By Winsto (10/12/2024)
1. First off, wow! I was very wrong in believing that Sam Darnold (QB-Min) and Aaron Rodgers (QB-NYJ) would have good games last week. They did not. For New York, that ultimately led to coaching changes. Robert Saleh (HC) has been fired, and Nathaniel Hackett (OC) has lost play calling duties to Todd Downing (Pass-game Coordinator). I wonder how this will impact the Jets offense. Let’s be honest, it couldn’t get much worse, right? Rodgers’s TD % (3.8) and yards per attempt (6) would be career lows since he became a starter in 2008. Breece Hall (RB) is averaging 3 yards per carry (career low) after averaging 5.8 and 4.5 his first two years (without Rodgers). Garrett Wilson’s (WR) yards per reception (8.8) is substantially lower than his previous 2 seasons (13.3 and 11). Simply put, it has not been pretty. Rodgers and Wilson just don’t seem to be on the same page, yet. And to be honest, I do not know what to expect with Downing taking over the play calling, but in this situation, change seems to be better than no change at all. New York’s opponent for Week 06, Buffalo, is an average defense against the pass. More importantly, however, is Buffalo is worst in the league in yards per attempt given up (5.2). I refuse to believe that Breece Hall is a 3 ypc running back—I have watched to many of his plays to think that. I “think” better games are coming. I still view him as a borderline RB1/2, partly due to the emergence of Braelon Allen. For Rodgers, I would want to see some progress before I am starting him, unless you have no other reasonable options. Regarding Wilson, I am viewing him more as a high end WR3 until I see progress from him as well.
2. As for TNF’s San Francisco-Seattle game, Jordan Mason (RB-SF) fantasy managers should actually give a sigh of relief, as his shoulder injury could have been worse. Yes, I know anytime a fantasy player leaves the game, it is frustrating, but the good news Mason has 10 days to get healthy for Week 07’s game against Kansas City, though that is a very tough rush defense. I would also suggest what I have suggested multiple times in past writings—Isaac Guerendo (RB-SF) is one injury away from being extremely valuable in fantasy football. Yes, Patrick Taylor Jr., who did not record a single carry going into this game, had several touches (5 carries for 16 yards and 1 reception for 12 yards). Taylor Jr. also played 16 snaps to Guerendo’s 17. However, it was Guerendo how had the better day (10 carries for 99 yards and slid to avoid a TD for some reason). Granted, 76 of those yards came on 1 carry, but that is sort of the point. Guerendo has that ability. For as long as Christian McCaffrey (RB-SF) is OUT, I am holding Guerendo except in the shallowest of leagues, and I am especially holding onto Guerendo if I have Mason on my fantasy team.
As for the rest of the game, aside from his Week 05 game of 8 receptions for 147 yards, Brandon Aiyuk (WR-SF) has not topped 50 yards receiving in game. In addition, he has yet to find the endzone this season. He was 4th in targets Thursday night, behind Deebo Samuel (WR-SF), George Kittle (TE-SF), and Jauan Jennings (WR-SF). I do think he will have better games, but because of the playmakers on this offense, as with seasons before, these skill position players will lack consistency. I also think Jennings, barring an injury to Samuel, Aiyuk, or Kittle, is probably safe to drop unless you are in deeper leagues. Aside from Week 03, he has now played 60% or more of the snaps on offense.
And as for Seattle, the door to a Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR-Seattle) having a breakout season is slowly closing. He has overtaken Tyler Lockett (WR-Seattle) in playing time this season, and he is 2nd on the team in targets (49) to D. K. Metcalf (51), but his yards per reception (9.1) is substantially lower than Metcalf’s (15.1) and Lockett’s (13). It is even lower than tight ends Noah Fant (9.9) and A.J. Barner (9.4).
3. I wonder if Trey Sermon (RB-Ind) is a good running back? I am not trying to be critical–I really do not know. San Francisco apparently did not think a whole lot of him, as he was let go. He is averaging 3.3 ypc this season, albeit on only 19 attempts. With Jonathan Taylor (RB-Ind) ruled OUT, Sermon should see the majority of snaps (60% or so) against Week 06 opponent, Tennessee. He should also see the majority of carries over fellow running back, Tyler Goodson. Tennessee has a decent rush defense. I think I would be tempering expectations with Sermon this week, especially if Anthony Richardson (QB-Ind) winds up playing.
