Weekend Wonderings-Week 17

And so, for many of us, we have reached the final week of fantasy football.  Many of you are vying to become fantasy football champions.  I wish you the best in your endeavors to take home the trophy, or whatever symbol of greatness you would receive if you are victorious.  HOWEVER, for many of you, there will still be Week 18 to decide the fate of your fantasy football team.  I will be here to help.  And with that….

1. In the Minnesota-Green Bay game, I wonder how many of us will roll the dice on Allen Lazard (WR-GB) if Christian Watson (WR-GB), who is currently questionable to play, is declared out.  If Watson is active, I would be hard pressed not to start him in this game.  Given Minnesota’s pass defense is 2nd worse in yards allowed while their run defense is average, this sets up nicely for the participants in Green Bay’s passing game (Watson, Lazard,  Romeo Daubs, and Aaron Rodgers).  In addition, this game has the third highest over-under line (47.5), with Green Bay favored by 3.  If Watson is out, I would play Lazard–he could wind up a top 15 WR play for the week.  Daubs, meanwhile, could be a sneaky play as well.  If Watson does play, Lazard is probably more a WR3.
2. I wonder how many of us have the bravery to start Donovan Knight (RB-NYJ) this week.  There was much disagreement between me and my colleagues in terms of how to rank him this week.  In the three games he played where Mike White (QB-NYJ) started, he out-carried all other running backs 46-22 and outgained them 230 yards to 101 yards on the ground.  However, in the last two games, with Zach Wilson (QB-NYJ) starting, he outcarried the other running backs 19 to 8 but only rushed for 21 yards compared to the other’s 28 yards.  He has also not reached 50% of the snaps in games in which Michael Carter (RB-NYJ) also played during this 5 game stretch.  The opponent this week is Seattle, whose defense has given up the 2nd most yards on the ground and the 4th most TDs on the ground.  I think it has been shown the New York’s offense is more capable, and much less anemic, under Mike White than Zach Wilson, so I would “think” the games with White starting are more pertinent here.  The reality is this is a potential smash spot for Knight, but there is absolutely considerable risk.  Despite Knight showing he is capable of catching out of the backfield (11 receptions for 83 yards during this 5 game stretch, the coaching staff still likes Carter in passing situations.  If Knight can start off strong, he has a legitimate chance here to help carry teams to fantasy championships.
3. I wonder how how many of us remotely considered the possibility that there would be fantasy relevant players on the Los Angeles Rams offense at this point in the season.  Cam Akers (RB) has a nice match-up against a porous Los Angeles Charger defense (2nd worst in yards per carry allowed).  I am a little lower on him than my colleagues, but I still have him as a top 20 running back this week.  That seemed pretty unlikely not too long ago.  And let us not overlook Tyler Higbee (TE).  I wrote about him earlier in the week, and his match-up looks a bit better, as Derwin James (DB-LAC) has been ruled out.
4. Now that Carson Wentz (QB-Was) is getting the start against Cleveland, I wonder how this really impacts the wide receiver position for the team.  In the 6 games Wentz started to start the season, Terry McLaurin (WR) topped 75 yards in 3 of them.  In the 8 games Taylor Heinike (QB-Was) started and finished, McLaurin topped 75 yards in 3 of them.  The biggest difference is the lowest yardage total McLaurin had during Wentz was 15 versus 48 under Heinike.  He did also see more targets with Heinike per game (6.2 targets with Wentz versus 8.4 targets with Heinike), but he also had to compete with J.D. McKissic for targets during Wentz’s 6 game stretch to start the year.  McKissic has not played since Week 8 and is out for the year.  Jahan Dotson (WR) saw success with Wentz, more in scoring than in yardage, when he and Wentz were on the field together (4 games) at the beginning of the year.  He never had more than 59 yards, but scored at least 1 TD in 3 of the 4 games.  In addition, Dotson has been on fire the last 3 games (237 total receiving yards and 1 TD in each game).  Curtis Samuel (WR-Was) definitely seems to have some rapport with Wentz, as he saw on average 8.3 targets per game in Wentz’s 6 starts earlier in the season, compared to 4.25 targets per game in Heinike’s full 8 games played.  