By Winsto (12/30/2023)
Note: Due to traveling and scheduling conflict, this week’s article will just be more succinct than usual.
1.. According to the oddsmakers, the Lions-Cowboys game has the highest over-under. In other words, play your Lions and Cowboys that you would normally play. Yes, I know Dallas is a difficult match-up for TEs, but would you really bench Sam LaPorta here? I would not. I also know Detroit is a tough match-up for RBs, but with Rico Dowdle not playing, I would still be rolling with Tony Pollard if I normally played him. Additionally, Vegas has Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery at virtually the same odds to score a TD. They are both basically line-up locks for me.
2. For those of you involved with IDP leagues, if you are currently dissatisfied with one of your IDP plays for Week 17, you may consider looking at E. J. Speed (LB) from Indianapolis or Khaleke Hudson (LB) from Washington. Since playing almost every snap since the departure of Shaquille Leonard, Speed has had no fewer than 6 total tackles in his last four starts and no fewer than 10 total tackles in his last two starts. Additionally, he has actually outproduced his teammate, Zaire Franklin, in that same four game stretch. As for Hudson, his playing time is not quite full-time since taking over for the injured Jamin Davis (85% and 92%), but he has produced elite fantasy stats in those two games. Both Speed and Hudson have above average match-ups this week against the Raiders and 49ers respectively.
3. I wonder if the fantasy community will ever figure out the riddle of the Rams passing offense. Many have Puka Nacua ranked ahead of Cooper Kupp. It seems recency bias has contributed, as Nacua is coming off a monster game in Week 16. Still, Kupp did actually have more targets. Both should be good plays against a generous Giants secondary this week, but I still have Kupp higher. Additionally, I admit that I did not envision Demarcus Robinson becoming fantasy relevant, but he most certainly has, having had 44 or more receiving yards and 1 TD in each of his last four games. He is a solid flex option.
4. I wonder if Tyrod Taylor can help create more stability for the Giants offense, and with that, allow Saquon Barkley and Darren Waller to generate fantasy success. The Rams are a brutal matchup for Barkley, but a great matchup for Waller. Additionally, the Rams defensive secondary allows points. If Taylor can move the ball in the air, I do think Barkley can still produce despite the difficult matchup.
5. I wonder how the Houston passing attack will rebound with the return of C. J. Stroud. The opponent, Tennessee, does not have a secondary that we should shy away from. My assumption is Nico Collins should see more snaps after playing only about half of the snaps in Week 16, as he was returning from injury. Additionally, I am curious to see what the connection will be with Stroud and Noah Brown. In a pinch, I would roll with Brown as a flex and could be a great play—in fact, he is my Hail Mary play for the week.
6. I wonder if Mason Rudolph can continue his Christmas week magic even after Christmas and the name “Rudolph” has less significance. Seattle is not a difficult matchup for the passing attack, and the connection between Rudolph and George Pickens was excellent in Week 16. As for Pat Freiermuth, however, there was apparently no connection in Week 16, even though it was a plus matchup for him. I am not sure I would expect anything to change for Week 17.
7. As for the Kansas City offense…, I do not know what to tell you at this point. They are a mistake prone unit that continues to shoot themselves in their own foot. Simply put, the unit is collectively just not that good. However, I would still roll with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Isiah Pacheco (if he plays). Would we be surprised if they disappoint? Not really. Would we surprised if the offense scores over 40 points? Not really. Incidentally, if Pacheco misses and Clyde Edwards-Helaire plays, CEH is a flex option at best, even with Jerick McKinnon out, as you are simply hoping he finds the endzone.
8. I wonder if I am the only one who feels a little uneasy about starting Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs against New England. Look, you are starting them, obviously, but I have some reservations.
9. Raheem Mostert has 21 total TDs. Tyreek Hill has 1641 receiving yards and 12 TDs. They could be playing against the ‘85 Bears defense, and I am still starting them in fantasy championships. Do not get cute. Do not let recency bias get you with Baltimore’s defense. Yes, it is a good defense, but it is not invincible.
10. Speaking of recency bias, I am absolutely rolling with Brock Purdy against Washington. Do not let Week 16 influence your decision making. The reality is I would be starting every fantasy relevant player on San Francisco’s offense against Washington’s defense.
11. And finally…, I wonder why 2023 went like a blur. I guess my resolution must have been too low.
Happy New Year!