4. That said, I would be more interested in Ray Davis (RB-Buf) and Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB-NYG) if I am looking for a starter for Week 06. James Cook (RB-Buf) and Devin Singletary (RB-NYG) are both looking truly Questionable. If either or both Cook and Singletary miss, Davis and Tracy are solid plays in my opinion. Buffalo faces off against a Jets defense that is elite versus the pass but only average versus the run. Meanwhile, Tracy would be running against a Cincinatti defense that has given up the 4th most rushing yards and tied for 4th in most rushing TDs allowed.
5. Reports are that Rachaad White (RB-TB) is now Doubtful to play against the Saints. Bucky Irving (RB-TB) is midrange RB2 for me. Sean Tucker (RB-TB) should see a few touches, but Irving should dominate the backfield. In other words, I would be fine starting him this week. The Saints defense is average against the rush (4.4 ypc allowed). Staying in that same game, temper expectations for Mike Evans (WR-TB). Marshon Lattimore (DB-NO) has done a nice job of limiting fantasy production from Evans over the last several years when Tampa Bay and New Orleans meet.
6. I wonder what New England’s offense will look like in Week 06. Look, I am really not sure what to expect from Drake Maye (QB-NE), but the offense did need a change. Now, will the same issues that plague New England’s offense continue, particularly less than stellar offensive line play? Probably. The question is how will the rookie, the 3rd overall pick in the draft rookie, handle it. There is some talent there. In addition, could Maye help make Ja’Lynn Polk (WR-NE)? Fantasy managers in deeper leagues may consider grabbing one or both, depending if you have options to drop, just in case this is the start of something. On the other side of the ball, I would lean into Tank Dell (WR-Hou) for fantasy while Nico Collins (WR-Hou) is on IR.
7. Speaking of offenses needing a change, I wonder if/when Cleveland will make the switch at QB. Deshaun Watson (QB-Cle) has simply not been good. His 4.8 yards per attempt (that is not a misprint) is the lowest in the league (minimum of 70 pass attempts). His QBR is also worst in the league. At some point, despite the contract and what may go down as the single worst trade in NFL history, Cleveland will make the switch to Jameis Winston (QB-Cle), right? Right? I am not saying Winston comes without flaws, but he at least should make the offense more functional, and he should at least breathe new life into the fantasy relevance of Amari Cooper (WR), David Njoku if/when healthy, and maybe even Jerry Jeudy (WR). Cleveland, at 1-4, is on the verge of having a lost season, and they play Philadelphia this weekend. If the game starts off rough for Watson, I could see the switch happening. And if they do not make the switch and lose, I “think” a trade involving Cooper will happen, though NFL trades are very difficult to predict.Any trade “should” be a good thing for him. His receiving yards per game (41.6) and yards per target (4.4) are career lows. (To put some perspective into this, his previous career low for yards per target was 7.1)
In a related note, I mentioned Njoku last week about him producing. Of course, he left the game with a knee injury. Given the TE landscape, I am going back to the well and predicting a decent game, partially because I do believe Winston will take some snaps under center.
8. For IDP fantasy managers, I am going to bang the drum for Trevin Wallace (LB-Carolina) and DeMarvion Overshown (LB-Dallas), as both Josey Jewell (LB-Carolina) and Eric Kendricks (LB-Dallas) have both been ruled out for this weekend. Wallace and Overshown should see more tackle opportunities.
9. I am interested in the 4 teams (Lions, Chargers, Eagles, and Titans) coming off of a Week 05 Bye and those teams made adjustments during their off week. I believe the Lions (3-1) will stick with what they have been doing, sprinkling in a bit more Sam LaPorta (TE-Det). I think the Eagles will benefit from the return of J. Brown (WR-Phi). Regarding the Chargers, Justin Herbert (QB-LAC) had some time to get his ankle healthier. Could the Chargers open up their offense a little bit? Maybe? Gus Edwards (RB-LAC) has been ruled OUT, so we should finally see rookie Kimani Vidal (RB-LAC) get some touches. I am VERY interested to see how he performs. As for the Titans, I am curious to see if Will Levis (QB-Ten) and the passing attack can improve, at least improve the fantasy prospects of Calvin Ridley (WR-Ten). I am not sure if we should expect more from DeAndre Hopkins (WR-Ten), however, as his partially torn MCL did not just heal over the Bye Week.
10. And finally…, I wonder why I keep buying Velcro items. They seem to always be total rip-offs.