By Winsto (12/16/2023)
1..I wonder how many people will be benching Patrick Mahomes against New England in New England. New England’s defense has allowed the 11th fewest passing yards and 5th fewest TD passes allowed. Honestly, I understand. The reality that we face in 2023 is that, simply put, the Kansas City offense is just not as good as in the past 5 years. Mahomes is on pace for his worst season since he became the starter. His wide receiver unit (aside from Rashee Rice) has struggled tremendously, which has not helped matters. I would not blame you if you decided to go with guys like Matthew Stafford (against Washington’s porous secondary—4th most passing yards and most TD passes allowed) or Sam Howell (against the Rams forgiving secondary, though as bad—16th most passing yards and 18th most TD passes allowed). Just to be clear, though, Mahomes is still averaging more passing yards, more TDs, the same INTs, and more rushing yards per game than Matthew Stafford on the season. In addition, Mahomes is averaging only five less passing yards, more TDs, less INTs, and more rushing yards per game than Sam Howell on the season. Thus, what I am saying is even in a “down year” for Mahomes, he is still producing solid stats. Now, obviously “solid stats” are not what fantasy managers were looking for when they drafted Mahomes, so I get the frustration. I get that both Howell and Stafford have much better match-ups. I get that Stafford has been on fire, throwing for no less than 3 TDs in each of his pass 3 games, games that include opponents such as Cleveland and Baltimore. So again, I get it. I get it. Kansas City’s offense is what it is. It is not elite, but it is still decent—11th in total TDs and 6th in passing TDs. Both of those numbers are higher than the Commanders and Rams, by the way. Still, based on the match-ups, our brain would say to bench Mahomes. At this point in the season, it is hard to envision the Chiefs offense to all of a sudden start firing on all cylinders, or at least on a few more cylinders than what it has been doing. Yet, sometimes, believe it or not my dear reader, I can be wrong. With Mahomes, as well as with many other players, we have to make fantasy decisions where our brain and our heart/gut disagree. And to let you in on a little secret, I do not always listen to my brain, as demonstrated by my rankings. But again, I would not argue if you were faced with some variation of this decision and decided to start Stafford or Howell. I would not argue in the least.
2. Staying on the topic of QBs, with the fantasy playoffs starting for many of you, I wonder how many fantasy managers will be forced to put their faith in Jake Browning or even Joe Flacco. Both have been tremendous in the last two weeks. We see it time and time again in fantasy football: a player comes out of nowhere at leads fantasy managers to championships. Maybe one, or even both, of these QBs are those such players in 2023.
3. I wonder if Tyreek Hill may sit against the Jets in Week 15. He looks truly questionable. If he does, that gives me serious pause in starting Tua Tagovailoa, as Miami’s offense simply looked ordinary without Hill in Week 14 against the Titans. The Jets defense tends to make ordinary offenses look bad. Despite that, Raheem Mostert is unbenchable. Yes, he is no longer getting many receptions, but he is making up for it with getting into the endzone. And, despite the Jets defense being very good against the pass, they are much more vulnerable against the rush. As for De’Von Achane, he is listed as Questionable. Even if he plays, I am still firing up Mostert. As for Achane if he plays, you should know the drill by now: very low floor and very high ceiling. He is one of the biggest risk/reward players in fantasy in 2023. For me, the reward is worth the risk.
4. In that same game, I wonder if I can trust the Jets offense to be somewhat competent. My initial response, simply put, is no. No, I do not trust the Jets offense. Still, if you have suffered through the misery of watching Breece Hall or Garrett Wilson on this team, and have somehow made the playoffs, then kudos to you, my dear reader. As always with Hall and Wilson, in standard scoring leagues, the hope is they find the endzone. In PPR scoring, both have more value.
5. If you are in dire need of a starter this week, may I suggest my weekly Hail Mary plays: Jerick McKinnon (if available), Noah Brown (Nico Collins is Out), Chris Rodriguez Jr., Patrick Taylor (if Aaron Jones or A.J. Dillon both do not play), Xavier Hutchinson (actually saw most snaps for Houston in Week 14), or Jalin Hyatt.
6. I wonder do not wonder how the split will be between David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. You know how this works now. Montgomery and Gibbs can co-exist. You are just hoping Detroit’s offense is efficient enough so that they can both have success; otherwise, one if not both will let you down.
7. Anyone else notice that Jerome Ford has had nine red zone looks since Week 9; he has had 2 total TDs during that stretch. Kareem Hunt has had 13 red zone looks since week 9. He has 3 total TDs during that stretch. What is more interesting is that all of Hunt’s TDs during that stretch are from rushing. The point here is that Hunt looks likely to continue to be a source of frustration for Ford fantasy managers.
8. If you have a skill position player for San Francisco, you start them. That is all.
9. I could see Chase Brown being a sneaky flex play in deeper leagues. Cincinnati’s opponent, Minnesota, is very stingy against the run. Brown may be used more out of the backfield in the passing game here. Again, though, this is for deeper leagues, as Joe Mixon is still going to handle the majority of work. In that same game, Ty Chandler is an interesting option in standard size leagues. He dominated the snaps after Alexander Mattison went down in Week 14. The Bengals rush defense is below average. You could do worse than start Chandler here.
10. And finally…, I saw a bee hive that had no exit the other day. I wondered how that could be. It was truly un-bee-leavable!