Weekend Wonderings-Week 14

By Winsto (12/10/2022)

  1. In the New York Jets-Buffalo Bills match-up, you are starting Stefon Diggs (WR-Buffalo), Josh Allen (QB-Buffalo), and Garrett Wilson (WR-NYJ).  There are questions about the other players.  I wonder how many touches the less obvious players like James Cook (RB-Buf) and Zonovan Knight (RB-NYJ) are going to receive.  Cook is coming off a 20 touch game (105 total yards) in Week 13 where he played 43% of the snaps, but in Week 12, he only had 4 touches for 18 total yards and played only 18% of the snaps.  He had not played over 25% of the snaps in any game until Week 14.  You may consider holding off on him until you see more consistency.  As for Knight, Michael Carter (RB-NYJ) is not on the injury report for the game, so he may take away some playing time.  Still, Knight is the back I would play out of New York’s backfield.  I have discussed in previous columns how the coaching staff simply does not view Carter as anything more than a committee back.  Meanwhile, Knight had 20 touches for 108 total yards in Week 13 in basically his second game of his career.  (Carter has not had a game with 20 touches at all in 2022, and only had 2 games of 20 touches in all of 2021 when his competition was Tevin Coleman, Ty Johnson, Austin Walter, and La’Mical Perine.)
  2. And staying in that same game, I really wonder how Gabe Davis (WR-Buffalo) is going to be able to do.  As discussed before, Buffalo is not passing as much since their Bye week.  Davis could always get a deep play, but I am concerned the floor is very low for him in this game.  New York’s secondary is 4th best in the league in yards allowed and tied for 3rd best in TD passes allowed.
  3. I wonder if people realize how quirky football can be.  Patrick Mahomes (QB-KC) has never defeated a Joe Burrow-led Cincinnati (0-3), but Joe Burrow (QB) has never defeated Cleveland (0-4), a team that has never defeated a Mahomes-led Kansas City.  Cincinnati hosts Cleveland tomorrow and is favored by 5.5, so it should be interesting.
  4. I, like many in the fantasy football community, will be looking at the Minnesota-Detroit game for fantasy gold.  I wonder how much playing time the coaches will allow Jameson Williams (WR-Detroit).  His upside in this potential shoot-out (over-under is 51.5) is absolutely tantalizing.  If we only had a little more clarity in to how much Jameson would play, it would be extremely helpful.  If you are planning to start a receiver who is averaging 3-5 receptions and 40-50 yards with low TD potential, you may consider living life on the fantasy edge with Williams.  He has the speed to make one play worth it.  Just understand that there is zero floor here, which is why there is risk.
  5. Kansas City’s defense is 11th worst in passing yards allowed and tied for worst in TD passes allowed (24).  Denver’s offense 12th worst in passing yards and is tied for worst in passing TDs (8).  A classic moveable object versus stoppable force situation presents itself in Week 14, as these two units square off.  I wonder how this is going to play out.  The obvious idea here is that Jerry Jeudy (WR-Denver) and even Greg Dulcich (TE-Denver) are nice plays, as Courtland Sutton (WR-Denver) is out.  And that may be true, but it is very hard to have any faith in Denver’s skill position players right now.  Denver has played 12 games, and the offense has scored a total of 14 TDs (6 rushing and 8 receiving).  Jeudy and Dulcich should get targets and receptions, so there is that, but the upside here is probably going to be very limited.
  6. In that same game, you actually do have the immovable object versus an unstoppable force situation on the other side, as Kansas City’s offense squares off against Denver’s defense. Do not get cute and bench Patrick Mahomes (QB-KC) or Travis Kelce (TE-KC).  Stay with the talent, regardless of the opponent.   I also suggest sticking with Isiah Pacheco (RB-KC) here as well, as despite Denver’s stout defense, it is allowing an average 4.5 yards per carry, which incidentally is worse than Kansas City’s defense of allowing 4.4 yards per carry.  The player I wonder about on Kansas City’s side is JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR).  I am apparently stubborn, as I am doubling down on him and believe he may find some success against Denver.  Look, this is more of a gut call, as I saw a connection develop between Mahomes and Smith-Schuster before the latter exited with a head injury in Week 10.  He played sparingly in Week 12, and then briefly left Week 13 in the second quarter after accounting for 35 receiving yards.  He did not record another reception after that exit.  I think Kansas City’s offense will be on the field much more against Denver than it was against Cincinnati in Week 13, as Cincinnati was able to control the time of possession in that game.  Denver will not be able to do that.
  7. I had thoughts on several backfields yesterday, and I still have some questions.  I do wonder what is going to happen in the backfields of Miami, Detroit, and Seattle.  My best guesses here are Jeff Wilson Jr. over Raheem Mostert, D’Andre Swift enters the circle of trust (please), and Travis Homer has the safest floor.  But please note, that Seattle backfield could be unpredictable, even after the game-day roster is announced.
  8. Regarding the Baltimore-Pittsburgh game, I wonder if George Pickens (WR-Pit) may have a bit of a rebound game, as he had an extremely disappointing game in Week 13 (1 reception for 2 yards) against a porous Atlanta secondary, even with A. J. Terrell’s (DB-Atl) return. He was vocal about not getting the ball afterwards, so Kenny Pickett (QB-Pit) and the offensive coaching staff could make a concerted effort to right that wrong.  Still, we are talking about a Pittsburgh offense that, since the Chase Claypool trade, has averaged 209 yards passing and 0.5 passing TDs (4 games).  Thus, I think Pickens will have a solid game (60 receiving yards and 0.5 TD), but the upside here is limited.
  9. I wonder who the sneaky super-deep league Hail Marys could be in Week 14.  Josh Palmer (WR-LAC) could still be in play, even with a Keenan Allen and the returning Mike Williams.  The Miami-Los Angeles game has the highest over-under (53.5).  In addition, it is not like Allen and Williams have been the models of health this season.  I am also looking at players like Chuba Hubbard (RB-Carolina).  Seattle gives up yards on the ground, and Foreman is a little nicked up.  He may be spelled a little more than usual by Hubbard.  I am also looking at Malik Davis (RB-Dallas).  Against Houston, Dallas may find itself in a very comfortable lead and bring him in.  What about Greg Dortch (WR-Arizona)?  Rondale Moore will be out, and you would think Bill Belichick will focus on containing DeAndre Hopkins (WR-Ari).  Dortch may get some opportunities here.
  10. And finally… I wonder, if you clean out your vacuum cleaner, do you, in essence, become the vacuum cleaner?