Weekend Wonderings-Week 18

By Winsto (01/06/2023)

  1. I wonder if people involved in fantasy football will show a little more appreciation to the risks that football players are exposed to on the field.  As encouraging news for Damar Hamlin’s recovery hopefully continues, we should all show respect to the players who play in such a physical and violent game that is football.  Yes, it is a game, but it is a game with serious risks, as demonstrated at around 8:55 p.m. EST on January 2, 2023 on the field of Paycor Stadium.
  2. When trying to project what will transpire in Week 18 in the AFC, I wonder how several scenarios will play out, as this will impact fantasy decisions.  If Kansas City defeats Las Vegas, it earns the #1 seed and bye.  In that scenario, Buffalo would be locked into the #2 seed, regardless of a win or loss in Week 18.  Thus, Buffalo could very well rest their starters against New England this weekend, as the Kansas City-Las Vegas game is Saturday.  BUT, if Kansas City loses, Buffalo has every incentive to defeat New England to lock up the #1 seed and bye.  Meanwhile, Cincinnati is locked into the #3 seed, BUT if they lose their match-up to Baltimore in Week 18 and wind up playing in the Wild Card round, the site of the game would be determined by a coin toss.  The Los Angeles Chargers are currently the #5 seed, but could drop to the #6 seed if they lose to Denver and Baltimore defeats Cincinnati.  The Baltimore-Cincinnati game is early, while the Los Angeles-Denver game is later, thus Los Angeles will know the outcome.  If Baltimore wins, the question here is does Los Angeles try to win in order to play the winner of the Tennessee-Jacksonville game as opposed to falling to #6 and having to play a seemingly stronger opponent in Cincinnati for the first round of the play-offs.  However, if Baltimore loses to Cincinnati, then Los Angeles is locked into the #5 seed and would likely rest their starters against Denver.  As for the 7th seed, New England, Miami, and Pittsburgh are all vying for it, so they will be playing to win.  In addition, those three teams will all be playing at the same time.  WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND, fantasy managers can trust players from Kansas City, Tennessee, Jacksonville, New England, Miami, and Pittsburgh for Week 18.   As for players from Buffalo, Cincinnati, Los Angeles Chargers, and Baltimore, fantasy managers should have contingency plans in case those teams choose to rest their starters.
  3. As for the NFC, it is also a bit complicated.  I wonder how coaches are going to approach it.  San Francisco and Dallas both have a chance at the #1 seed and bye, but that will depend on the outcome of the New York Giants-Philadelphia game, which is a later game in the afternoon.  HOWEVER, New York is locked into #6 seed and has nothing to play for, so the expectation is New York will be resting key starters, which gives Philadelphia a big advantage.  Even Vegas thinks this will happen, as Philadelphia is a 14 point favorite.  San Francisco and Dallas, who both play later along with Philadelphia, will be able to scoreboard check.  All of this means that San Francisco and Dallas may play the odds (assume Philadelphia will win) and rest key starters.  Meanwhile, Minnesota plays the early game and cannot get the #1 seed, but they can obtain the #2 seed.  In addition, Minnesota and San Francisco may value the #2 seed enough to play to win.  Tampa Bay is locked into the #4 seed and has nothing to gain in Week 18.  Seattle needs to defeat the Los Angeles Rams to keep their play-off hopes alive.  Detroit plays the night game against Green Bay, but cannot make the play-offs if Seattle wins, a result Detroit will know before they take the field Sunday night.  Green Bay, meanwhile, makes the play-offs with a victory.  WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND, fantasy managers can trust players from Seattle and Green Bay.  We should be able to trust Philadelphia players, but the game could become so lopsided that key starters could be removed.  Regarding Detroit, my guess is if they are knocked out of play-off contention (a Seattle victory), they will still try to win the game with their key players.  As for Minnesota, San Francisco, and Dallas, meanwhile, fantasy managers should have contingency plans in case those teams choose to rest their starters.  Regarding Tampa Bay and New York Giants–I cannot remotely envision Saquon Barkley (RB) playing, I would be making alternative arrangements right now.
