By Winsto (10/25/2024)
1. I wonder how the DeAndre Hopkins (WR-KC) is going to impact fantasy football. Based on current information, he will be playing against Las Vegas in Week 08, but how many snaps is very much a question. My guess is 40-50%, so he is not someone I would necessarily start this week unless you are in deeper leagues. That said, I think an anytime TD bet for Hopkins in Week 08 would be a good idea.
Now, from Week 09 onwards, I do see Hopkins as a borderline WR2 in fantasy football, and quite honestly, I may be too conservative. Yes, he is 32 years old and has the MCL issue in his knee that he will be playing through for the rest of the season. He is still the most talented player in the WR group in KC, and I am not sure it is even close. He gets open. He has excellent ball skills. He may not be the same player he was 4 years ago, and maybe he does not win deep like he used to. BUT, he still wins in the short to intermediary areas. And that is why I think he is going to see targets, many targets, down the stretch. (More in-depth coverage regarding Hopkins can be found here, but it is not free.)
Look, JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR-KC) has a hamstring injury and did not practice this week. I do not expect him to return in Week 09, and he may even miss Week 10. Hopkins is the guy. Hopkins still has talent. I believe he is going to be the #1 option in this passing game moving forward.
In addition, his incorporation into this offense will also help Patrick Mahomes (QB-KC), Travis Kelce (TE-KC), and Xavier Worthy (WR-KC). Mahomes may return to more fantasy relevance for the rest of the season. Though Hopkins will take targets away from Kelce and Worthy, he will also give them more space to be efficient with those targets. And, once Smith-Schuster returns, this passing game may look somewhat more like what we anticipated from KC going into the season.
(And yes, I know in the past I advocated for Smith-Schuster as someone to grab and use for the remainder of the season, but obviously the Hopkins trade changes this. Smith-Schuster could still have some value, but it will not be what it could have been without Hopkins.)
- Here are two things I “think” I learnedfrom TNF’s Vikings-Rams matchup:
a. Minnesota’s defense, at least pass defense, is not something to avoid. The last time I wrote this weekly piece, I was concerned about David Montgomery (RB-Det) and Jahmyr Gibbs (RB-Det) going against the staunch Viking defense. Yes, Montgomery did not have a great game, partly because he had to leave briefly due to a knee injury. But Gibbs, even against a stout rush defense, reminded us of how talented of player he really is, going for 160 total yards and 2 total TDs. The Viking defense against Detroit and now against the Rams does not have the look of an elite defense, particularly against the run, like it did the first several games of the season.
b. Jordan Addison (WR-Min) just does not see enough targets consistently to be anything more than a borderline top 35 WR from here on out, especially considering J. Hockenson (TE-Min) has now been activated off IR and will take targets.. Addison is just too boom or bust for my taste.
- Here is another thing I learned from TNF’s game: the Rams offense, with Puka Nacua (WR-LAR) and Cooper Kupp (WR-LAR), is a good offense that can move the ball against the best of them. Thus, Matthew Stafford (QB-LAR), who is rostered in only 39% of Yahoo leagues, should have more appeal moving forward (as long as Nacua and Kupp stay healthy and Kupp does not get traded). As for Kyren Williams (RB-LAR), he may not see quite the amount of touches as before, but he could see even MORE TD opportunities, which would be ridiculous, as he is currently already tied for 1st in total TDs (10) with Derrick Henry (RB-Bal). (Incidentally, this is just another reminder of how valuable Blake Corum (RB-LAR) would be if the opportunity presented itself.)
- I somewhat discussed this in my Week 08 Waiver writing, but I really do think the Cleveland Browns offense became quite relevant again with Jameis Winston (QB-Cle) now being under center. Look, Winston is not the most accurate passer and does throw more INTs than teams would like, but he also does push the ball down the field. He also will pepper players with targets. I really do like David Njoku (TE-Cle) moving forward, and Cedric Tillman (WR-Cle) is someone I would grab while I still could. As for Nick Chubb (RB-Cle), he saw 30 snaps (36%) in his first game back, and ran 11 times for 22 yards and 1 TD—he also had 1 catch for 10 yards. The snaps are going to go up from here on out–he should see about 40 snaps this week against Baltimore. And, the reality is Chubb has pretty much lived in the 35-40 snap a game area since 2019. From 2020 until his injury in 2022, 40 snaps was actually on the higher end of his playing time, and he still averaged about 88-89 yards per game. Yes, Baltimore is tough against the run. I get it, but they are also very susceptible to the pass, so Red Zone opportunities may be there for Chubb. Look, all I am saying is that if playing time questions should not be a reason for you to not play Nick Chubb.
