Winsto’s Final FronTiers-WRs

When trying to decide which wide receivers to go with, you want to consider a few things: ability, potential targets, talent of the quarterback, and potency of the offense. In terms of ability, some players pass the eye test and some do not. In terms of potential targets, ask yourself who else is on the offense that will receive targets, and how do you think those targets will be distributed. Regarding the quarterback play, it is always a plus for a wide receiver to play with an upper level quarterback. And finally, how productive do you think the offense is going to be?

What also complicates matters is whether you play in a non-PPR league, a PPR league, or a 1/2 PPR league. As stated in previous articles, I, personally, am not a fan of PPRs. The following tiers are a sort of compromise of the three options.

In addition, touchdowns can be fluky, but they do matter. Some players tend to have higher touchdown ceilings than others. For example, Robert Woods is a good football player, but he has never scored more than 6 receiving touchdowns in any of his nine regular season. That matters. Gabriel Davis, in two seasons as a part-time player, has not scored LESS than 6 receiving touchdowns in the regular season. Yes, you do want to pursue targets and yardage, but do not simply ignore touchdowns because many consider them to be fluky. They are not completely random.

Let’s begin….

Tier 1–the ultra elite (1-3)

Look, these guys, simply put, are in a class of their own, fantasy-wise. As much as I love running backs, I would not have an issue drafting one of these guys if I had any draft pick after pick 4 or 5.

Tier 2-the elite (4-6)

These three are no slouches, either. I think there is just a slight drop-off from Tier 1. Adams is going to a new team, but Carr is very underrated. In addition, Adams creates separation as well as anyone in the game. Can Samuel duplicate the rushing numbers from last year as well as duplicate the receiving numbers with a new quarterback under center? Diggs is arguably in the best position of the three to replicate his 2021 numbers, and he “should” have more opportunities with both Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders gone. Of the three, I think he has the safest floor, though arguably the lowest ceiling.

Tier 3–very good (7-12)

I think the drop off between Tier 2 and Tier 3 will be more pronounced than people may think. These players are all very good, but I am not sure about their ceiling. Brown and Hill are both going to new teams, and I am not sure those switches will improve their numbers from previous years, as there will be more competition for targets. Pittman is poised to be a solid number one, but it will be on a team with an older quarterback and a run first approach. All Evans does is catch touchdowns, but he has not reached 1,100 yards receiving the last two years. Higgins is in a good situation, but he has to share targets with Chase. Lamb has been the focus of much conversation regarding this will be his break out year. It could be, but it will only happen if he is good enough to overcome the attention he will receive as the alpha receiver. I just do not know.

Tier 4–the solid (13-28)

These are players who have potential, have been stuck with sub-part quarterback play, or are pushing 30 years old. Davis, Sutton, and Jeudy are entering the season with very high upside. Davis has a wide array of outcomes, and there could be a low floor. BUT, the ceiling here is tremendous. Sutton or Jeudy? Early reports are that Wilson has been favoring Sutton in training camp, so he gets the nod. Williams is who is–he will have 3-5 great games surrounded by 12-14 ho-hum games. Moore, McLaurin, Johnson, and Metcalf are entering the season with question marks at the quarterback position, though Moore and McLaurin have been able to sustain fantasy success in that situation in previous years. Mooney, by all accounts, gets open. The real question is can Fields get him the ball? St. Brown was a revelation for Detroit at the end of last season, but he may face more competition for targets this year. Renfrow will no longer be the focal point of the passing game for Las Vegas, but that may actually help. Cooks still seems to be the primary receiver in Houston, and that passing game may actually be okay. Allen has been nothing short of solid, but he is 30 years old. Be advised. Waddle will not be the alpha receiver for Miami this year. Robinson will now catch passes from the most talented quarterback he has ever played with; the concern is whether or not he has lost a step–he will enter the season at age 29. In all honesty, there is a wide array of outcomes for Robinson, which is why he is in this tier. Lockett was able to be useful last year, despite the injury to Russell Wilson, but he will be 30 years old this September.

Tier 5–the potential (29-38)

There is some potential here, with players switching teams, coming back from injury, or endearing themselves to the coaching staff. We even have our first rookie.

Tier 6–the low floor, decent ceilings (39-59)

We find more rookies here. We also find players on the same team who will be competing for targets.

Tier 7–the low floor, limited ceiling (60-72)

At this point, the value of these guys may depend on the size and settings of your league. Gage may have value in PPR leagues, as Brady does have a history of making slot receivers more relevant. Some of these guys could surprise, like Valdez-Scantling and Tolbert. Gallup could be relevant, depending on injury recovery. Take note of OBJ, as he is a free agent but, by all accounts, will not be available until the second half of the season. Also note Shenault and Mims, as there is talent there. Both have been involved in trade rumors, so in the right situations, they could find themselves to be fantasy relevant.

Next up, TEs….