By Winsto (12/02/2023)
1..I wonder if we should be bumping Amari Cooper up with Joe Flacco starting for Cleveland in Week 13. In Flacco’s three games starting for the New York Jets in 2022, the alpha receiver on the team (Garrett Wilson) saw 33 targets. Amari Cooper is the alpha receiver on the Browns. In addition, Flacco targeted the starting tight end (Tyler Conklin) 24 times in those same three games; thus, David Njoku could be a major beneficiary as well.
2. Cleveland’s opponent, the Rams, will have their work cut out for them. The defense for the Browns is tied for giving up the fewest passing TDs on the season (10), gives up the lowest passing percentage (55.6%), and give up the 2nd fewest yards per attempt (5.5). Given that Cooper Kupp (has not topped 50 yards receiving in a game in 5 straight weeks) and Puka Nacua (has averaged 43 yards receiving in last 4 weeks with 1 TD reception total) have not been setting the fantasy world on fire of late, I would not be expecting ceiling games from either. They are not line-up locks for Week 13. Kyren Williams, however, is a different story, as the rushing defense for the Browns is average, giving up 4.2 yards per carry and having allowed 12 rushing TDs this season (tied for 8th most). Williams is a line-up lock for me.
3. Chris Olave looks likely to play against the Lions (as of this writing). He was having himself a huge game in Week 12 before getting knocked out of the game with a concussion. Fire him up against a Detroit defense that is vulnerable to the pass. Additionally, Juwan Johnson could be a sneaky TE play, as Detroit gives up the 8th most fantasy points to that position.
4. De’Von Achane is set to play in Week 13 against an average Washington defense. Do not overthink this. Yes, the floor is next to nothing, but the ceiling is a top 5 RB for the week. In addition, get all of your Dolphins skill position players in your line-ups. I still consider Raheem Mostert a RB1 for the week, even with Achane playing.
5. I wonder if the fantasy community really comprehends how the type of league you play in matters. For PPR leagues, Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson still have some value, despite playing on the woeful Jets offense, as they should likely receive 3+ points just for the receptions. In standard scoring, however, all that matters are yards and touchdowns. Yards and touchdowns have been difficult to come by, especially touchdowns. This offense has scored 13 total touchdowns in 11 games, ranking as the worst scoring offense in the league. The offense has scored only 3 TDs in the last five games since their Bye week, and it is not like they have played top tier defenses during this stretch. This week, they play the Falcons defense, which is tied for 1st in fewest rushing TDs allowed (4), though its passing defense is nothing to shy away from. If you are an optimist, you could argue that since the Falcons are vulnerable against the pass and not very effective rushing the passer (5th fewest sacks in the league), then maybe the Jets offense has a chance. If you are the pessimist, you could argue that the Jets offense is so much of a dumpster fire, that it really does not matter who they play. I “think” Wilson still has WR2 appeal for Week 13. As for Hall, the question really is whether or not he can break a run or reception off and take it to the endzone, because it is hard to envision sustainable drives (and yards) coming from this offense anytime soon. For me, Hall is borderline RB2-RB3 in standard scoring leagues. In PPR, he is more a mid-range RB2.
6. Two QBs I am interested in seeing in Week 13 are Will Levis and Jake Browning. Levis has not been anything special since his 4 TD performance in Week 8. However, he has been missing Treylon Burks during that stretch. Burks looks to return for Week 13, so I am intrigued to see if that may make a difference and make Levis more fantasy relevant down the stretch—his remaining schedule is nothing to be fearful of. Browning, meanwhile, gets Tee Higgins back for Week 13 against Jacksonville, which has a bottom 10 defense against the pass. Browning has looked competent at times, and his Week 14 and 15 defensive opponents are nothing to shy away from. (However, his Week 16-18 schedule is brutal).
7. I wonder how the Texans wide receiver target distribution will play out if Noah Brown plays. He looks like he may actually suit up. Tank Dell, though Questionable, looks like a go. Nico Collins and Robert Woods are healthy. Thus, this will be the first game since Week 1 where all four are set to play. Denver’s secondary has been pretty stout, so this should be interesting. Tank Dell and Nico Collins are line-up locks for me. Noah Brown could be a sneaky flex play if he suits up, and may be available as many fantasy managers dropped him after he missed the last two games. Remember, the two games prior to his injury, he amassed 13 receptions for 325 yards and 1 TD.
8. I really do wonder if the key to unlocking Calvin Ridley’s potential is the presence of Zay Jones. Ridley has had no fewer than 89 yards receiving in games Jones played a significant amount of snaps. Jones is set to play in Week 13.
9. We can debate who is going to be the better fantasy play: David Montgomery or Jahmyr Gibbs. I think Montgomery has the higher floor in standard leagues while Gibbs has the higher floor in PPR leagues. But really, does it matter? You are playing them, regardless.
10. I wonder if sometimes we realize that playing fantasy football is a bit of a leap of faith. For example, do we think that Kansas City’s offense turned a corner in Week 12? Do we think that Rashee Rice had a breakout against the Raiders, and we will see him build upon that breakout against the Packers in Week 13? I want to. I want to. And, in a week that has 6 teams on a Bye, some of us may have to take that leap of faith and put him in our line-ups.
11. And finally…, as winter has arrived, I wonder how trees feel about the weather. They are probably sad during the cold season, but I am sure they will feel re-leaved when it is over.