- For those in IDP leagues, here are a few observations:
a. Has anyone noticed that Nakobe Dean (LB-Phi) has been outperforming the early IDP MVP, Zach Baun (LB-Phi), since the Week 05 Bye? It could just be a lucky stretch, but if it happens again this week, Dean is someone to consider moving forward. Remember, he was a 3rd round pick for a reason in 2022, and he was set to be the leader of the defense in 2023 until injuries derailed his season.
b. With Terrel Bernard (LB-Buf) declared OUT, Baylon Spector (LB-Buf) should once again wear the Green Dot and be a viable start. Dorian Williams (LB-Buf) should also benefit and see more tackle opportunities.
c. Azeez Al-Shaair (LB-Hou) looks iffy for Week 08. Henry To’oTo’o (LB-Hou) would wind up being a strong play if that were the case.
d. Josey Jewell (LB-Car) may return to action this week, which could take away some of the potential of Trevin Wallace (LB-Car), who has produced pretty good fantasy stats. Wallace, however, is a rookie, and his play has been uneven at times on the actual football field.
- Here is a BOLD Prediction: Deebo Samuel (WR-SF) and George Kittle (TE-SF) both top 80 combined yards and both find the endzone. With Brandon Aiyuk (WR-SF) done for the year and Jauan Jennings (WR-SF) ruled out for Week 08, Samuel and Kittle are going to see the ball. Ricky Pearsall (WR-SF) will see full time snaps, but I am not sure the coaches want to put too much on his plate just yet.
- I wonder if Dalvin Cook (RB-Dal) will be elevated from the practice squad this week. Dallas had its Bye Week in Week 07, and that is usually the time when teams take stock and make adjustments. In the entire NFL, Dallas is last in yards per carry (3.5) as a team. They are last in the league in rushing TDs (2). If Cook winds up being elevated, do not be surprised if he sees close to half of the rushing attempts. I am not sure how much Cook has left, but he may provide some improvement over the current situation.
- Speaking of teams coming off a Bye, I wonder what adjustments Chicago’s offense will make. Look, the offense looked pretty strong the two games prior to the Bye Week, as the unit topped 30 points in both contests. The offense also sits at 3rd in Red Zone TD% (70.6). They are 12th in scoring offense (24.7). Since the return of Keenan Allen (WR-Chi), the pecking order of intended recipients of Caleb Williams (QB-Chi) passes is still a bit undetermined. D.J. Moore (WR-Chi) is first with 13 targets, but there is not a huge gap in target share between him and Keenan Allen (WR-Chi), with 11 targets;Cole Kmet (TE-Chi), with 9; and Rome Odunze (WR-Chi), with 8. What I am suggesting is that this passing attack has more options and is more fluid than we might expect. There may be some tweaks, with Odunze benefiting the most from them.
What I am very interested in here is their rushing attack, as they are 31st in yards per carry (3.7) as a team (right above Dallas). D’Andre Swift (RB-Chi), though having 119 total yards and 1 TD in each of his last 3 games, is only averaging 3.6 yards per carry. He is still a force in the passing game, as he has been in his career, but I do wonder if he may cede more carries to his backfield mates. We may see more Roschon Johnson (RB-Chi) or Khalil Herbert (RB-Chi), who has a career average of 4.8 yard per carry.
- With the news of Andy Dalton (QB-Car), Diontae Johnson (WR-Car), and Adam Thielen (WR-Car) not playing this week, if you are forced to start anyone left on Carolina’s offense, e.g., Chuba Hubbard (RB-Car), may you find the luck of a thousand four-leaf clovers.
10. (In the spirit of Halloween) And finally…, I wonder why I never hear ghosts lie. I guess they know that people can see right through them.