By Winsto (11/03/2023)
1..I wonder if there is a more valuable handcuff in fantasy football than Tyjae Spears? Spears would be a top 10 RB if something happened to Henry from that point forward. Additionally, for those of you in keeper or dynasty leagues who are probably not going to contend for a fantasy championship this season, I wonder if there is not a better player to trade for than Tyjae Spears. His cost should not be too high. Derrick Henry is in the final year of his contract. If he signs for another team in the offseason, Spears has the look of a top 10 RB for 2024. In this, his rookie season, his yards after contact per attempt (YAC/ATT) is better than Derrick Henry’s: 2.6 v 1.8. In fact, Spears’s YAC/ATT of 2.6 would top any of Henry’s over the latter’s last 3 seasons. Spears is averaging 5.5 YPC. He also possessed a 3 down skill-set. I would not be surprised if Tennessee does a bit of a reset this offseason, with Will Levis taking control of the offense. Yes, we have a small sample size with Levis, but he simply looks the part. There is an ease to his throwing the ball that not all quarterbacks possess. He can sling it. This Titans offense in 2024 might have some potency, and Spears, if Henry leaves, should be the centerpiece. If it does not look like you will contend this season, then grab Spears off the waiver wire if he is somehow available. If he is on another team, then offer a flex type player who has value this season for him so that you can set yourself up well for 2024.
2. I wonder how confident we can be starting Chuba Hubbard this week. Coach Frank Reich has named him the starter for Week 09 against an Indianapolis defense that is giving up the 4th most fantasy points to RBs. He saw 67% of the snaps in Week 08, even with the return of Miles Sanders. The touch count from Week 08 is as follows: Hubbard-17, Sanders-2, and Raheem Blackshear-5. Hubbard, in addition, saw 5 Red Zone opportunities while Sanders saw 0. (Incidentally, Raheem Blackshear saw 1). Everything here screams Hubbard is a must play. The problem, however, is that in Week 08, despite going against a Houston defense that gives up the 11th most fantasy points to RBs, Hubbard had 28 yards on 15 carries and 26 yards on 2 receptions. That, my fine reader, is not ideal. Hubbard is a solid play, especially with the Bye week, but I do have some concerns. I am not confident, but rather cautiously optimistic. He is my RB24.
3. I wonder if there are some fantasy football managers nervous about Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense after the disaster that was Week 08. That was the worst fantasy day of Mahomes’s career. The chatter has been the receiving room lacks talent. If I am not mistaken, this is essentially the same receiving room, subtracting JuJu Smith-Schuster and adding Rashee Rice, that Kansas City had last season, a season Mahomes led the league in passing yards, passing TDs, and QBR. Rice’s ceiling is higher than Smith-Schuster’s ceiling last season. Look, I cannot predict the future, but I can look at the past. The past of Mahomes suggests a rebound game, a very big rebound game. I have Mahomes as my number 1 ranked QB for Week 09.
4. In a similar vein, the Miami-Kansas City game in Frankfurt, Germany is tied for the highest over/under at 50.5. Assuming the people in Vegas know what they are doing, and they usually do, you want to try and get in on this potential shootout. You are obviously playing the line-up locks (Tua Tagovailoa, Raheem Mostert, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco), but there are two more players who could make for interesting considerations. Jeff Wilson Jr. is slowly seeing more playing time the two games (14% and 25%) he has played since his return. He is a favorite of Coach Mike McDaniel. Given the Bye weeks, he could be a sneaky flex play. A safer play, I think, is Rashee Rice. I have said before that once he gets to a 70% snap rate, he would be a top 25 WR the rest of the season. In Week 08, he played 61%, which was his highest so far of the season and (for the first time) the highest of any of the Chiefs WRs in Week 08. His time is coming. The question is will it happen in Frankfurt in Week 09 or will it happen after Kansas City’s Week 10 Bye. Given the potential shoot-out, Rice is a WR3 with upside this week.
5. I wonder if we may actually see a solid performance out of the Giants, offensively. They may actually be getting both starting tackles back this week, Daniel Jones (for what it is worth) should return, and Las Vegas does not boast a top tier defense—bottom six in YPC allowed and rushing TDs allowed while middle of the pack in passing defense. Saquon Barkley has a salivating match-up here. Additionally, Daniel Jones, in theory, has to throw it to someone, right? Darren Waller is out. Darius Slayton is the floor play of the wide receivers and the one you would prioritize, but I am interested to see if Jalin Hyatt has a game here. Maybe, just maybe, the offensive line will be able to give Jones enough time to push the ball downfield, with Hyatt being the beneficiary. Yes, Hyatt saw a drop in playing time in Week 8, but that may be partly due to the loss of Tyrod Taylor and the Giants abandoning the pass with Tommy Devito. For the Bye week desperate, Hyatt is my Week 09 Hail Mary play.
6. My other Week 09 Hail Mary is Van Jefferson, incidentally. Drake London is Out. Taylor Heinicke pushes the ball downfield. Jefferson should see an uptick in targets.
7. Oh, the uncertainty with the pass catchers in Minnesota and Los Angeles (Rams). With Minnesota, how to you bench Jordan Addison, who has the most receiving TDs by a player not named Tyreek Hill, or T. J. Hockenson, who has the 2nd most receiving yards and tied for most targets for a TE? Even with Jaren Hall under center, surely they should find some success? Right? Right? Look, I am not really sure what is going to happen here. The opponent, Atlanta, is middle of the pack against wide receivers and tight ends, so it is not a defense to shy away from. Training camp reports suggested that Hall looked solid. Hall, in the preseason, made some throws but showed inconsistency. My best “guess” is that Hall will be okay, but the drop-off from Kirk Cousins will be real. Addison goes from a WR2 with upside to a WR3 (with upside?); I have Addison at WR29. Hockenson is still probably your starting TE, as I think he will be less impacted. Additionally, if Hall turns into a pumpkin, then there is always the chance Joshua Dobbs gets thrown into the fire.
As for the Rams, we can only hope that Matthew Stafford’s thumb proves healthy enough to play. Brett Rypien has seen spot start duty before, most recently two games with Denver last season. The results were okay. In the game both Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton played (versus the Jets), they both saw 9+ targets, a game that Denver kept close until the end. What that suggests is Rypien will target the wide outs. Look, we may not feel super comfortable starting Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua if Rypien is under center, but I “think” they should still have almost the same success as they would if Stafford takes the field. Kupp is still a low end WR1 and Nacua is still a mid-level WR2.
8. I am going to make a bold prediction: Tee Higgins finishes as a top 15 WR for Week 09. Joe Burrow is looking healthy, and Cincinatti’s offense is starting to look like what we expected it to look like.
9. I wonder if anyone else has noticed that through 8 games, Lamar Jackson has 9 TD passes, with only 3 of them going to WRs. And with a WR group that includes Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr., and Rashod Bateman, the leading receiver in TDs is, of course, Nelson Agholor with 2. Jackson’s passing TD% (4) is the lowest it has been since his rookie season. He has improved his YPA to 7.8, which equals his MVP season of 2019. It seems like his TD% is going to see some positive regression. Incidentally, the other 6 TDs have gone to, you guessed it, Mark Andrews. No TDs have been thrown to the running backs, which is something to note.
10. And finally… I wonder why we don’t see more beds go into the field of espionage. I mean, they are already undercover, right?