Winsto’s Final FronTiers–Tight Ends

(08/28/2022)

Let us examine the tight end landscape heading into the 2022 fantasy football season.

Oftentimes, people who play fantasy football view the tight end position as an afterthought if they miss out on the top tier players. But, there can be some value even afterwards. Although other variables will impact the success of a tight end in fantasy football, try considering the following two factors when determining your selection: talent and target competition. Sometimes it can be difficult to predict talent when considering younger players, but target competition can be more foreseeable. Guys like Darren Waller, Mark Andrews, and Travis Kelce have been high-end players at their fantasy position in recent years due to both their talent and their limited target competition. From 2019-2020, when Waller posted back-to-back 1,000 yard receiving yards, his teammate with next most receiving yards did not reach 900 (2020 Nelson Agholor–though he did miss 3 games.) In the last few years, Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce competed with Marquise Brown and Tyreek Hill, respectively, but that was really their only real competition. When a team has several talented players at wide receiver, less targets typically remain for the tight end. This information may help when you are deciding which tight end(s) to pursue in your draft.

Tier 1–the elite (1-3)

These three players should be able to have elite years. Andrews nor Kelce have to compete with Marquise Brown and Tyreek Hill. Pitts’s only main competition for targets from the wide receiver position is talented rookie, Drake London (though we cannot fully ignore Cordarrelle Patterson’s pending targets from the running back position.)

Tier 2–the solid with upside (4-10)

The players here are a combination of tight ends (who are not as proven as others in this tier) that face little target competition and proven tight ends who now face more target competition. Schultz and Kmet do not have the history as these other players, but they should both have the eyes of their quarterbacks. I believe the ceilings of Schultz and Kmet are actually higher than any other player in this tier, though their floors could be lower. Waller, Hockenson, Kittle, Goedert, and Ertz should all have more target competition than they did previously. There is chance for success, but the ceiling might be capped.

Tier 3–the solid with limited upside (11-19)

This tier has players whose upside may be capped. Hooper has less competition for targets compared to the rest of this group. The question is will he be able to capitalize. Smith competes with a talented Minnesota receiving group. Njoku could be interesting, even with Brisset at QB for the first 10 games, but he has never averaged 40 receiving yards a game in his career. All Dawson Knox does is catch touchdowns, but he averaged less than 40 receiving yards per game last season. I may be underrating him, but I do not envision much of a ceiling for Knox, but touchdowns do matter. There is value there. Freiermuth showed promise his rookie year, but like Minnesota, Pittsburgh has a talented receiving group. Both Mike Gesicki and Albert Okwuegbunam will have that same problem in Miami and Denver, respectively. Brate may have some sneaky value in Tampa Bay’s offense. Thomas could be useful, but he is coming off injury and has more target competition.

Tier 4–the ones for the not so feint of heart (20-25)

If you are still reading, then you probably are in a deeper league or multiple tight end league. At this point, you are probably hoping for the random touchdown from these guys, but maybe someone can surprise.

Tonyan could make some noise if he is healthy. Evan Engram has talent, but he tends to disappoint the fantasy community. Maybe the change in scenery could restart his career. Henry could be relevant, but that really depends on how much the Patriots will throw the ball. Higbee, Everett, and Fant could catch the random touchdown, but their yardage totals will probably disappoint.