He was also on the receiving end of Wentz’s TD pass in Week 16 after Heinike was pulled from the game.  I think Samuel becomes more fantasy relevant in deeper leagues.  I also think Logan Thomas (TE-Was) may have slightly more value in deeper leagues as well.  Washington’s Week 17 opponent is Cleveland, whose defense is top 10 against the pass across the board.  HOWEVER, keep in mind that Cleveland’s secondary can be exposed by quality passing attacks–the Joe Flacco led NYJ threw for over 300 yards and 4 TDs and the Tua led Miami offense threw for 285 yards and 3 TDs.  The question, really, comes down to Wentz.  The receiving corp on this team is upper tier.  Can Wentz just get them the ball?  With all of this in mind, I “think” Dotson is the toughest player to bench of this group, but there is risk.  One other stat to consider is this: in the 6 games Dotson has played 50 or more snaps (79% or more), he has scored double-digit fantasy points (standard scoring) in 5 of them.
5. Looking at the MNF match-up, I wonder how many Week 17 quarterback match-ups have Josh Allen (QB-Buf) versus Joe Burrow (QB-Cin) or Week 17 wide receiver match-ups have Stefon Diggs (WR-Buf) versus Jamar Chase (WR-Cin).  My guess is there are quite a few.
6. I wonder how much concern we should have with the skill position players in the San Francisco-Las Vegas match-up, considering that Jarrett Stidham will be leading the Las Vegas offense.  He has never started a game, and his career stats are 52.5% completion, 5.6 yards per attempt, 2 TDs and 4 INTs.  Those numbers do not instill confidence.  On the Las Vegas side, you almost have to stick with the talent of Davante Adams (WR) Josh Jacobs (RB), and maybe Darren Waller (TE) despite the San Francisco’s solid defense (elite against the run but average against the pass) but I would be hard pressed to start anyone else from that offense.  On the San Francisco side, the concern here is this game could get out of hand, and Christian McCaffrey (RB), George Kittle (TE), and Brandon Aiyuk (WR) may take a seat later in the game.  McCaffrey and Kittle cannot be benched, and if you have been using Aiyuk as of late, you are probably going to keep in your line-up.  Las Vegas’s defense is not good against the pass (6th worst in yards allowed) and are average against the run.  In addition, they are playing without there top two linebackers.  I think we may have to temper expectations for all of these player involved.  That said, if this game does get out of hand and San Francisco starts pulling key starters, it “could,” conversely, provide opportunities to Adams and Jacobs.
7. I wonder how many of us will remember one of the golden rules of fantasy football for this week, which may be your championship:  stick with the players who got you here.  That said, you can still tinker with the players who may have been on your team, but did not really help get you to this point.
8. I wonder if any of you noticed I did not write a reaction to TNF.  The reason is there was really not much to take away from a game where one team really had nothing to player for (Tennessee).  That said, I still have this distrust of Dallas’s offense.  Dak Prescott (QB) has at least 1 INT in the last 6 games, and 13 INTs in last 10 games.  It just seems like this offense, given the players, should be more consistent.  That said, they are only 1 of two teams to score over 50 points in a game this season.  (The other, of course, is the Los Angeles Rams in Week 16).
9. There will always be sneaky plays each week.  I wonder who the Hail Mary players will be for Week 17.  I mentioned some possible ones already, such as Romeo Daubs and Curtis Samuel, but I think there will be some others.  I would take a look at Russell Wilson (QB-Den)–I cannot believe I just typed that but his opponent is Kansas City, Greg Dortch (WR-Ari)–DeAndre Hopkins has been ruled out, and as always, Craig Reynolds (RB-Det)–(contingent on if Justin Jackson is inactive, as he is questionable) the coaches apparently hate fantasy managers who own D’Andre Swift, Jameson Williams (WR-Detroit)–there is too much talent there to continuously not be a factor.
10. And finally…I wonder if people who have their partners serve as their chauffeurs (designated drivers) for New Year’s Eve will then say  that their partners “drove them to drink.”

 

From us here at FantasyRooster.com, we wish you a safe and pleasant New Years.