By Winsto (10/27/2023)
1. There are many rumors out there regarding this topic. I really wonder if this may be the last time we see Derrick Henry in a Titans uniform this Sunday. The opponent is Atlanta, whose defense is top tier against the run. It is tied for 8th best in terms of YPC (3.7) and 1st in rushing TDs allowed (1). Derrick Henry, statistically speaking, is pretty doing the same thing he has done the last several years, except for one thing: getting carries. He is averaging over 5 rushing attempts LESS per game than he did in 2022. Thus, he is still Derrick Henry. He is just seeing less touches. Despite Atlanta’s success, you still play him. Why? Because he is Derrick Henry, and he may also be aware that this could be his last game in a Tennessee uniform.
As for who may trade for him, trades are very tricky to try and predict. The ones that happen tends to be something few people foresee. If I had to guess, he will not be traded. But if he were to be traded, Baltimore makes the most sense, at least to me.
And also, I would avoid playing anyone else from Tennessee’s offense if I could help it—my apologies, DeAndre Hopkins.
2. I wonder if we truly realize just how impressive Puka Nacua’s rookie season has been so far. His target share has actually increased since the return of Cooper Kupp. In his first 4 games (without Kupp), Nacua saw a target share of 31%. Since Kupp’s return, Nacua has a target share of 33%, which astonishingly is HIGHER than Kupp’s target share (31%). There is no reason to think they cannot both continue to co-exist and produce top 15 (at the minimum) WR numbers. As I mentioned before, this means limited targets for the rest of the pass catchers, which will limit their consistency.
3. I wonder if I am the only one hesitant to start Jahmyr Gibbs against Las Vegas. Don’t get me wrong: this is a great match-up and opportunity for Gibbs. I am starting him. I just don’t trust Dan Campbell: I could see Gibbs get some nice empty yards and Craig Reynolds or even Jermar Jefferson taking all of the valuable goal line work. You may say, well Gibbs played 87% of the snaps in Week 08 and you would be correct. However, that could have been because Reynolds was not completely healthy going into the week—he missed some practice time heading into that game. I hope I am just being too skeptical. I am probably being too skeptical. Still, I would not be shocked by this if Reynolds and/or Jefferson get more carries than they should.
4. When looking at the Jets-Giants matchup, we will be looking at two offenses that have struggled early on in the year. I already discussed the Giants offense may have turned a corner and have at least looked functional recently. I am curious if the Week 07 Bye will help the Jets as much, if not more. The Giants defense is not one to shy away from, ranking 3rd worst in both YPC allowed (5) and rushing TDs allowed (10). It is better against the pass but only middle of the pack. If Zach Wilson can continue to be functional against defenses that are not top tier, which he has (sort of) shown to be doing, then Garrett Wilson could have some nice games! Breece Hall, meanwhile, should be a line-up lock until proven otherwise.
5. I wonder what we can expect from the Bengals passing attack coming off the Week 07 Bye. Joe Burrow is having career lows in completion percentage, Yards Per Attempt (YPA), yards per game, and TD%s. Ja’Marr Chase, meanwhile is seeing a lower Yards Per Reception (Y/R) BUT more reception per game and receiving yards per game. As for Tee Higgins, the results have not been as kind. To be fair, Higgins has been fighting through injury. I would not be surprised if this passing offense picks it up, though maybe not completely this week, as it is facing the ballyhooed San Francisco defense. This may not be a ceiling game for members of the Bengal passing attack, but Chase is obviously locked in as a starter in your line-up.
6. Meanwhile, Joe Mixon’s stats are comparable to his stats from 2022. He just isn’t finding the endzone as often, which is a by-product of the offense’s struggles in the passing game. If the passing attack can get back to its ability it showed in 2022, Mixon’s fantasy stats should do the same.
7. The Houston-Carolina match-up intrigues me. Both of the backfields are in a bit of flux. In Houston, we saw Dameon Pierce, after looking like he was pulling away from Singletary earlier in the season, lose snaps to Devin Singletary in Week 6. Pierce played 33% to Singletary’s 54%. In addition, Singletary received 6 Red Zone touches compared to Pierce’s 4. Pierce has found few holes to run through this season. His yards before contact per attempt (YBC/ATT) sits at 1.3; it was 2.0 in 2022. However, he has not had the same success this season in yards after contact per attempt (YAC/ATT) compared to last season: 2.3 to 1.6. Some of this is due to the situation he is getting the ball: predictable early down rushes where the defense is stacking the box. But unless the coaches change their approach, fantasy managers cannot really expect much to change. In addition, Singletary is running behind that same line. His YBC/ATT sits at 2.2 and his YAC/ATT is at 1.7. And to top this off, Singletary is averaging 3.6 YPC on 1st and 2nd downs while Pierce is averaging 3.1 and 2.7 YPC on 1st and 2nd down respectively. The reality is we may be looking at a committee in the foreseeable future, a committee on a team that has really struggled to run the ball—3.2 YPC. Thus, I am not sure how much long-term value there is here unless one of the two emerges.
Regardless, for Week 08, they have a great matchup. Carolina’s rush defense is not good. It is 5th worst in YPC (4.9) and has given up the most TDs (12) on the ground in the league (despite already having its Bye week). Thus, both could be used as a low-end Flex.
8. In that same game, I wonder if Chuba Hubbard can build on his momentum and take the lion’s share of the carries over Miles Sanders in the next game or two. The biggest difference between Hubbard and Sanders this season is the Yards Before Contact per Attempt (YBC/ATT). Hubbard sits at 2.7 while Sanders sits at 1.6. Now, Sanders has been dealing with some injuries this season, and his other metrics are about where they were last season, though slightly down in some areas. The reality is unless Sanders gets healthy, which he did have a Bye week to do so, then Hubbard may be able to take control of this backfield. One can say Sanders will still get work because of the contract, but I think we are at the point of the season when contracts and draft status become irrelevant. The Texans defense is middle of the pack against the rush (3.9 YPC) but has given up the 7th most rushing TDs (despite already having its Bye week.)
9. I am curious to see if Jordan Addison can build upon his impressive Week 07 performance when he faces a Green Bay secondary that 3rd in receiving yards allowed and tied for 4th in receiving TDs allowed. He has a 20% target share in games Justin Jefferson has missed, and that includes his missed time in Week 07 with cramping. So far, it does look like he is separating from K. J. Osborn, whose target share in those same two games is 14%. If Addison, who I have ranked at 20 for WRs this week can continue this trend, he will continue to move up my rankings. Meanwhile, T. J. Hockenson’s 26% target share will keep him my top 4 (at the very worst) in TE rankings.
10. And finally (in the spirit of Halloween)… I wonder why I just saw a ghost go into a bar! I guess he was just looking for some boos!!!
P.S. In the Halloween spirit, may all the fantasy players with Halloween names fare well this weekend. Of course, I am looking at players like…
Raheem Ghostert
The Haunting of Taysom Hill House
D. J. Quoth the Raven, NeverMoore
Drake Werewolves of London
Aman-Ra St It’s the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown
Drue 2! A Madea Halloween Tranquill
Kirk Hocus PoCoussins
Patrick and tired of all these ghosts in Mahomes
Najee-whiz, I just saw a ghost! Harris
Jalen a vampire bite Hurts
I was so scared I almost had a heartaDak Prescott
Isiah see a ghost! Pacheco
David S. PumpKenny Pickett
Abraham Lincoln, Vampire Hunter Henry
Tommy Tremble in fear!
Foster The Island of Dr. Moreau
Breece Happy Halloween!