Weekend Wonderings-Week 16 Holiday Edition

As we head into the holiday weekend, I present to you a special edition of Weekend Wonderings. 

1. As we process what we saw last night in the Jacksonville-New York Jets match-up, I wonder when was the last time we saw an exercise is absolute futility that was the Zach Wilson-led New York offense.  Wilson went for 92 yards passing and 1 INT.  That was, in two words, “not good.” Yes, the weather played a role, but Trevor Lawrence (229 passing, 51 rushing, 1 rushing TD 1 lost fumble) had solid night considering how touch New York’s defense has been.  I mean even Chris Streveler (the back-up QB in New York for those of you who do not know who he is, which is probably most of the football world) outplayed Zach Wilson, as Streveler went for 90 yards passing and 54 yards rushing.  Despite having an offense with some playmakers, such as Garrett Wilson, Zonovan Knight (seriously, check out his PFF grade), and others, no one in this offense is remotely usable in fantasy football as long as Zach Wilson is at quarterback.  Honestly, I cannot imagine Wilson getting another start this season.
2. I wonder how Miami is going to split the backfield between Raheem Mostert (RB) and Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB) if the latter returns from injury.  This is a nice match-up against a Green Bay defense that is 29th against the run (4th worst) in total rushing yards allowed and tied for 30th (3rd worst) in yards per carry allowed.  I think we saw Coach McDaniel make some adjustments last week against Buffalo, as Miami’s offense was more run-oriented than previous games.  In addition, only Kansas City is projected to score more points this week, according to Vegas odds.  The problem is this backfield is VERY tricky to predict.  If Wilson plays, I am guessing about a 60/40 split with Mostert leading the way.  If, however, Wilson does not play, Mostert is close to a must start.  What complicates this situation is Miami’s game is not until 1 p.m. EST on Sunday, which leaves only 3 games left to chose from if you are holding out hope Wilson does not play.  If you have a solid contingency plan in one of the last 3 games, then you have the luxury of waiting to see how this unfolds.  If you do not, then you have to ask yourself what you can live with.  If Wilson plays, I see Mostert as a mid RB3, but if Wilson sits, I think Mostert as a mid RB2.  As for Wilson, he is a solid flex/RB4 if he plays.
3. I wonder how much of an impact the weather will have in Week 16.  Two games are standing out that will see the worst of it:  NO-Cle and Buf-Chi, with the game in Cleveland projected to be the worst.  Both games will see frigid weather, but the wind will also have an impact, especially in Cleveland.  I can envision heavier usage of Nick Chubb (RB-Cleveland), Alvin Kamara (RB-New Orleans), Taysom Hill (QB/TE-New Orleans), and even Kareem Hunt (RB-Cleveland).  Cleveland is 30th (3rd worst) in yards per carry allowed and has given up the 3rd most rushing TDs.  New Orleans, meanwhile is not as stout against the run (23rd) as it is against the pass (6th).  As for the passing attacks from both teams, fantasy managers should consider alternative options–none of the wide receivers are in my top 25.  It is hard to predict for certain, but with an over/under of 32 (Cleveland favored by 3), which is the lowest of the week, Vegas thinks points will not be plentiful.  I would say, however, that the the other tight ends here,  could be relevant, as the idea is more short passes will happen.  David Njoku (TE-Cleveland) and Juwan Johnson (TE-New Orleans) may make some noise, but both defenses have proven to be pretty good against opponents tight ends.  As for the Buffalo-Chicago match-up, the weather will be a factor, but it may not be as much of a factor as the New Orleans-Cleveland game.  I think the only players I would actually downgrade are the Buffalo receivers Stefon Diggs (slightly) and Gabe Davis.  Josh Allen (QB) can provide solid fantasy production from the ground, making him less reliant on passing yards.  The same holds true for Josh Fields (QB).  Chicago has given up the most rushing TDs on the season (24), and Buffalo’s rush defense is not overly imposing.  In other words, one or more of the running backs in this game may pop.  Devin Singletary, James Cook, David Montgomery, and Khalil Hebert are solid plays here.  Despite the conditions, both Cole Kmet and Dawson Knox are gambles, as both defenses in this game are upper tier in stopping the tight end.
4. Many leagues are now in play-off mode.  I wonder how many people finalizing their play-off lineups will abide by a basic belief I have regarding fantasy football:  stick with the players who got you there. 
5. In looking at the Seattle-Kansas City match-up, I wonder how many TDs will be scored in this game.  The over/under is 49.5, with Kansas City favored by 10.  Kansas City tends to play down to their opponents (see last two weeks against Denver and Houston), so Seattle may score more than what is implied.  In short, I want to start players in this game.  Aside from the obvious (Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Kenneth Walker III, and D. J. Metcalf), I would also put in Geno Smith–probably already obvious, JuJu Smith-Schuster–he’s has been fairly consistent recently in targets, Jerick McKinnon–I would chase the recent TDs, Isiah Pacheco–he has a solid floor, Noah Fant–there are worse TE streaming options, and even Marquise Goodwin–or whoever lines up at wide receiver opposite Metcalf, as Goodwin (Questionable) looks to be a true game-time decision.
