By Winsto (10/20/2023)
1. I promised myself I would not do this. I vowed that NO MORE! No more would I fall into the seemingly transparent traps that Dan Campbell always sets for fantasy football owners regarding his speedy running backs. Yet, here I am. Here I am! I feel like Charlie Brown trying to simply kick a football with Lucy holding.
I somehow cannot walk away. David Montgomery is OUT. In his press conference, Detroit Lions Head Coach had this to say regarding Jahmyr Gibbs:
Certainly, I think he’s going to need to take the load of (the work)…. We’re just going to have to see where he’s at. I’d like to say we want to be careful with him, but the reality of it is we need him. We’ll go as far as he can take us here, trying to be as smart as we can, but he’s gotta go. He’s ready, he’s ready (nfl.com).
Gibbs was removed from the injury list. AND, to top that off, Craig Reynolds looks like he is truly questionable, so even if he does play, he may not be 100%. Could this finally be happening????? Or, will Lucy Dan Campbell trick me again? The match-up is not ideal, as Baltimore’s Defense is a top 15 defense against the rush, and it has only given up 1 rushing touchdown all season. But, Detroit likes to run, as they are top ten in rushing attempts, yardage, and touchdowns. In addition, the Ravens are actually better against the pass, so I would expect Detroit to use its strength (running the ball) against Baltimore. With that in mind, I do not see this being a ceiling game for Jared Goff, Aman-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Josh Reynolds, though St. Brown and LaPorta should not be leaving starting line-ups in fantasy.
The simple truth is this: unless you have elite options at running back, you are starting Gibbs this week. In addition, if I were a Gibbs owner, I am hoping, though I am not expecting, for a huge game–a statement game. I would be hoping/begging for a game where Gibbs imposes his will and makes it impossible for Campbell to relegate him back to just a change of pace/3rd down back when Montgomery returns. This is probably not going to happen, but that is what I would be hoping for, if I am a Gibbs owner. (In case you could not tell from this entire section, I have many shares of Gibbs in fantasy football.)
2. In that same game, I wonder if we will get to see Keaton Mitchell. He was activated last week but saw no touches. Gus Edwards is a coach favorite, but he has limitations (in passing game). Justice Hill has seen a lot of run, but he has had his share of miscues. Is it not out of the realm of possibility that Coach Harbaugh has seen what both Miami has done with De’Von Achane and what Denver has done with Jaleel McLaughlin and then thought, “huh, maybe I should try that?”
3. Ah, nothing like a Week 07 match-up of back-up QBs: Tyson Bagent versus Brian Hoyer. I would expect A LOT of Brandon Jacobs here. I would still obviously play Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers if they are normally in your line-up. There are worse back-ups than Brian Hoyer: he could have some success. Chicago’s pass defense is not good—3rd most YPA allowed, 3rd most passing yards allowed, and 2nd most passing TDs allowed. On a side note, if you have been struggling at the position, as many have, you may consider Michael Mayer against Chicago. In Week 06, Brian Hoyer targeted him on 20% of his passes, and Mayer saw a jump in playing time (81% playing time).
I would also expect A LOT of D’Onta Foreman, as should get the start now that Roschon Johnson has been ruled out. Foreman makes for a solid Bye Week fill-in. The Raiders defense is bottom third in terms of rushing yards allowed, YPC allowed (4.3), and TDs allowed (7). He offers little in passing situations, but this should stay a fairly tight game—Vegas has the Raiders favored by 2.5. Thus, Foreman’s playing time should remain consistent throughout the game as opposed to if Chicago was trying to play catch-up.
