By Winsto (12/08/2023)
1..I wonder how many of us, including the people in Las Vegas, as the how strong the Patriots came out firing Thursday night against the Steelers. Bailey Zappe is not someone I would consider starting or streaming, unless in the deepest of leagues, but he did provide enough of a spark to provide some hope for Rhamondre Stevenson (when he returns) and Ezekiel Elliot (until Stevenson returns). I still would not trust the pass catchers here, though JuJu Smith-Schuster could provide some use in deeper leagues. Hunter Henry may also see a bump in TDs, though understand that he was only targeted 3 times in this game. Of course, the issue with the Patriots is the remaining defenses on the schedule are not easy (KC, Denver, Buffalo, and NY Jets), so we must temper our expectations.
As for Pittsburgh, aside from Baltimore in Week 18, the remaining defenses are not ones to shy away from. That said, a Mitch Trubisky-led offense will limit the ceilings of the skill position players.
2. I wonder how many fantasy managers will rush to grab Clyde Edwards-Helaire now that Isiah Pacheco has been officially ruled out for Week 14. (Hopefully, this is just a one game absence, though there is a little concern that Coach Andy Reid did not immediately rule out the possibility of an IR stint.) To refresh your memory, CEH, especially for Chiefs fans, represents a huge draft mistake that was made in 2020, as was the 32nd pick in the 1st round. Incidentally, the next two players immediately taken after him were as follows: Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman Jr. Ummm…, I am pretty sure those players could be useful to this offense right now. In addition, CEH was drafted ahead of D’Andre Swift and Jonathan Taylor. Yep, let us just say he is not a fan favorite. Look, he is a serviceable running back, but he has not lived up to his draft stock. In addition, Jerick McKinnon is going to play a role, and honestly, I think McKinnon will be the more valuable of the two, as he has had red zone success in the past and could see 5+ targets here. This is going to be a committee. I think if you decide to play one, you are really hoping for a TD, as there is limited upside with both. The reality is non-Isiah Pacheco running backs for Kansas City have averaged 3.2 YPC this season—Pacheco is averaging 4.4 YPC this season. Oh, and by the way, there is also another variable here: rookie Deneric Prince. It looks like he will be elevated from the practice squad (rather than La’Michal Perine). That news in itself is interesting enough to make me suspect that Prince may factor into this equation more than many may expect. Prince made some noise in training camp but seemed to fade during the preseason and was eventually cut and signed to the practice squad. He has some burst and quickness and could be in the mix as well.
3. I wonder how much of a spark Justin Jefferson’s return will give the Vikings offense. Joshua Dobbs is coming off a, in two words, not good performance in Week 12. Minnesota had the Bye week to consider alternatives but decided to stay with Dobbs (at least for the time being). Jefferson is a difference maker, that is apparent. Don’t overthink this: start Jefferson. With a healthy Jefferson as the #1 option, it takes off some of the pressure of the talented rookie, Jordan Addison, trying to fill that role. It should also create more windows for T.J. Hockenson. This is an offense loaded with weapons. Dobbs just needs to get the ball to those weapons. I think that he can. An offense loaded with playmakers can make non-elite QBs look good. I have Dobbs ranked 18th this week, and that is only to hedge on the possibility his leash is short, given the benching talk during the Bye week. I think he could approach a top 10 QB finish for Week 14 if he can shake off Week 12’s performance. As for Jefferson and Hockenson, you are playing them. Do not overthink this. Alexander Mattison, meanwhile, should also get a boost. He seems to have held off the Ty Chandler talk, at least for the time being. Jordan Addison is a low floor flex who could also take one catch to the house.
4. If you are looking for Hail Mary plays for Week 14, here are a few I would suggest: Elijah Moore (if Amari Cooper is out and Joe Flacco is starting), Jalin Hyatt (risky but with upside) Jonathan Mingo (steady but limited ceiling), Dontayvion Wicks (assuming Christian Watson does not play), and Parker Washington (if Trevor Lawrence does play).
5. I wonder how many people recognize that the Jets’ defense is actually average against the Tight End. Dalton Schultz is Out for Week 14, meaning Brevin Jordan will start. Jordan is coming off a 3 reception, 64 yard receiving game on 5 targets. I have him at TE14.
6. On a related note, I wonder what we should expect from the Houston offense, not only for Week 14, but also for the remainder of the season. The loss of Tank Dell (sigh) is significant. C. J. Stroud will probably see a slight hit in production. Perhaps more targets will go to the RBs to compensate, which should benefit Devin Singletary the most. We saw Nico Collins gobble up targets and yards once Dell left the game in Week 13. I do suspect, however, that other players will benefit, fantasy-wise. Call me stubborn, but I cannot ignore the two game stretch of Noah Brown (13 receptions on 14 targets, 325 combined receiving yards, and 1 TD) back in Weeks 9-10. If he is out there on waivers, which is very possible given his 0 reception game in Week 13, I would grab him. He may not be a great play this week against the Jets, but his remaining schedule has some mostly nice matchups.
7. I wonder if anyone else noticed the “significant amount” of playing time Chase Brown actually received in the Cincinatti-Jacksonville game was 11 snaps. Joe Mixon played 52 snaps. Chase Brown looked good, and he may be the lead back in 2024, but as long as Cincinatti is in contention 2023, Mixon will probably remain the back. That was apparent in this game as Mixon dominated 2nd half snaps when it appeared the Bengals had a chance to win the game.
And speaking of the Bengals, Jake Browning may prove to be good enough to keep this offense afloat. I do need to see more from him, however, to consider him in fantasy. But, what is doing is getting the ball to the playmakers on offense. Ja’Marr Chase fantasy managers rejoice! As for Tee Higgins fantasy managers, I think your time for rejoicing is coming, and it may as early as this Sunday against the Colts.
8. I wonder how the Rams-Ravens game will play out. The Rams are an interesting team, as they have shown, at times, the ability to put up points. Kyren Williams continues to put up fantasy stats and is a line-up lock, regardless of the match-up. As for the receivers, it does look like Puka Nacua has overtaken Cooper Kupp in the pecking order, as the former has outproduced the latter in the last 3 games and 5 of the last 6. This week’s match-up against Baltimore’s defense is rough (1st in yards per attempt and TD passes allowed), but last week’s date with Cleveland’s defense proved surmountable. I am interested to see what happens here.
9. I am also interested to see Baltimore’s offense coming out of their Bye week. Will Keaton Mitchell get more snaps? He has already seen his snap share continuously rise the last 4 games, and he actually had the most snaps out of any of the RBs in Week 12. Gus Edwards will probably still be the red zone/TD guy, but Baltimore would be wise to find more ways to manufacture touches for Mitchell. They will try to find that balance of giving Mitchell enough touches while also protecting his health—remember, Mitchell is 5’8” and 180 lbs. Justice Hill, meanwhile, will probably still have a 3rd down role, as Mitchell’s pass protection still needs work. As for the passing attack, Baltimore has now had a Bye week to prepare for the non-Mark Andrews offense. The Rams are fairly solid against the pass (12th in YPA and 4th in TD passes allowed), but they are susceptible to the tight end position (giving up 4th most fantasy points). Isaiah Likely could have a sneaky good day here, if he gets the targets. Zay Flowers is a solid play in PPR and a decent flex in standard scoring.
10. And finally…, the other day, I saw a man wearing only one snow boot. I guess there must have only been a 50% chance of snow that day.