Winsto’s Week 7 Reaction: Fantasy Football Isn’t Fair

By Winsto (10/24/2022)–updated 11:23 p.m. CST

To paraphrase Bruce Willis’s character from the underrated 1991 action movie, The Last Boy Scout, water is wet, the sky is blue, and fantasy football isn’t fair.  This is a basic truth. 

As we hold our collective breath today and somehow project our wishes onto Breece Hall’s ACL to somehow keep it intact, this truth remains:

Fantasy football isn’t fair.

(As I am writing this column, there has been an update.  Ughhhhh! Hall’s ACL is in fact torn, and he will be out for the season.  We here at fantasyrooster.com wish him a very speedy recovery and look forward to his return next year.)

Maybe you scored the most you scored this season, only to watch in disbelief as your opponent started the following:

  • Daniel Jones (QB)-202 passing and 107 rushing with 2 total TDs
  • Gus Edwards (RB)-67 rushing yards and 2 TDs
  • Chuba Hubbard (RB)-73 total yards and 1 TD
  • Mecole Hardman (WR)-60 total yards and 3 TDs
  • Tyler Boyd (WR)-155 receiving yards and 1 TD
  • Marquise Goodwin (WR)–67 receiving yards and 2 TDs
  • Juwan Johnson (TE)-32 receiving yards and 2 TDs

 

And you lose by 2 points, knowing how ridiculously unlucky and unfair that was.

Fantasy football isn’t fair. 

Or maybe you had an early fantasy draft last year, and selected J.K. Dobbins (RB-Baltimore), only to see him tear his ACL in the preseason.  You thought, “well, that is unfortunate, but at least I drafted Gus Edwards (RB-Baltimore) to handcuff Dobbins,” only to see Edwards tear his ACL within the following week.

Fantasy football isn’t fair. 

Or maybe you drafted Andrew Luck (QB-Indianapolis) on August 22, 2019, only to watch him announce his retirement 2 days later.

Fantasy football isn’t fair.

Accept it!

Once you accept this fundamental truth about fantasy football, you can then move on from the fantasy football depression.  Get the whining and complaining out of your system, and be quick about it.  See a problem, not as an obstacle, but as an opportunity to find a solution.

For those of us who have Breece Hall….  Excuse me for a bit. [Goes off and uncontrollably weeps for 10 seconds]  Okay, I am back.  We have to pivot, act, and move forward.  We have to find solutions.

So, let’s look at those possible solutions:

  1. Gus Edwards (RB)-Baltimore.  Edwards has a career ypc average over 5!  He plays for a very run heavy offense!  In his first game back from his ACL injury, he outtouched his main backfield competition (Kenyon Drake) 16 to 11.  No, he theoretically may never catch a pass this season, but as long as J. K. Dobbins (RB) is out, which may be a while, Edwards is going to be the main guy in this backfield, and he should be a low end RB2, at the very least.
  2. Michael Carter (RB)-NYJ.  This is was the most obvious replacement until the news of New York acquiring James Robinson (RB) from Jacksonville for a conditional 6th round pick.  Look, I am not going to sugarcoat it.  Carter is not Breece Hall.  But you know who he is?  He is Michael Carter.  The Michael Carter who has averaged 4.3 ypc last season (on a not good offense) and has solid ability catching the ball out of the background.  No, he does not have the speed of Hall, but he is shifty. and could be a solid RB2. Unfortunately, he now he has competition with Robinson.  There are several ways to look at this.  Either New York did not feel Carter is really an alpha running back or New York simply wanted more depth, only sacrificing a late round draft pick.  From Jacksonville’s side, did they settle for a late round draft pick because the coaching staff did not foresee Robinson returning to the back he was in 2020 and saw an opportunity to unload him?  Carter did have some success last year.  Robinson did have some success early on this year.  The answer probably involves a little of all of the above.  Assuming Robinson is already rostered–if he isn’t, then he is worth a flier, I would still grab Carter just to see how this shakes out.  Of the two, I “may” lean toward Carter, but it is basically 50/50.
  3. Chuba Hubbard (RB) and/or D’Onte Foreman (RB)–Carolina.  I know what you are thinking: “why would I want a running back in a timeshare on maybe the worst team in football?”  That is a fair question.  I would have asked that same question the day before Sunday’s game (I sort of alluded to it in Weekend Wonderings).  But, part of how we grow as a person is acquiring new information and making adjustments based on that new information.  The “worst team in football” just ran for 173 yards against Tampa Bay’s supposedly stout defense.  Carolina’s offensive line has shown up okay this season running the ball.  Both of these players have flex appeal with some upside if one missed time.
  4. Isiah Pacheco (RB)-Kansas City.  I am sure there was a mad rush to grab him in your league after news broke that he would start Sunday morning.  BUT, since he did nothing of note, impatient fantasy managers may drop him.  I would swoop in.  Kansas City is on a BYE this week, and if they decide to make some more changes, he may be the beneficiary.  There is upside there.
  5. It is very difficult to predict a trade, but Cam Akers (RB-LAR) seems to be on the block.  Maybe a change of scenery in the right situation could make him fantasy relevant.  The trade deadline is Novmeber 1, so there will be resolution fairly soon.
  6. What if you miss or have already missed out on these players?  Then you keep looking.  There may be some interesting handcuffs available who would take over if something happened to their respective starters.  Look at players like Rashaad White (RB)-Tampa Bay, Jaylen Warren (RB)-Pittsburgh, DeeJay Dallas (RB)-Seattle, and/or D’Ernest Johnson (RB)-Cleveland (Kareem Hunt trade rumors are growing). In addition, for those of you in deep leagues, take a chance on Kyren Williams (RB)-LAR.  He is currently on the IR, but he may be fantasy relevant fairly soon.

 

If you are in a position to replace Hall with a wide receiver, look at Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG) and or Tyquan Thornton (NE).  What about Christian Watson (GB), Van Jefferson (LAR), Jameson Williams (Det), and/or Kadarius Toney (NYG)–surely, they will be healthy at some point, right?  All of these players have fantasy potential.  We still have 11 weeks left for them to live up to it.

In addition, my colleague may have other possible candidates in his weekly waiver wire column series, “Gold: Fantasy or Fools?”

Now, you may ask, “Okay, fantasy dude, who would I cut?” My general rule regarding cutting players is based two principles:

  1. Does the player have upside? 
  2. Are there players on the waiver wire with comparable fantasy stats? 

 

If your response is “no” to the first and “yes” to the second, then there might just be your answer.

Again, just remember:  fantasy football isn’t fair.  We have to accept it and move forward.  What we can take solace in is that it isn’t fair for everyone.  Every week brings new opportunities.  Be ready to act.