Weekend Wonderings: Week 18 (2024)

By Winsto (01/03/2025)

  1. I wonder if several teams who have clinched a playoff spot, but not a specific seeding, will either rest several starters or possibly pull starters during the game.  Pittsburgh will know by kick-off time whether or not they can win the division, depending on the results of the earlier Baltimore-Cleveland game.  However, Pittsburgh can clinch the 5 seed with a win.  Coach Tomlin has suggested that the starters will play, but he did leave open the possibility of a change of mind.  I “think” Pittsburgh plays to win against Cincinnati, as the 5 seed would match up against a struggling Houston team versus falling to the 6 seed and having to face Baltimore.  The Los Angeles Chargers are in a similar boat, as they will know at kick-off whether or not they could move up to the 5 seed if Pittsburgh loses the night before.  If Pittsburgh wins, the Chargers seed is set, and I would avoid relying on their players in fantasy for Week 18.  And then there is Green Bay and Washington, who are both vying for the 6 seed.  My guess, and based on coach talk, is both plan to play to win.  Falling to the 7 seed means a match-up against Philadelphia, and I believe both teams would want to avoid that if possible.  They both play in the early window on Sunday, so that should keep both teams’ starters on the field.  My advice to all of this is to pay attention to practice squad call-ups and which players are ruled inactive prior to kick-off, as those reports will provide hints to what all of these coaches are intending to do.  In addition, play to have contingency plans if you are relying on any of the players from these teams. 
  2. And just to be clear, avoid Kansas City, Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles players, as the coaches have already made it be known that starters will be resting—oh what could have been for Saquon Barkley (RB-Philadelphia).  I would also avoid players from Houston.  The Houston coaches have said that starters will play, but my guess is it will only be for a portion of the game, as they are locked into the #4 seed. 
  3. For Week 18, the safer fantasy players are from teams, aside from those already eliminated from playoff contention, that are playing for either the #1 seed and a bye, the division title, or a playoff berth.  In other words, you can rely on Detroit, Minnesota, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Cincinatti, Miami, and Denver, 
  4. The three highest over/under games in Week 18 are Cincinnati-Pittsburgh, Carolina, Atlanta, and Minnesota-Detroit.  In addition, Baltimore has an implied total of about 30 points.  I would roll with players for these teams, as well as with Tampa Bay.  In particular, I would be looking hard at Russell Wilson (QB-Pittsburgh), George Pickens (WR-Pittsburgh), and Jaylen Warren (RB-Pittsburgh).  Pittsburgh will need to keep pace with Cincinnati’s offense, so there is serious fantasy point potential here. 
  5. And speaking of that game’s fantasy potential, Chase Brown (RB-Cincinnati) fantasy managers will be hoping he plays.  If not, Khalil Herbert (RB-Cincinnati) would start at RB.  It is a drop-off, but Herbert could still provide low-end RB2 stats. 
  6. I wonder if Joe Flacco (QB-Indianapolis) might be viewing Week 18 as his swan song.  It is highly unlikely that Anthony Richardson (QB-Indianapolis) will suit up.  The match-up against Jacksonville is quite enticing—their defense gives up the 2nd most fantasy points to the QB position.  If you find yourself in need of a QB with very high upside, Flacco certainly can offer just that.  With Flacco under center, I would also boost Michael Pittman (WR), Alec Pierce (WR), Josh Downs (WR), and even Adonai Mitchell (WR–the coaches may use Week 18 to help propel him into the 2025 season). 
  7. I wonder which completely-off-the-radar player(s) will have a great fantasy day in Week 18.  Buffalo will be playing back-ups at running back, but it may not be the ones you think (Ray Davis or Ty Johnson).  Keep an eye on Frank Gore Jr.  The opponent, New England, gives up the 7th most fantasy points to the RB position, so Gore Jr. could have a nice day.  Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams will be rolling with back-ups, and Blake Corum (RB) “could” have a solid day against Seattle’s defense, which is average against the RB position in fantasy.  However, Cody Schrader (RB), an undrafted rookie, could see more action than we think.  And then, there is the Philadelphia backfield; I think Will Shipley (RB) as opposed to Kenneth Gainwell (RB) may actually see the most carries against a favorable New York Giants defense. 
  8. I am a fan of Chig Okonkwo (TE-Tennessee) as long as Mason Rudolph (QB-Tennessee) is under center.  The problem with Week 18 is the coaching staff has stated that both Rudolph and Will Levis (QB-Tennessee) will see playing time; thus, I am fading Okonkwo, sadly.  In addition, be mindful of the weather for this game.  The Houston-Tennessee game has the look of a rainy and windy (gusts up to 40 mph) setting.  Calvin Ridley (WR-Tennessee) is the player most likely to suffer from the elements. 
  9. With Brock Purdy (QB-SF) ruled OUT, Deebo Samuel (WR-SF) ruled out, and George Kittle (TE-SF) looking very questionable this weekend against Arizona, it sure looks like it will be the Ricky Pearsall (WR-SF) and Isaac Guerendo (RB-SF) show.  It was quite apparent that SF wanted to unleash Pearsall in Week 17, and they did (141 yards and 1 TD).  However, we should also consider Jauan Jennings (WR-SF), as he was the target of 3 of Josh Dobbs’s (QB-SF) 4 pass attempts. 
  10. And finally…, I wonder why the math book went to the school counselor when it returned to school after winter break.  I guess it just had too many problems.