4. I wonder if the Giants turned a bit of a corner last week with their offense and their offensive line? No, I am not saying it was good. But, it was not a pure, unadulterated dumpster fire inside a trainwreck that it has been the last few weeks. Think about it. The offensive line was so bad that it actually did take someone “straight off the couch” to seemingly help stabilize it. (Thank you, Justin Pugh.) They only gave up 3 sacks! And this was to a Bills team that is tied for the league lead in sacks (24). Maybe there is some light at the end of this tunnel? Saquon Barkley may have more success—Washington’s defense gives up the 7th most YPC (4.6). In PPR, we should be paying attention to Wan’Dale Robinson for the rest of the season. BUT, for me, I am more intrigued by Jalin Hyatt, who saw the 2nd most snaps at receiver in Week 06 behind Darius Slayton. Deeper league managers should also be intrigued. If the Giants offensive line can just provide a little bit of time, the deep passes to Hyatt will come.
5. I have talked, and talked, and talked, and talked, and talked, and talked about Rashee Rice in the past. He has played 50% of the snaps this season, and never topping 51% in a game. He leads the wide receiver room in targets (28), receptions (21), receiving yards (245), and TDs (2). If When his playing time reaches 70% of more per game, I am willing to say that he will be a top 25 wide receiver from that point forward. He is a solid play this week against the Chargers—I have him ranked 32 for this week. In addition, he should not be on your waiver wire.
6. I wonder if we will get the fireworks that everyone expects from the Miami-Philadelphia matchup. It has the highest over/under at 51.5 for the week. Many times, these games do not live up to the hype in terms of scoring. Yet, I would be shocked if this one didn’t hit the over. Philadelphia has injuries in its secondary. Miami should be able to exploit that. Miami’s defense, meanwhile, is nothing to shy away from. For fantasy purposes, you want to start as many players in this game as you can. Yes, you are playing the obvious ones, but in very deep leagues, don’t forget about Jeff Wilson Jr. (who should finally be activated off the IR,) Chase Claypool (if active), Kenny Gainwell, Boston Scott, and Olamide Zaccheaus. For clarity, I “doubt” Julio Jones will be active after just signing.
7. I wonder if there are Puka Nacua fantasy owners nervous after his 4 reception, 26 receiving yard game in Week 06. If you are one of them, do not worry. He had a 29% target share and dropped a TD pass in that game. Stay the course. As for Cooper Kupp, my goodness! He may be the #1 wide receiver in fantasy from here on out. As for Tutu Atwell, he is a boom/bust flex. With Cooper and Nacua taking the targets and Atwell taking the occasional deep shots, there is not much left for Tyler Higbee. You may consider moving on from him.
8. If you are in a position where you have to start a Cardinals running back, I implore you to try and find other options. If I had to pick one, I “guess” I would go with Keaontay Ingram? But if you have not noticed, I have very little confidence in that statement.
9. I wonder what we can expect from Coach Shanahan in terms of his usage of Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell IF Christian McCaffrey misses the Week 07 MNF match-up with Minnesota. As of this writing, we do not know if McCaffrey plays. Mitchell looked to be the clear handcuff earlier in the season, but he suffered an injury, opening the door for more playing time for Mason. That may be something to note, as Mitchell has not proven to be durable in his pro career. Meanwhile, Jordan Mason has looked strong and out-snapped Mitchell 15 to 7 and out-touched Mitchell 5 to 2. Now, that could be due to Mitchell being limited after coming back from injury, but again, the injury aspect cannot be ignored. This is a Monday night game, so if you have McCaffrey, you will need to be able to pivot if he is ruled out. Hopefully, you grabbed Mason and/or Mitchell. I “think” we would see a split of some sort, but I lean toward Mason to be the better play. To be completely honest, though, Shanahan has bewildered and befuddled fantasy managers in the past, so we cannot assume anything. And then of course, if news comes out that McCaffrey plays, you play him, even if he may not receive his normal amount of touches.
In that same game, my guess is Kirk Cousins is going to throw it more than he did last week (31 attempts). I would expect more chances for Jordan Addison and K. J. Osborn here, despite the tough matchup. As for T. J. Hockenson, he should not leave your line-up unless you have Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews.
10. And finally…, I wonder why I saw a frog at the local Department of Motor Vehicles the other day? I guess he was there to get his car back after it got toad.