By Winsto (10/18/2024)
1. It is not really groundbreaking for me to say that the Jets addition of Davante Adams (WR) is going to benefit both Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers (QB). Adams immediately moves up into top 15 status, and that may be too conservative. Meanwhile, Rodgers becomes a borderline QB1/QB2. I believe Breece Hall (RB) will actually benefit as well, as teams will now have to worry about both Adams and Garrett Wilson (WR), thus allowing more space for Hall to run. Yes, he will probably lose a few targets, but the increased running space and more Red Zone opportunities should more than make up for it. Sadly, not all will benefit. Garrett Wilson is the biggest fantasy loser of this trade, as he now falls into more of a borderline WR2/WR3 category. Allen Lazard (WR) also loses in fantasy production, though he will still occasionally catch the random TD. I also think the Adams trade was the final blow to any hope for fantasy production from Tyler Conklin (TE).
Speaking of the Jets, did anyone else notice that the coaching change may have benefitted Breece Hall? In Week 06, he saw 87% of the snaps, which was the highest percentage he has seen all season. If that continues, the dreams of Hall finishing as a top 5 RB may not been crushed.
2. Staying with the trade theme, the acquisition of Amari Cooper (WR) by the Bills will resemble what we just discussed with the Jets. Josh Allen (RB) chances as finishing as the number one fantasy QB has improved. Cooper goes from fantasy purgatory to a top 20 WR. James Cook will lose targets but gain more Red Zone opportunities. Khalil Shakir (WR), Dalton Kincaid (TE), Keon Coleman (WR), and the rest of the pass catchers drop in fantasy value. HOWEVER, I do not think they drop as much value as the rest of the Jets pass catchers. I still think Shakir is a WR3 even with Cooper now in town. This is partly because Buffalo’s offense is just better, and it should be able to support more fantasy points than the offense of the Jets.
3. I am going to continue with the trade theme, but give me a moment to explain. Kansas City’s offense was going to be quite a sight this season. I could see what they were building, with Hollywood Brown (WR) and Xavier Worthy (WR) both stretching the field and opening up the middle so that Rashee Rice (WR) and Travis Kelce (TE) could catch passes and Isiah Pacheco (RB) would have more space to run. Patrick Mahomes (QB) would have so many options! Oh, it would have been beautiful. Well, that plan fell apart even before the season began. Rice is out for the season. Brown, who was put on IR even before the season began, “may” return for by the end of the season, but his return for fantasy is probably not going to happen. Pacheco is still weeks away from a return. JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR), at least in the one game after Rice was injured, looks like a decent replacement for Rice. However, I think Kansas City knows that depending on Smith-Schuster for a full season to stay healthy would be unwise, and that another option is needed. Thus, what I am suggesting here is that do not be surprised when Kansas City does trade for another wide receiver (as well as sign Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who was recently released by Buffalo, to the practice squad). And, when I say “do not be surprised,” what I am really saying is that Kansas City WILL make a trade. Who could that receiver be? Diontae Johnson (WR-Carolina) and Darius Slayton (WR-NYG) are the two names to watch. Obviously, either would benefit substantially if a trade occurs. As for Smith-Schuster and Travis Kelce, I think their value will remain about the same, as they should still be the target monsters in the middle of the field. You know who else would benefit, incidentally? Patrick Mahomes!
4. TNF’s Denver-New Orleans game was not pretty. The New Orleans offense of Weeks 01 and 02 looks like a distant memory. Yes, injuries have been brutal for them, but that game was still not pretty. I have to give my colleague Brooksie a nod, as he predicted that Javante Williams (RB-Denver) was going to have a good game, and he did (105 total yards and 2 TDs). I have been very leery of Denver’s offense, and any player in it, so far this season, but Williams may have more value than I anticipated. Carolina’s defense is up next for Williams, so I will be ranking him much higher for Week 08 than I did for Week 07.