6. I wonder if J.K. Dobbins (RB-Baltimore) can keep up this efficiency.  He himself admits that he is not 100%, and the casual observer can see that his speed has not fully returned.  And with all of that considered, he is averaging 8.75 yards per carry since his return.  Granted, that is a small sample size (28 carries) against weaker run defenses (Pittsburgh and Cleveland), but it is not like Week 16 opponent, Atlanta, has a run defense you want to shy away from–it is average.  And, he has done this with Tyler Huntley playing quarterback.  In addition, Atlanta, with rookie Desmond Ridder (QB) is not going to air it out; they will run.  The problem is Baltimore has the 3rd best rush defense in the league; thus, negative game script should not be an issue here for Dobbins.  Look, there is still the concern of him splitting carries with Gus Edwards and snaps with Edwards and Justice Hill.  He has played the most snaps of the three over the last two weeks, but he has not topped 43% in either of those games.  There is also the concern that he will not be catching passes, as he has only seen 1 target in the last 2 games.  But, if he can even somewhat maintain that efficiency, he will continue to be a solid play and borderline RB2.  I want to put him higher, but the risk of him splitting time and not catching passes is built into the prediction.
7. Speaking of this same game, I wonder how effective Atlanta really will be at running the ball against Baltimore.  Tyler Allgeier (17-139-1)and Cordarrelle Patterson (14-52-1) both had solid games on the ground in Week 15 against New Orleans, whose total defense is solid (better against the pass than the run, though).  Though Baltimore’s run defense is better, Baltimore’s offense, under Tyler Huntley, is probably a downgrade compared to the New Orleans offense.  Thus, I still think this will be a close game, where Atlanta will not have to abandon the run.  Expectations for Allgeier and Patterson should be tempered, but they are both still fantasy relevant here.
8. I wonder how the back-up quarterbacks will impact the offenses in Week 16.  I have already discussed Huntley (downgrade all pass catchers) to an extent.  Mark Andrews had been fairly unexciting in recent games with Huntley, but Atlanta has  been very generous to the tight end position.  I say Huntley finds Andrews for a score here.  As for Gardner Minshew starting for an injured Jalen Hurts, I would not downgrade the pass catchers that much.  The reality is this is a good offense.  As long as Minshew is simply competent, the skill position players should have success.  Dallas’s defense has looked a little more flawed, recently, and they were already bottom 3rd in run defense.  Between that and less chance of Gardner Minshew taking red zone carries, Miles Sander (RB) may have a nice little game.  As for the Trace McSorley (QB) led Arizona offense, avoid everyone not named James Conner (RB) and D’Andre Hopkins (WR).  And what about Tennessee, under Malik Willis (QB)?  Derrick Henry (RB) against Houston is, to put it simply, a must start, regardless of who is quarterback.  We have already seen this happen, as Willis started against Houston earlier in the year, and Henry went for 32-219-2 on the ground.  Tennessee is down a few offensive linemen, but Henry should still have success.  As for the other skill position players on Tennessee’s offense, I would look elsewhere.
9. The reality is that if you are still playing and are in your league’s playoffs, then you are probably not looking for Hail Mary plays.  But, in case I am wrong, there will be some players who will pop in Week 16 that we may be overlooking.  I wonder who this weekend’s Hail Marys will be.  Marquise Goodwin (WR-Seattle) is an obvious choice against Kansas City’s secondary, but what if he actually misses the game?  I will not lie to you: the remaining options do not shout “play me.”  Dareke Young (rookie with no receptions in 2022), Penny Hart (3rd year player with 10 receptions in 3 years–2 this year), and former Minnesota 1st round pick Laquon Treadwell.  If you are desperate, in a deep league, and Goodwin does not play, Treadwell epitomizes the Hail Mary play.  In addition, Noah Fant (TE) and even Will Dissly (TE) become more interesting without Goodwin.  Pivoting to the other top projected scoring game, Romeo Daubs (WR) could have a solid game against a somewhat suspect Miami secondary.  Most people rushed to grab Zach Moss (RB-Indianapolis) when news broke that Jonathan Taylor will miss the remainder of the season, but I think Deon Jackson (RB) will have a role.  I also think he looks like the more explosive of the two, though if he fumbles again, he could be benched indefinitely.  I think the New York Giants will have to throw to keep up with Minnesota.  Darius Slayton (WR) should have a solid game, but so could Richie James (WR) and Daniel Bellinger (TE).  In addition, Daniel Jones (QB) could find some success as well.  And speaking of unexpected quarterbacks who could prove to fantasy worthy in Week 16, I suppose I will circle back to Garner Minshew (QB), who in 2-QB leagues could have some value.  I have him at 25.
10. And finally… I wonder why there is so much debate as to whether or not Die Hard (1988) is an actual Christmas movie while I see very little discussion regarding Lethal Weapon (1987), which is also an action movie set at Christmas time.  And, Lethal Weapon came out before Die Hard.  For the record, I am of the opinion that both would count as Christmas movies.