By Winsto (12/23/2023)
1..I wonder if I am ranking Pat Freiermuth too low in my TE rankings for Week 16. Cincinatti gives up the 2nd most fantasy points to the position. In addition, the last time (and only time from what I can ascertain) Mason Rudolph started a game with Freiermuth, the latter had an 18% target share. That said, this season has seemed to provide more depth at the TE position compared to the past, so I cannot really bump Freiermuth up. Just know that he could be in line for a solid day.
2. I honestly do not know what to expect from Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson against the Commanders. Yes, the Commanders defense is very generous against the pass. They have given up the 3rd most passing yards and most passing TDs in the league. Against the run, they have allowed at least 90 yards rushing to the running back position in each of their last 6 games as well as allowed at least 1 rushing/receiving TD to the running back position during that same stretch. In addition, they give up 4.5 yards per carry (6th worst) on the season. These numbers scream “play Hall and Wilson.” Many in the fantasy community believe Hall and Wilson are solid plays here. However, I still have serious reservations about whether or not this Trevor Siemian led 2023 Jets offense can do anything with this opportunity. I cannot even believe what I am about to type here: “I think I would have more belief if Zach Wilson was starting.” But, he will miss Week 16, so the fate of Hall and Wilson are in the hands of Siemian. That does not exude much confidence. In PPR, maybe they are still solid options, but in standard scoring, they are a hard play, despite the great match-up. I am not saying bench them for anybody, but I would at least look hard at your other players and consider possibilities.
3, I wonder how many people realize that even if you randomly flip a normal coin 50 times, if heads comes up 49 straight times, the chance of heads coming up on the 50th attempt is still 50%. Each event is separate from each other, thus the string of heads showing up is irrelevant for each flip. Why am I bringing this up? Well, my dear reader, I bring this up for Week 16 because Boston Scott is playing the Giants. If you are unaware, Boston Scott has scored at least 1 TD in EVERY game he has played against the Giants. And, I am not talking about 3-4 games. Oh no, I am talking about NINE games, nine games of at least 1 TD for Scott. Again, each game is like a coin flip: they are independent of previous games. Still, we have to wonder if the coaching staff may try to keep the streak going, simply because of the absurdity. If you are in desperate need of a Flex option, I present to you Boston Scott. He is my Hail Mary play of Week 16.
4. Then, there is the flip side to this: Saquon Barkley has not scored a TD against Philadelphia since the 2019 season. Vegas is not predicting this game to be close, with a 13.5 point spread. The Giants offense has given up the most sacks in the league: 76 (which is 15 more than the 2nd most sacks allowed, the Jets offense.) I mention sacks here because they are simply drive killers. If this game gets out of hand, Barkley may see a reduced role. And I have not even mentioned yet that the Eagles defense has only given up 9 rushing TDs on the season. The real question here is will Tommy DeVito be able to exploit and exploitable Eagles secondary enough to give Barkley enough opportunities with the ball in his hands. Game-script can be unpredictable. What we think will happen in an NFL game does not always happen. Barkley is not necessarily a must start, but I would not go out of my way to bench him, either.
5. Jonathan Taylor looks likely to return from injury for Week 16. He is not an automatic starter for me against a tough Falcons rush defense that has given up the 2nd fewest rushing TDs on the season (5). In addition, since he is coming back from injury, I would be very surprised to see him get the lion’s share of carries. I would expect Zack Moss (if he plays) and/or Trey Sermon/Tyler Goodson to get some work to help ease Taylor back.
6. Just to be clear, play Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and James Cook against the Chargers. Yes, Diggs has underperformed in 4 out of his last 5 games, but the Chargers defense gives up the 3rd most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. The Chargers defense has given up the most passing yards on the season and 6th most passing TDs. As for Cook, he has 5 straight games with over 100 combined rushing/receiving yards. Don’t get cute because he does not get as many goal-line carries as you would like. Incidentally, Latavius Murray is not the worst desperation play for deeper leagues.
7. There is a chance Ty Chandler is simply a flash in the pan. Then again, it is hard to ignore a RB who gets 23 of the 24 rushing attempts for a team, as he did in Week 15. And, he made did well with those attempts (132 yards and a TD). He also added 3 receptions for 25 yards on 4 targets—no other running back had a target. The issue is Week 16’s opponent, the Lions defense, has given up the 8th fewest total rushing yards and the 6th fewest YPC (3.8). HOWEVER, the Lions have also given up 14 rushing TDs, which is 9th MOST in the league. If Alexander Mattison winds up being active for the game, I would be hesitant to play Chandler even if he seems to have been declared the starter. But, if Mattison sits, then the amount of touches seemingly guaranteed to Chandler makes me more willing to roll the dice here.
8. Staying in that same offense, I wonder what we do with Jordan Addison. He is coming off a great week (111 receiving yards and 2 TD), but that great week was based on 6 targets. He was 3rd on the team in targets. Now, Detroit’s defense is quite generous to the wide receiver position (7th most points allowed), but we should not consider Addison an automatic start. For me, he is still a borderline WR2/WR3. As for Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, in addition to Addison, the good news is Nick Mullens seems like he is able to support their fantasy prospects.
9. And since this game has so many fantasy relevant players in it, I would be remissed if I did not mention the David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs dichotomy. There is no real discussion here: you play them both. Yes, the Vikings rush defense is legitimate—5th fewest total rushing yards and tied for 4th fewest rushing TDs (8). But you know what else is legitimate? The Lions rushing offense—2nd most rushing yards in the league. They are both higher end RB2s for me this week.
10. And finally…, I wonder how many of us will be subscribing to Peacock to watch the Bills-Chargers game. Don’t people realize that we should never mix football with Peacock, because it always fowls!