5. I wonder how many fantasy managers will actually be questioning whether or not to start David Montgomery (RB-Det) and/or Jahmyr Gibbs (RB-Det) this week against Minnesota. Look, I am typically one who believes in starting your fantasy stars, and both are fantasy stars. The problem, however, is this: in Minnesota’s 5 games so far this season, the only team to top 100 yards rushing against them was San Francisco with 102. Notice, I am writing “team.” Jordan Mason (RB-SF) had 100 yards rushing and 1 TD in that game, as he had 20 of the 23 designed rushes. In the other four games, Minnesota’s defense has allowed a total team rushing amount of 74 (NYG), 38 (Hou), 86 (GB), and 36 (NYJ). Here are Detroit’s team rushing totals by game: 163 (LAR), 139 (TB), 187 (Ari), 116 (Sea), and 184 (Dal). Look, Detroit is top 10 in rushing, but San Francisco AND Green Bay have been better this season. Both were held in check by Minnesota. The question here is what do we expect Detroit’s total rushing yardage to be against Minnesota? Then, we have to basically split that number in two, as Montgomery and Gibbs have almost the exact same rushing yards on the season (Montgomery-352 and Gibbs-348). Expectations should be tempered. That said, the game has the 2nd highest over/under of the week (50.5), with Detroit’s implied total to be 24. In addition, Detroit is 1st in points per game. Thus, I think you are hoping for a TD if you start either one of them. Without a TD, we could be looking at a low floor game. Keep in mind that Minnesota has only allowed 1 rushing TD so far this season.
6. I wonder how many touches Nick Chubb (RB-Cle) will receive when he returns to the field against Cincinatti. Cleveland’s offense is a dumpster fire, averaging 3.9 yards per play. That is not a typo. Per play! That is the worst in the league, and the worst yards per play by an offense in the last 10 years (and possibly even longer, honestly—I just stopped looking). And, that was happening WITH Amari Cooper (WR-Cle Buf). As long as Deshaun Watson (QB) is the QB, which according to reports, the staff is going to stick with him, I do not see much hope here. Chubb should help, but I would not expect miracles here. In his first game back, I would envision him receiving 10-15 attempts. For the rest of the season, Chubb may be the only player on this offense worth rostering, unless you are in the deepest of leagues. I know with Amari Cooper gone, David Njoku (TE) should see more targets, but he has been injured and I think it shows. In addition, would more targets even matter at this point if they are not catchable?
7. I suppose this is an okay week to start De’Von Achane (RB-Mia) and Tyreek Hill (RB-Mia) and actually have some hope for fantasy production, as it is against Indianapolis. I still would not expect a high ceiling, and the reality is that Tua Tagovailoa (QB-Mia) still does not seem close to returning. (Honestly, if you can find someone who believes Tua will return and restore fantasy value to these players, I would listen to those trade offers for Achane, Hill, or anyone else on this Miami offense.) I would leave all other Miami players on my bench.
8. Two defenses that have been elite in recent years have not been as elite this season: Baltimore and San Francisco. Yes, Baltimore still shuts down the run (3 ypc allowed and 59 yards allowed per game), but they are also giving up 275.7 passing yards per game, which is 2nd most. As for San Francisco, they are more upper middle of the pack in both ypc (4.4) allowed and passing yards per game (215.2) allowed.
What does this mean? For this week, you simply should avoid playing Rachaad White (RB-TB), if he plays, Bucky Irving (RB-TB), and Sean Tucker (RB-TB). There has already been talk by coaches of “playing the hot hand,” which is one of the worst things for fantasy football purposes. Compound that with Baltimore’s run defense, and I would try to find other options. Look, I still “think” Irving will be the guy here, but this may be murky for the next couple of weeks.
9. I sense a scoring fest is going to happen with Houston v. Green Bay and Seattle v. Atlanta. Aside from the obvious fantasy plays, consider Christian Watson (WR-GB), Tyler Allgeier (RB-Atl), Romeo Doubs (WR-GB), Noah Fant (TE-Sea), and, in deeper leagues, Ray-Ray McCloud (WR-Atl). These two games have 2 of the 4 highest over/under lines of the week.
10. And finally…, I was driving the other day and saw a new retail store. I noticed through the window that inside, there was a pirate buying a hook. I wonder if the new business was a second hand store.