By Winsto (11/18/2023)
1..I will be paying close attention to the MNF match-up between Philadelphia and Kansas City. I wonder what adjustments the Kansas City offense made coming out of its Bye week. Make no mistake, Coach Andy Reid is a tinkerer, especially when he sees something not working as well as it should. That something is the offense. Thus, I foresee some adjustments. I “think” we will see a 70% and above snap rate for Rashee Rice moving forward. If you are in a tough spot, Rice is a strong play for Week 11 despite the lack of snaps up to this point. I also think the team has been saving Jerick McKinnon for the stretch run of the season. That may or may not happen this Monday, but keep in mind that of McKinnon’s 10 total TDs in 2022, 9 came in the last 6 games. This is a good match-up for Patrick Mahomes. What you are hoping for is KC’s offense to take advantage of it. If KC’s offense continues to look above average but not like it has looked in recent years, then we will have to adjust our expectations regarding all players involved, except for Travis Kelce, as he will be just fine regardless. But again, Reid is a tinkerer. I think this offense will come out strong. And in deeper leagues, keep an eye on Kadarius Toney. He is still the most athletically talented wide receiver the Chiefs have on their roster. The same reasoning I mentioned earlier regarding McKinnon also applies to Toney.
2. As for Philadelphia’s offense, this is not a good match-up. Regardless, A.J. Brown, Jalen Hurts, D’Andre Swift, and even DeVonta Smith should all be in your line-ups. Given that Dallas Goedert will be missing some time, I would expect more opportunities for the remaining players—there are more than 4 receptions per game vacated by Goedert. Regarding Hurts, he is mostly duplicating his stats from last year, with two exceptions: his INT rate has increased (1.3 to 2.6) and his rushing yards per game has declined (from 50.7 to 35.1). Otherwise, he is almost the same player, statistically speaking.
3. This is your public service announcement. De’Von Achane is playing in Week 11. Do not overthink this. You start him. And, you start Raheem Mostert as well.
4. I wonder how many fantasy points will be coming from the Arizona-Houston game. This match-up screams fantasy points a plenty! On the Arizona side, Kyler Murray looked solid in his return from the injury. More importantly, he looks like he can improve the fantasy prospects for his offensive teammates. Trey McBride has the look of a Top 4 TE going forward, and I do not think that is an exaggeration. James Conner should finish strong as a RB2 for the rest of the season. The jury is still out on Marquise Brown, but this match-up may help. Incidentally, Rondale Moore is a deep league sneaky play here. As for the Texans, C. J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, and Devin Singletary are ALL strong plays here. Yet, what about Robert Woods? Noah Brown looks unlikely to play, which should provide Woods some opportunities. Robert Woods is my Week 11 Hail Mary start.
5. On a somewhat related note, Noah Brown may be missing Week 11, but he sure looks like someone I would want on my fantasy team. Of all the wide receivers on the Texans, it is actually Brown who has the highest PFF grade. In receiving yards per game—he missed 4 weeks due to injury, he is outproducing receivers like Stefon Diggs, Brandon Aiyuk, and Ja’Marr Chase. Look, I get it. He is 27 years old and has not really broken out before. This could be a fluke. That is true, but it could also be the start of a breakout. His two-game stretch with 13 receptions, 325 yards, and 1 TD is simply too impressive to chalk up as just a fluke. Some receivers take longer to breakout. For example, Chris Carter did not have his 1st 1,000 yard receiving season until he was 28 years old. He followed that season up with 7 more 1,000 yard receiving seasons and now has a bust in Canton. I cannot foresee where this will lead for Brown, but I do know that I want him on my fantasy team in the meantime.
6. I wonder what type of split we will see from the Chicago backfield, now that Khalil Herbert is returning. My guess is that D’Onta Foreman will lead the committee as the coaches may want to take it easy with Herbert coming off an injury. Both are RB4s for me this week.
7. Speaking of running back splits, Jaylen Warren looks to have overtaken Najee Harris in Pittsburgh’s backfield. That said, they will both get carries. They are going against a tough Cleveland defense, however, so they are both RB3 plays for me. Cleveland is top 10 in yards per carry allowed (3.8) and 12th in rushing touchdowns allowed (9).
8. This is another public service announcement. Other than Saquon Barkley, Breece Hall, and Garrett Wilson, do not start any offensive fantasy players from the Giants and Jets in Week 11. Maybe the Giants offense will look somewhat competent when Tyrod Taylor returns from injury, but otherwise, these two offenses are not good. Not good!
9. I wonder what we will get out of the Minnesota offense against Denver. Joshua Dobbs has had two strong games since joining the Vikings, and I think that will continue even though Denver’s defense has been playing much better of late. I have Dobbs as my QB14 for Week 11. Jordan Addison has been serviceable with Dobbs, and he should be considered a WR3/4. T. J. Hockenson, meanwhile, should has seen 27 targets in the two games Dobbs has played. Yes, sign me up for that—he is my TE2 for Week 11. What really intrigues me is Ty Chandler. He is set up for the bulk of the carries, as Alexander Mattison is unlikely to play (though he still has a chance). It is a Sunday night game, so decisions may need to be made before we find out definitively. What I would like to see is, if Mattison sits, can Chandler have a game to force his way into the majority of the carries moving forward. It is no secret that the Vikings have been looking for alternatives to Mattison—the trade for Cam Akers was made. Of course, we also have to consider the notion that the Vikings staff are not too high on Chandler because the trade for Cam Akers was made. Chandler was already forcing his way on the field prior to Mattison leaving the game in Week 10, so this is a situation to watch.
10. And finally… I wonder why NFL coaches do not let turkeys play a snap in a game. I guess they know that there would be a fowl on the play.
Happy Thanksgiving!