By Winsto (11/25/2023)
1..I wonder what the takeaways from the early games in Week 12 are?
For the Green Bay-Detroit game, I was nervous about Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs out-snapped David Montgomery (60 to 23), but they both had 15 touches each, with Montgomery getting a TD. Total yardage-wise, it was close (Gibbs-73 to Montgomery-71). The takeaway here is when Detroit struggles offensively, one or both backs may struggle reaching top 15 RB points. That is the reality of playing running backs in a time-share. Meanwhile, Jarred Goff had a rough game, though he finished okay for fantasy points. It is quite clear the passing game will continue to center on Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta. Any other pass catcher on the team is a dart throw, though I think Jameson Williams would be the target to aim the dart.
On the Green Bay side, “maybe” we are starting to see some development with Jordan Love. If that continues, then Christian Watson and then Jayden Reed make for solid plays. I just need to see more before I am convinced. And as for A. J. Dillon, when given the opportunity with Aaron Jones out of the line-up, he again fell short from a fantasy perspective.
In the Washington-Dallas game, it seems pretty simple: play your Cowboys until further notice. The offense is scoring serious points. Incidentally, Brandin Cooks has led the team in receiving yards 3 weeks in a row. Make no mistake, CeeDee Lamb is the guy, but Cooks is working his way into fantasy WR2-3 status.
For Washington, this was just a tough match-up. Additionally, there are no pass catchers on this team that you can trust week in and week out: this offense has only had 2 games this season with a 100-yard receiver (Jahan Dotson against Philadelphia and Curtis Samuel against Dallas on Thanksgiving). Yep, Terry McLaurin (sadly) has not had a 100 yard game this season.
For San Francisco-Seattle, Christian McCaffrey (obviously) is about as good a fantasy play as you can get this season. As Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle, any one, two, or all three can go off any given week. You just have to recognize that any one of them could also have a pretty quiet game as well, as Kittle showed in Week 12. Still, the upside for them is too much to sit them on your bench.
Regarding Seattle, the same situation I mentioned with Washington somewhat applies to Seattle’s pass catchers—the offense has only produced one 100 yard receiving game this season (D. K. Metcalf in Week 3). Metcalf is the best bet of the group, but the upside is a WR2. Meanwhile, with Zach Charbonnet, there was good and bad. The good was he got 18 touches in Kenneth Walker III’s absence. The bad was he was only able to produce 58 scoreless yards.
And then there was the Dolphins-Jets. Let’s start with the positives: Raheem Mostert, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle fared quite well against the Jets tough defense. As for the negative, Tua Tagovailoa struggled some, but he is still going to be a good play against most defenses. And finally, let’s look at the brutality: the Jets offense. Was Tim Boyle any better than Zach Wilson? No. Was he any worse? Probably not. Garrett Wilson had an okay game, thanks in large part to the TD reception toward the end. Sadly, we cannot say the same for Breece Hall: 49 scoreless yards. This situation remains truly tragic. The quarterback play has been bad. The offensive line play has probably been worse, if that is possible. But, the most sickening part of this whole ordeal is the the play calling and design of OC Nathaniel Hackett. I have seen enough of an Aaron Rodgers-less offense under Hackett to realize it does not work. What makes this even more comically absurd is that the Jets won’t get rid of Hackett because of his ties to the injured Aaron Rodgers, as they are (comically) optimistically hoping for his return later this season. Thus, what we are left with is a wide receiver and running back who are both super talented but will both be borderline top 20 plays at their positions in fantasy, and that might be optimistic.
And with that, let us look ahead at the remaining games for Week 12.
2. I wonder if we are going to see any improvement from Kansas City’s offense. I was wrong thinking the Week 10 Bye was going to help solve some of the problems. It did not. I was wrong thinking that Rashee Rice was going to see 70% or more of the snaps coming out of the Bye. He did not. Instead, we saw Patrick Mahomes have a 4.1 yards per attempt—yes, he was not helped by the tragic amount of drops by his pass catchers. Meanwhile, Justin Watson had a 26% target share (more than Travis Kelce’s 21%)? None of this was what I expected. I “think” I get why the Chiefs thought Watson may be the best option to be the alpha wide receiver, as the data suggests he creates the most separation of all the wide outs on the team. The results, however, were not ideal. I think more attempts will be made to get this offense right, and I still think Rice will be the most valuable of the wide receivers going forward. However, we have to reconsider what that will actually mean for fantasy football: his ceiling may only be a WR3. As for Mahomes, I will continue to play him, regardless. He is too talented to sit. Maybe, the person that benefits the most from all of this will be Isiah Pacheco, especially this week with Jerick McKinnon being declared Out. Maybe, just maybe, Coach Andy Reid will simply realize the best course of action, given the make-up of this offense and the exceptional play of the team’s defense, is to run the ball more.
3. I wonder if we are seeing the rise of a WR1 with Tank Dell. In the last three games, he has a 30% target share, with 10 or more targets in each of those games, and has accumulated 319 receiving yards and 4 TDs. The caveat is that this has all happened while at least one of his teammates (Nico Collins, Noah Brown, and Robert Woods) has missed time. Of course, the good news for Tank Dell fantasy owners is that Noah Brown will be missing Week 12. There is a legitimate question here: between Tank Dell and Nico Collins, which will be more valuable going forward? I still “think” Collins may be more valuable, but I could be easily swayed.
4. If you need a Hail Mary play for Week 12, Greg Dortch is someone to consider. With Michael Wilson set to miss and Marquise Brown looking very questionable, Dortch, who had 6 receptions for 76 yards on 8 targets, in Week 11, is my Hail Mary play for Week 12. In addition, I would expect Trey McBride to benefit from Wilson and Brown’s absence as well.
5. I wonder how the injury to Mark Andrews will affect the Baltimore offense. I do have a slight concern regarding Lamar Jackson’s passing, as he will be missing his security blanket. Still, the matchup against the Chargers defense almost eliminates that concern immediately. What I am more interested in is the impact the injury on the remaining pass catchers. Isaiah Likely has shown some promise in the past, filling in for Mark Andrews. I also think Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and even Nelson Agholor should all see bumps in their value. But, I “think” the biggest beneficiary will be Odell Beckham Jr. I think he is a solid play in Week 12, but we do have to factor in the injury risk, as he has had durability issues.
6. Kyren Williams has been activated off the IR. Play him! He may be eased in as far as workload goes, but he has a smash match-up against Arizona this week. (The last time the Rams played Arizona, he ran for 158 yards and a TD). As for the pass catchers for the Rams, Cooper Kupp looks like a go, though he may not be 100%. In the two games Williams and Kupp both played together this season, Kupp topped 100 yards in both. In those same two games, Puka Nacua’s results were more mixed, going 71 receiving yards and a TD in Week 5 and 26 scoreless receiving yards in Week 6. Kupp looks like a high upside WR2 while Nacua looks like a lower end WR2.
7. And finally… I wonder why Soldier Field in Chicago gets so windy? I guess it is because of all the fans.