By Winsto (11/26/2022)
- I wonder if Tampa Bay will be able to run the ball against Cleveland tomorrow? Tampa Bay is last in the league in yards per carry (3.1), last in total rushing (707 yards), and tied for last in rushing TDs (4). Meanwhile, Cleveland’s rush defense is 5th worst in ypc allowed (4.8) and 3rd worst in rushing TDs allowed (16). In Week 10 against Seattle, Tampa Bay had some rushing success. Can that continue? As it looks like Leonard Fournette (RB-Tampa Bay) is out, this is a golden opportunity for Rachaad White (RB-Tampa Bay). Just keep in mind that he enters this game with an uninspiring 3.7 yards per carry average.
- Speaking of rookies, I wonder if Isiah Pacheco (RB-Kansas City) can continue to build upon his successes from the previous weeks. He is averaging 5.1 ypc on the season and will not have to worry about losing carries to Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB-Kansas City) for the time being. However, Kansas City is squaring off against a Los Angeles Rams defense ranked 4th best is ypc allowed (3.7) and rushing yards on season allowed (953). But, between LAR’s loss of A’Shawn Robinson (out for the year) on the defensive line and the missing weapons on their offense, Kansas City should still be able to find some success rushing.
- Continuing with the rookie theme, I wonder if Treylon Burks (WR-Tennessee) can also continue his success. Burks is coming off his first 100 yard receiving game in which he saw a 30% target share. He will be going up against a solid pass defense in Cincinatti, but he achieved the prior week’s numbers against a solid Green Bay pass defense. My guess is he will come close to replicating his previous week’s performance.
- All Christian Watson (WR-Green Bay) does is get into the end zone, as he has 5 TDs in his past 2 games, along with 8 receptions for 155 yards. Based on the last two games, it seems that Allen Lazard (WR) is more the target monster than Watson when both are playing, BUT Watson gets the looks in the red zone. I wonder if there is any way I would not be starting Watson until further notice. Even against a Philadelphia defense that is allowing a league best 5.1 yards per attempt, he is coming off a tear of scoring. I would be very hesitant to not continue to ride those points out. Yes, in general, you should not chase touchdowns in fantasy football, but 5 TDs over the past two games is difficult to not chase.
- And as we continue discussing rookies, I wonder if the change at QB in Houston will improve the prospects of Dameon Pierce (RB-Houston). He, and Houston’s offense, are coming off a brutal offensive display against Washington last week (Pierce’s 17 total scoreless yards and Houston’s less than 200 total yards offense). Miami’s rushing defense is in the bottom 3rd, so there is an opportunity here for Pierce. The problem Pierce faces is how competitive can Houston keep the game, as they are a 14 point underdog. I think Pierce can have a decent day overall here.
- Sticking with the same Houston-Miami match-up, I wonder if we might see a blow up game from Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB-Miami). It is looking like Raheem Mostert (RB) may be held out of the game, and as Miami is a 14 point favorite, I could see them running the ball quite a bit. In addition, Houston has given up the most rushing yards of any team in the league (1,789). This should be a recipe for fantasy success for Wilson (though I wonder if I am just trying to will it into happening, as I am starting Wilson in one of my leagues).
- I wonder how the change at QB for the New York Jets will impact the skill position players. Their opponent, Chicago, is 6th worst against the rush in terms of yards per carry (4.7) and tied for 4th worst against the pass in terms of yards per attempt (7.3). Combine that with the potential of Justin Fields (QB-Chicago) either playing hurt or not playing, and this may set up nicely for Michael Carter (RB-NYJ), James Robinson (RB-NYJ), and Garrett Wilson (WR-NYJ).
- If I said I wonder about the Denver-Carolina game, I would be lying. I am sorry Denver and Carolina fans. I am sorry. I have no idea what happened to Russell Wilson (QB-Denver), as I have admitted in previous columns. As for Carolina, how did we get to the point where we viewed Sam Darnold (QB-Carolina) as a possible solution to the quarterback problem? Did we forget 2021? Even with all of that being said, Latavius Murray (RB-Denver), Courtland Sutton (WR-Denver), and Greg Dulcich (TE-Denver) are not awful starts. If Carolina was playing a weaker defense–Denver is 2nd against pass in terms of yards per attempt (5.2) and tied for 3rd against the rush in terms of rushing TDs allowed on the season (5), I admit that I would be intrigued by D. J. Moore (WR-Carolina). The one thing Sam Darnold may be able to do is make Moore more fantasy relevant. My hopes for that happening this week, however, are dim. Keep in mind that this game has the lowest over/under (36) of any game in Week 12.
- I wonder if we may be ignoring the potential fantasy gold that could be coming from the Las Vegas-Seattle game. Both defenses are middle of the pack or worse against the run and against the pass. Though Las Vegas’s season has not gone as hoped, they still have a (slim) chance at sneaking into the playoffs. Meanwhile, Seattle’s season, one would think, has gone much better than it has hoped. The over/under (47.5) is the second most for Sunday’s match-ups. I think several of the following players may be in store for bigger fantasy games than expected: Derick Carr (QB-LV), Josh Jacobs–assuming he plays (RB-LV), Davante Adams (WR-LV), Foster Moreau (TE-LV), Geno Smith (QB-Sea), Ken Walker (RB-Sea), D. K. Metcalf (WR-Sea), Tyler Lockett (WR-Sea), and Noah Fant (TE-Sea).
- And finally… In baseball, I wonder why we sing “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” when we are already, in fact, at the ballgame.