Weekend Wonderings: Week 09 (2024)

1. With the news that Tyjae Spears (RB-Ten) has been ruled OUT and Tony Pollard (RB-Ten) looks to be very Questionable, I wonder how many fantasy managers will roll the dice with Julius Chestnut (RB-Ten). The 2022 undrafted RB would be the only one left standing. He did have a solid outing in Week 09 against Detroit, rushing 7 times for 32 yards. He has some power and okay speed, and Tennessee is playing a New England defense that middle of the pack against the run, though it has given up the 5th most rushing TDs (10–tied with five other teams).  Chestnut will probably not catch many passes—he has 1 reception in 2024 and 4 for his career, but given the amount of volume he could see, I would consider him a higher end RB3 if both Spears and Pollard are OUT.  Tennessee is a middle-of-the-pack rushing team, so there is value here. 

 

2. Speaking of RBs who may take advantage of opportunities, Zach Moss (RB-Cin) has been declared Doubtful to play against Las Vegas.  Could this be Chase Brown’s (RB-Cin) break-out game?  The Raiders run defense is almost identical to New England’s–middle of the pack but has given up 5th most rushing TDs (10—tied with five other teams).  However, Brown has been held in check lately, averaging less than 3 YPC the last two games, and the likely absence of Orlando Brown Jr. (Left Tackle-Cin) will not help, either. Cincinatti has not been overly impressive on the ground, ranking 26th in YPC and 28th in rushing yards per game.  I would consider Brown low-end RB2 with some upside.

 

3. I have a few takeaways from TNF’s Texans-Jets matchup.

 

a. I would not be surprised if Joe Mixon (RB-Hou) finishes as RB1 on a per game average for the 2024 fantasy season.  He is having a career year in terms of rushing yards per game (101.5), and he has 7 TDs in 6 games.  And honestly, just from the eye test, he looks rejuvenated in the Texans offense.

b. I do not think this Jets offense, particularly the offensive line, is strong enough to allow Breece Hall (RB) to finish as a top 8 RB for the 2024 fantasy season.  HOWEVER, if you look at the remaining rush defenses the Jets have on the schedule, Hall could still have a solid 2nd half of the season and still finish as a top 12 RB.

c. Tank Dell (WR-Hou) will be a top 15 WR for as long as Nico Collins (WR-Hou) is out, and he should be a top 20 WR even after Collins’s return.

d.  Garrett Wilson (WR-NYJ) is good.  I ranked Wilson slightly higher than Davante Adams (WR-NYJ) for Week 09, and I think I will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

 

4. I know I said this last week, but I am doubling down:  I think an anytime TD bet for DeAndre Hopkins (WR-KC) in Week 09 would be a GREAT idea. He played 32% of the snaps in a short week after being traded in Week 09.  He is going to push to closer to 70% in Week 10.  He gets open.  He is going to get looks.  I have him as a mid WR2, and I think I have him ranked too low.  

 

5. If you are trying to figure out which Green Bay receivers to play, join the club.  Jayden Reed (WR) started strong, but his fantasy production, and playing time, has faded.  Christian Watson (WR) was a popular pick to break out this season, but his play and playing time has been up and down.  Romeo Doubs (WR), who most fantasy pundits had ranked as the lowest of the three, has been the steadiest since returning from his missed game.  Reed and Watson are simply not seeing enough targets to enter the circle of trust here.  That said, it does look like Jordan Love (QB) will be playing this week, and Green Bay will probably need to air it out against Detroit.  All three are viable options, but due to the uncertainty, I have none of them ranked higher than a WR3.  Of all the pass catchers here, Tucker Kroft (TE) is the most appealing.

 

6. Derek Carr (QB-NO) looks like he will be returning this week from injury.  He, along with Alvin Kamara (RB-NO) and Chris Olave (WR-NO), who is also returning, play Carolina’s defense.  I probably have them all ranked too low, as all 3 could finish top 10 in their respective positions for the week.  In case you are uncertain what I am saying, Carolina’s defense is not good.  It is not good.

 

7.  We should have low expectations for Rachaad White (RB-TB) and Bucky Irving (RB-TB) Monday night against Kansas City.  The Chiefs defense has given up the 2nd fewest yards per game rushing (82.3) this season—and that IS counting the 122 rushing yards by Lamar Jackson (QB-Bal) in Week 01.  Now, that said, Baker Mayfield (QB-TB) will have to throw it to someone besides Cade Otton (TE-TB), I think, so both White and Irving should at least have some success, particularly in PPR leagues.  Still, I would consider other options if I had them.  My colleague and I both have them ranked outside the top 30 RBs for Week 09.  

IF Irving does not play (toe), then I would move White up to a bottom end RB3, but Sean Tucker (RB) may also see more action than anticipated in that scenario. 

 

8.  For IDP fantasy managers, this looks like a good week to roll with Maxx Crosby (DE-LV) and/or Trey Hendrickson (DE-Cin).  Also, if Terrel Bernard (LB-Buf) can stay healthy, he and Dorian Williams (LB-Buf) should both find fantasy success against a Miami offense that yields fantasy points to the LB position.

 

9. I wonder if sometimes we need reminding that whenever we have complicated fantasy decisions to make, we should go with the more talented player over the player with the better match-up.  

 

10. And finally…, I saw a Scarecrow with an award medal.  I wonder what he won it for.  I guess he must have been for being Outstanding in his Field.