By Winsto (09/16/2023)
1. I wonder what we should expect for the Rookie Tight End Trio of Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, and Luke Musgrave this weekend.
Dalton Kincaid: The good news is he played 80% of the snaps, which was a slight concern given Dawson Knox is also on the team. The not as good news is he had less than a 10% target share and was tied for 3rd in targets with three other players, including the same number of targets as Dawson Knox. The bad news, simply put, is he plays on an offense whose quarterback (Josh Allen) feels compelled to appease and lock on to the offense’s WR1 (Stefon Diggs), who accounted for almost 32% of the targets.
Sam LaPorta: The good news is he had the most receptions by a rookie tight end in Week 1 since 2019 (T. J. Hockenson). In addition, he played 83% of the snaps. The not as good news is he was 4th in targets with a 14.3% target share. The even worse news is this all happened without Jameson Williams, who will return after Week 4.
Luke Musgrave: The good news is he played 75% of the snaps. The even better news is he had chances to score as opposed to LaPorta and Kinkaid in the first week. The not so good news is he had right under 15% target share and was tied for 3rd in targets. The even worse news is this all happened without Christian Watson.
Here is the thing. Neither Jameson Williams and Christian Watson are playing in Week 2, so that is one less thing to worry about. There is upside with both, but the floor is fairly low. Still, the floor is low for most all of the tight ends, so why not try one of these guys, right?
2. I wonder what we can realistically expect from Puka Nacua, not only for Week 2 but also for the rest of the season. The last rookie wide receiver, not drafted in the first 3 rounds, to have a 1,000 yard receiving season was 2006 (Marques Colston-NO). Puka Nacua was drafted in the 5th round, so for you non-math experts, that is not in the first 3 rounds. History is against him to have a 1,000 yard season, and Cooper Kupp’s return will limit his ceiling. .. that is assuming Kupp is going to return. Rumors of nerve issues and going on the IR in the first place for his hamstring are definitely red flags. All we can do is see what happens. As for Week 2, Nacua, who apparently is also dealing with an injury (oblique) as he popped up on the injury report, is expected to play.
The concerns are San Francisco’s defense is no joke, and Nacua was actually 3rd in playing time for the receiving unit with 78% snaps played. BUT, we are talking about a receiver who saw a 39.5% target share. We are also talking about him close to scoring two TDs. I have Nacua ranked 30, and that is only because he is not proven. Still, I think I may be too low. 39.5% target share is something you have to consider.
3. Speaking of wide receivers with nice target shares, what should we make of Zay Flowers? He was 2nd in receiver playing time with 84% and received 45.5% of the targets. 5% of the targets! How do we not put him as a WR1 already?
Well, my friends, we have to be cautiously optimistic. Lamar Jackson only attempted 22 passes against Houston. Yes, they were in positive game script for much of the game, but 22? Mark Andrews did not play in Week 01, but he will in Week 02. Andrews has averaged 7.5 targets per game in 2022, and 9 targets per game in 2021. Zay Flowers had 10 targets in Week 01. Andrews is going to get looks, and that will probably come at the expense of Flowers. HOWEVER, Flowers also had 2 rushes, and because of the loss of J.K. Dobbins, there may be something to Flowers getting some rushing work. I like Flowers. Simply put, he “looks the part” of a future star in the league. I have him at 33 this week, as I just need to see him play with Andrews before I start really bumping him up.
4. Sticking with the same team, I wonder if Keaton Mitchell may be a thing this season at running back? After Dobbins went down, many fantasy owners “rushed” to the waiver wire for Justice Hill and Gus Edwards. I think Edwards has value in standard scoring leagues. I think Hill is who he is. There have been openings in that offense due to injuries in the past, and he has never been able to take advantage of those opportunities. He is in his 4th year. I “think” if he was going to be a thing, it would have happened by now. And that, ladies and gentlemen, brings me to my point. I think Keaton Mitchell is going to be relevant. Mitchell, who is small at 5’8″ 180 lbs, is not going to be a full time back, but he could definitely work in tandem with a bruiser, like Edwards. Mitchell was having an impressive camp and preseason until a shoulder injury put him on the IR to start the season. If you have the roster room or a vacant IR spot, I would take a chance on him.
5. If you are starting multiple offensive players in the NYJ-Dal game, then maybe you should check the waiver wire. Dallas had a heck of a game last Monday, but it is not like the offense looked stellar. Pollard is a must start, and I “guess” Ceedee Lamb and Garret Wilson are acceptable. Otherwise, I would not expect high ceiling games from anyone else. Incidentally, I have the Dallas DST ranked number 1, just to further stress my point here.
6. I wonder if Kadarius Toney is on your waiver wire. If he is, he should not be. In 12 team leagues or larger, I wonder if Rashee Rice is on your waiver wire. I do not think he will be there after this week.
7. I wonder if I can make a bold prediction: Joshua Kelly, filling in for Austin Ekeler, will not have the game you are hoping for against Tennessee. I guess I can make a bold prediction.
8. I wonder if I am going to let HC Dan Campbell continue to fool me into starting Jahmyr Gibbs for the entire season. Again, I know how this ends. Every week, we will hear “his playing time will increase,” and I will know it is a lie. Yet, I will continue to start him for reasons, that quite honestly, I don’t even understand. I guess it’s the allure of the potential, even though deep down we know Campbell will never really unleash Gibbs. He never unleashed D’Andre Swift last season, even though Swift is GOOD, as we all saw on Thursday night. I also wonder if I will be able to get through a weekend wondering this season without discussing Gibbs’s playing time. I doubt it.
9. Did anyone notice the run to pass ratio in the Chargers offense against Miami in Week 01? In a shoot-out, Los Angeles had a 47.4% pass rate, which is 24th in the league. In 2022, they had a 65% pass rate, which was 2nd in the league. I am curious if this was just a quirky thing in Week 1 or a trend. We will find out in Week 2 as they take on the Titans, who are solid against the run. IF it continues to be a trend, then we have to rethink Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams.