outcarried Antonio Gibson 9 to 3.  The box score for all was nothing special, but Robinson is the chair of this committee.  And, there soon may not be a committee, as Robinson could potentially just take over.

Houston defeats Jacksonville?

What we learned:

  1. Dameon Pierce is solid and should be considered a high-end RB2 going forward (possibly even bordering RB1 territory).  Brandin Cooks is a WR3/4, and Nico Collins is an option for those in deeper leagues.
  2. Oh Jacksonville!  Just when I decided to hop on the train, it derails.  Do not go chasing Marvin Jones Jr.’s 104 receiving yards–he had not topped 40 yards in previous 4 games.  Trevor Lawrence, James Robinson, and Christian Kirk all had duds.  I still think Kirk will be fine moving forward.  Meanwhile, Travis Etienne, and his 114 total yards, made this backfield with James Robinson more interesting (uncertain) moving forward.  My confidence meter on Robinson and Lawrence dropped a bit.

San Francisco takes care of Carolina

What we learned:

  1. Jeff Wilson Jr. has been a solid fill-in for Elijah Mitchell, and will continue to do so as long as Mitchell is out.  George Kittle can still have fantasy value.  Deebo Samuel had a down game, but still scored a TD.  I am not worried about him.  Brandon Aiyuk, at this point, had to be viewed as a WR3/4 and nothing more (unless something were to happen to Damuel).
  2. Christian McCaffrey could rule the world if he was on a competent offense.  Unless something changes and Sam Darnold’s replacement of Baker Mayfield improves the offense, D. J. Moore is a WR3/4.  Sigh!

Dallas defeats Los Angeles Rams

What we learned:

  1. Ezekiel Elliot is getting volume.  Tony Pollard is more efficient.  Stop me if you have heard that before.  That seems to be what will happen this season.  CeeDee Lamb did  not have a special day, but he did have about half of all the receiving yards for Dallas, still showing he is a WR1.  Right behind him was Michael Gallop, who accounted for 40% of the receiving yards.  Things should improve for both (and Dalton Schultz) once Dak Prescott returns.  (Until then, though, Dalton Schultz is bench).
  2. Los Angeles’s offensive issues are not going away, as I have discussed in previous columns.  There is no threat on this offense outside of Cooper Kupp (which is why Tyler Higbee is getting more targets).  The offensive line is struggling, and Cam Akers has struggled as well.  Matthew Stafford is hard to trust as more than a back-up QB at this point.  All of that said, a match-up against Carolina next week could cure a few issues.

Philadelphia holds on against Arizona

What we learned:

  1. Jaylen Hurts has been a top 5 QB while Dallas Goedert a top 5 TE.  Those things should continue.  Mile Sanders, though a bit of a down game, is still a borderline RB1/RB2.  A. J. Brown had a quiet game.  I would not be concerned, as he is still a solid WR1.  Meanwhile, DeVonta Smith is making a case as a borderline WR2/WR3.  I would say the biggest issue surrounding all of these skill position players is that the biggest threat to their touchdown production might be, ironically, Hurts, who now has 6 rushing TDs.
  2. Considering the opponent, Kyle Murray played okay.  Marquise Brown and Zach Ertz both had fairy solid games as well.  Rondale Moore also proved to be useful, and may have value in deeper leagues.  The story here, however, is that James Connor and Darrel Williams both got nicked up, so Eno Benjamin became the last man standing.  Pay attention to the injury reports this week.  If Connor and Williams can both not go, Benjamin becomes a sneaky RB2 play against Seattle.

Baltimore takes the win from Cincinnati

What we learned:

  1. Lamar Jackson is a top 5 QB1 on the season, but this game left you with the feeling that he could have done more.  That’s two games in a row that were mediocre.  I am not overly concerned, but there is a hint of inconsistency there.  As for Mark Andrews, hold on to him for dear life, given the landscape of despair that is the tight end position.  Devin Duvernay has been a steady contributer to this offense.  It will be interesting to see how J. K. Dobbins, who looked solid in limited run, will affect this offense the more he touches the ball.
  2. Joe Burrow is a borderline QB1/QB2.  What’s is interesting is that his completion percentage is down from last year (64.9 v 70.4), and his yards per attempt is very down (6.9 v 8.9).  That is concerning.  Defenses have seemed to adjust, as Ja’Marr Chase has not topped 81 receiving yards since the first week.  Tee Higgins, though injured a bit this season, has been about as productive a fantasy wide receiver as Chase.  Chase still has serious talent to be a WR1, but based on the first 5 games, he is not there right now.  Higgins is a solid WR2.