  4. I wonder if Tyquan Thornton (WR-NE) may be a sneaky play against Buffalo.  Jakobi Meyers (WR-NE) will probably play, but he is banged up.  Thornton saw 7 targets in Week 16, and went for 3-60-1.  He actually almost had a 2nd TD as well. 
  5. I wonder if we should pay more attention to Tyler Higbee (TE-LAR) and Juwan Johnson (TE-NO).  As for Higbee, he faces a Seattle defense that gives up the most points to the tight end position, and Higbee has seen a 29% target share over the last 3 games, resulting in a 16-132-3 over that stretch.  Yes, he was disappointing in Week 17, but he still saw a 21% target share.  And again, Seattle has not been stout against the tight end position this season, and will also be down their best defensive player (Jordyn Brooks-LB) for the game.  As for Johnson, if we ignore the game against Cleveland (weather) and against San Francisco (top-tier defense), he has simply been relatively steady for the tight end position.  He has topped 40 yards in 5 of the last 7 games with 5 total TDs.  Only Travis Kelce (TE-KC) and George Kittle (TE-SF) have more TD receptions than Johnson on the season.  Yes, Johnson’s Week 18 opponent, Carolina, is pretty stout against the tight end position (8th best), but they can be exposed–see Shane Zylstra (TE-Det) in Week 16.
  6. I wonder what Jarrett Stidham (QB-LV) can do for an encore.  Make no mistake, I did not expect that type of performance (365-3-2 passing, 34 yards rushing) from Stidham in Week 17, especially against a stout San Francisco defense.  Now he faces a much softer defense in Kansas City.  “Usually,” defenses are prone to adjust once they have access to game-tape.  That said, I think Stidham, Josh Jacobs (RB), Davante Adams (WR), and Darren Waller (TE) could have a very nice afternoon here.  In deeper leagues, Mack Hollins (WR) and Hunter Renfroe (WR) could be solid as well.  IF Jacobs does not play, Zamir White (RB) may be an intriguing option here as well.
  7. In that same game, I wonder how many of us notice that Kansas City has an implied total of about 31, which would be the highest of any team for Week 18.  In other words, you are obviously starting Patrick Mahomes (QB) and Travis Kelce (TE), but you should strongly consider Jerick McKinnon (RB) (if you have not already been starting him) and Isiah Pacheco (RB).  In addition, given the uncertainty of Week 18, I would roll out JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR) and Kadarius Toney (WR), with Smith-Schuster having the safer floor and Toney the higher ceiling.  (I am expecting an increase in playing time for Toney, as Skyy Moore is out and Mecole Hardman will be on a snap count.)
  8. I wonder if we can really trust any running back in the New York Jets-Miami match-up.  Miami has a chance to get into the playoffs, but the split is pretty even between Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB) and Raheem Mostert (RB).  In addition, New York’s rush defense is average in total yards allowed, but top 10 in yards per carry allowed.  And, Miami will be starting Skylar Thompson (QB), so that may make it even more difficult to trust Wilson or Mostert.  On the New York side, Ty Johnson (RB) apparently got the start last week, furthering the confusion in this backfield between him, Zonovan Knight (RB), and Michael Carter (RB).  Miami’s defense is top 10 against total rushing yards allowed, but average in yards per carry allowed.  In essence, I would avoid both situations if possible, but if forced to pick for New York, I would still lean toward Knight.  For Miami, I would lean toward Wilson.
  9. I wonder if there is any fantasy value in the Houston-Indianapolis match-up (aside from DSTs).  Zach Moss (RB-Indianapolis) is the one player who may be able to have some success in this game.  He has seen double-digit carries in the last 3 games, and Houston’s defense is the worst in the league in total rushing yards allowed.
  10. AND FINALLY… I wonder if I would ever be able to give up football?  Probably not, as it is simply a habit I cannot kick.