By Winsto (09/09/2023)
1. I wonder if we should just get this out of the way now. Let’s briefly revisit the Lions-Chiefs TNF game. If you have Kadarius Toney, DO NOT DROP HIM! Yes, he had arguably one of the worst games I have ever seen from the wide receiver position. Granted. BUT, he also had 5 targets (and 1 rush) on 16 snaps. He gets open, more so than any other receiver on that team, at least in that game. Better days will come. As for Skyy Moore? From a fantasy perspective, I think to say the “Skyy is falling” would not by hyperbole. I am willing to give it another week, but if I don’t see fantasy production afterwards, he is droppable, as I think he will start losing snaps, particularly to Rashee Rice.
2. Speaking of that same game, I wonder if people, myself included, who drafted Jahmyr Gibbs in 2023 are panicking because they already saw this same show with in 2022, and we know how that ended. We also wonder if we would actually fall for purchasing ocean front property in Arizona? Why does Dan Campbell hate speed? I know afterwards Campbell said he just wanted to get Gibbs’s feet wet, and his playing time will only increase from here. I just think I have seen this movie before in 2022. I want to believe Campbell will increase Gibb’s snaps, but I may need to see it before I truly believe.
3. I wonder what Baltimore’s “new look” offense will actually look like? Yes, passing game “should” improve with the hiring of new OC Todd Monken, the additions of Odell Beckham, Jr. and Zay Flowers, and a healthy Rashod Bateman. In fact, Beckham’s last 1,000 yard season was with Monken as OC in Cleveland (2019). That team, quarterbacked by Baker Mayfield, actually had TWO 1,000 yard receivers: Beckham and Jarvis Landry. Thus, there is reason for optimism, especially for Lamar Jackson fantasy owners. Now, he may run slightly less, but the passing game should make up for it, and then some. The follow-up question, however, is which pass catchers are going to actually benefit. The receiving unit looks much more talented than in years past, and that will affect Mark Andrews. His target share will be facing his most talented target competition this year. In the past three seasons, his target share percentages have been 22.7, 26, and 24.1. (Incidentally, those are impressive and comparable to Travis Kelce’s 23.5, 21.1, and 24.8). I think we will see a slight hit on those percentages in 2023, but if the offense passes more and opens things up, then Andrews may find himself with slightly lower volume but much higher efficiency. In other words, the off-season changes do not cause me concern for Andrews. What really intrigues me is the playing time among OBJ, Bateman, and Flowers. Reports out of camp were that OBJ and Bateman were operating as the top two wide-outs, with Flowers coming in for 3 receiver packages. Still, I am curious. OBJ turns 31 this season. Bateman is returning from a season-ending foot surgery he underwent last year. I would not be shocked if Flowers gets decent playing time here. UPDATE: Andrews is OUT for Week 1. Flowers may have more upside here. In addition, for the TE desperate, Isaiah Likely proved useful. There are more options for Baltimore’s offense going in to 2023, but I think Likely could still be a sneaky start.
4. George Pickens and Jahan Dotson, you have my attention. I wonder if they can live up to their preseason fantasy hype. I, for one, have been bullish on Dotson, but I am not overlooking Pickens. If the Pittsburgh passing offense can take a step forward, then Pickens could take a leap in his second year. Though his teammate, Diontae Johnson, is a target monster—sidenote here is that D. Johnson could also have a nice year, Pickens has a 5-inch height advantage, giving him the edge in TD potential.
5. I wonder what is going to unfold in that Philadelphia backfield. Actually, no I don’t. I want no part of it. Rashaad Penny, D’Andre Swift, Kenny Gainwell, and Boston Scott are all going to play. The Eagles are being completely honest here, as they are all listed under the first team. I have been burned by Penny and Swift in the past. The only certainty here is headache and heartache, aside from Boston Scott having two nice games this season—both against the Giants, of course. (If you are unfamiliar with this, Boston Scott has scored at least 1 TD in EVERY GAME he has faced the Giants.)
6. I think I am rooting for the “little” guys: De’Von Achane (5’9” 188 lbs), Deuce Vaughn (5’5” 179 lbs), and Jaleel McLaughlin (5’7” 187 lbs). I wonder how much playing time each will get. Achane is more widely owned, and rightfully so, as there are less obstacles to playing time for him. And of course, it helps when you are very fast. Just understand, at least early on, that he will probably be limited in touches, even with Jeff Wilson, Jr. on IR. As for Vaughn and McLaughlin, they have some speed and Denver HC Sean Payton expressed his willingness to give McLaughlin some reps as he plans on easing Javonte Williams back from his 2022 ACL injury. I think in deeper PPR leagues, Vaughn and McLaughlin are going to be relevant sooner rather than later. For standard size leagues, there are too many obstacles to touches at this point, but I would be keeping my eye on them.
7. And finally…I wonder if our lives are not actually measured in years, but in sneezes? What if we each enter into this world with only so many sneezes before we move on from this earth? I think about this every time I sneeze.