By Winsto (11/22/2023)
1..In the Detroit-Green Bay game, I wonder how many fantasy managers are still nervous starting Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs has out-snapped David Montgomery for two consecutive weeks (Week 10 = 38 v. 25 and Week 11 = 36 v. 25). In addition, Gibbs has out-touched Montgomery in the Red Zone during this stretch (9 v. 7). Total touches since Montgomery’s return are in Gibbs’s favor as well: 31 v. 26. Based on the last two games, there is no reason for us to be nervous; however, I have a sneaking suspicion that there are those out there who still have an uneasiness about Gibbs. I get it. I do. It does seem like Gibbs’s usage in the early part of the season is a distant memory. Enjoy the ride. Montgomery, meanwhile, has been solid as well. Both are top 15 RB plays this week for me and probably for most weeks moving forward.
2. On the Green Bay side, I have Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Romeo Daubs ranked pretty close together, with Reed being highest. But I am more interested in what to expect from A.J. Dillon. Aaron Jones will be out, so the opportunity is there for Dillons. Unfortunately, there have been opportunities earlier in the season for him, and he was unable to deliver. This is not a smash spot for Dillon, so be mindful is you need to start him. He is a RB4 for me this week.
3. Additionally, news broke today that Luke Musgrave will be out for a while; thus, rookie Tucker Kraft is a tight end play for the tight end desperate. He was already playing the 2nd most snaps behind Musgrave. Now, he will be guy. Detroit is vulnerable to tight end fantasy points. Kraft is a tight end Hail Mary for Week 12.
4. Helpful hint: Play your Dallas players. The Cowboys have the highest implied total, so play them all. (Incidentally, anyone else notice that Brandin Cooks has led the team in receiving yards two games in a row.) As for Washington, this does not look like a ceiling game for any of the players, BUT we do have to consider that Dallas is a 13.5 favorite. There will be passing opportunities here for Sam Howell, Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Logan Thomas. Additionally, if Antonio Gibson plays, he will see looks as well. If not, Brian Robinson Jr. would see those passing looks. I would not, however, expect many rushing attempts for Robinson here.
5. Zach Charbonnet is a RB2 for me this week, even against San Francisco’s defense. The 3-down skill set will keep him in the game, regardless of game flow.
6. In the Dolphins-Jets game, I wonder if Tim Boyle can come to the rescue? Boyle has 3 career NFL starts, back when he was with Detroit in 2021. In those 3 games, he threw 3 TDs and 6 INTs. Look, he is probably not going to light this offense up, but oh sweet mother of mercy, how could this offense be any worse! An interesting point to note regarding Boyle is that in those 3 starts in 2021, he did not take a single sack. Zach Wilson has been sacked 38 times in 2023. Maybe Boyle at least keeps the offense in reasonable yardage situations. Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson should not be downgraded. If anything, maybe this gives fantasy managers a slim amount of actual hope, something they have not had in a while.
7. On the other side of the field, if De’Von Achane plays, you play him as you normally would. That is the risk with him. He can score on any play. Apparently, he can also get injured on any play. The Jets can be run on (4.2 ypc allowed), so we should not lower our expectations too much for Achane, nor for Raheem Mostert.
8. I wonder if I will continue this article, in say a “Part II,” over the weekend? I suppose we will have to wait and see!!!