By Winsto (09/25/2022)
Reaccessing Expectations
We are one game away from 3 weeks in the books. We have enough information to at the very least reevaluate our expectations for several teams.
The Postive
- Jacksonville–This is a team that looks like it has put last year’s trainwreck-into-a dumpsterfire-of-a season well behind it. Trevor Lawrence has been serviceable, and he has contributed to the fantasy success of this offense’s players. James Robinson has been the somewhat surprising fantasy stud of this offense, probably to the dismay of the Travis Etienne, Jr. owners. And at receiver, Christian Kirk has definitely paid off, showing solid consistency through the first three games. I do not see why this success cannot continue.
- Detroit–They are kicking themselves for letting their Week 3 game slip away from them, but on the positive for fantasy, the offense can move the ball and score points. Jared Goff can also be serviceable, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is solid and steady. D’Andre Swift owners would be ecstatic thus far in the season if not for the concern regarding Swift’s injuries (ankle and now shoulder) and the resulting lack of usage. We will have to wait and see the extent of Swift’s injury, but Detroit may decide to err on the side of caution and rest him for next week. I would be looking to see if Jamal Williams, who now has 4 TDs in 3 weeks, is available on the waiver wire. He could be quite valuable and serve as a RB2 if Swift misses time. T. J. Hockenson was able to find the endzone, but I have to think his fantasy owners have concerns, and rightly so, as he has not reached 40 yards receiving in any game thus far.
- Miami–Look, Buffalo’s defense has allowed a total of 17 points through its first two weeks, and Miami was able to score 21 points. Tua Tagovailoa has shown capable of moving this offense enough to earn consideration as a top 12 QB. Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill owners should be happy with that, as the concern was Tua would not be able to support them. Yes, Hill did nothing special this week, but he is a must start. There was concern that would possibly not be the case this season. Based on the first 3 weeks, I am much less concerned. As for the running backs, there is still no consistent option. Yes, Chase Edmonds scored 2 TDs, but only had 27 total yards. Still, that was better than Raheem Mostert, who only had 11 yards rushing.
The Concerning
- Kansas City–There is some uneasiness here. Patrick Mahomes is a generational talent, but the concern here is two-fold: the wide receiving corps and the rushing attack. Kansas City’s approach to the wide receiving room, once they traded Tyreek Hill, was to improve the depth of the room. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Justin Watson, and Skyy Moore are collectively better than what Kansas City had last year, but last year’s receiving squad, aside from Tyreek Hill, was nothing special. Thus, the bar was not that high. There really has not been an alpha receiver here, and it is showing against solid to good defenses. Smith-Schuster is a solid receiver, but he is probably more of a #2 WR. MVS, Hardman, and Watson are probably who they are at this point in their careers, so I am not sure there will be any improvement. Skyy Moore was drafted to compete for snaps and catch passes, but so far, he has disappointed. There is still the “maybe” with Moore, but unless he is able to show that to the coaching staff and get on the field, this passing game will have some ups and downs. As for the rushing attack, it has simply not been pretty. Yes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a solid outings in Week 1 and Week 2 (thanks to a 52 yard run), but 7 rushes for 0 yards in Week 3? Fortunately, he “saved” his day with a TD, but through three weeks, he has not received more than 12 touches in a game. That is not ideal in fantasy. If I owned CEH, I would be looking to trade him away while there is still perceived value. The reality is that Kansas City, aside from Week 1, has not looked good running the ball, especially in short yardage situations. This has adversely affected the passing attack, as defenses do not respect the run. Kansas City may be reevaluating its rushing attack after this lost.
- Green Bay—Aaron Rodgers finds himself in a somewhat similar situation as Mahomes, and that has led him not topping 255 passing yards in 3 games thus far this season. The difference, however, is that Green Bay does actually have a good rushing attack, with Aaron Jones and A. J. Dillon, and a couple of “maybes” in its receiving group, with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. Doubs was able to have a solid Week 3, with 73 receiving yards and a TD. Watson missed the game with injury. Yes, Tampa Bay has a good defense, but unless Doubs can build upon his Week 3’s success and/or Watson can step into a more prominent role, Rodgers may have more ups and downs this season than previous years. And no, I am not buying Allen Lazard, who has never averaged more than 45.1 yards receiving a game in a season, as a #1 wide receiver.
- Denver–Through 3 weeks, the offense has failed to score over 16 points in a game. Something is just off. Week 1 was a bit fluky with the turnovers in the red zone. Week 2 saw the offense sputter with the injury to Jerry Jeudy. In Week 3, Russell Wilson had less than 200 yards passing. Was Jeudy still a bit hobbled? Courtland Sutton has been solid in all 3 games, but this offense was suppose to be electric. There has barely even been a spark. Whatever the reason, the lack of scoring has adversely affected all involved. With the continuation of the rushing committee, both Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon look to be hit or miss, with misses occurring more often than not if the offense cannot get into the endzone more often. And the preseason sleeper train of Albert Okwuegbunam has pretty much gone off the rails. To be fair, that same statement could apply to a most tight ends this season.
And Then There’s This
- Chicago–(Sigh). I am not sure what I can say. I think Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet are talented, but even against a plus match-up, Justin Fields only completed 8 passes. Fantasy success, or even bench value, can not occur in such an environment. David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert (especially if Montgomery misses time due to the injury he suffered) are the only players on this offense that currently have any value.