By Winsto (10/13/2023)
1. To start off, here are my takeaways from the Thursday Night match-up between Denver and Kansas City:
A. As I have discussed this several times now, Rashee Rice is going to be fantasy relevant. If for some reason he is available, get him! He is the leading wide receiver on the team in terms of targets (28), receptions (21), yardage (245), and TDs (2). And he has done this while only playing 38% of the total snaps on the season and never topping 51% in a game. Most importantly, he simply passes the eye test. The Chiefs now have a mini-bye week. As the Kansas City’s passing attack has sputtered at times—mind you, it is still a top ten attack in yards per game, Coach Andy Reid will do some tinkering. Do we not think that time will be used to make sure Rice gets on the field more so than before? I do. I do. You may ask, “so what is the ceiling, as this offense centers around Travis Kelce?” That is a fair question. I believe there is absolutely room for Rice here. I think his floor is somewhere around 900 yards and 7 TDs for a season total, and that would make him a WR3. And there is always the potential for more with Patrick Mahomes at the helm.
B. Speaking of Mahomes, no he has not lit the league on fire so far this season as usually does. His TD%, passing yards per game, and yards per attempt (YPA) are down compared to his career averages.(Incidentally, his rushing yards per game are 10 yards more than his career average). Despite all of this, he is still eighth in fantasy points per game. I say things will turn around and that ranking will improve. We should never bet against this guy.
C. The rumors of the demise of Javonte Williams were a bit overblown. I admit I boarded the Jaleel McLaughlin train. I still believe McLaughlin is a hold if possible, as the talent is there. There is also the speculation of Denver having a fire sale on players. Despite Denver’s shortcomings, the team can run the ball—4.9 YPC, which is tied for 4th best in the league. If this three-man backfield (we have to factor in Samaje Perine) dropped down to a two-man committee, the McLaughlin train may speed up again.
2. I wonder if Chuba Hubbard can lay claim to the starting running back spot in Carolina this weekend against Miami—I have him ranked 23rd at RB. Miles Sanders is Out for Week 06. In addition, Hubbard has already been outproducing him (4.4 YPC v 3.1 YPC) and has played more snaps than Sanders the last two weeks. Miami’s defense is middle of the pack, so this is not a worrisome match-up. If game script causes Carolina to have to play catch-up, then again, this should not be worrisome, as Hubard has proven himself to be a reliable receiver out of the backfield. If you are a Hubbard owner, you are hoping for a nice game to help him take over this backfield. If he struggles, then we are probably looking at a continued committee in Carolina once Sanders returns, which will probably be after their Week 07 Bye.
3. Staying in the same game, the Jeff Wilson Jr. return looks to be delayed again, as he is listed as Doubtful. Thus, Salvon Ahmed is going to get carries. Miami has never given Raheem Mostert more than 18 carries in a game, and based on the Vegas odds (Miami favored by 14), Miami should have carries to spare. He is a solid option for Week 06. I have him ranked 35.
4. I wonder if I am the only one who has Saquon Barkley and actually hopes he does not play in Week 06? I do not want to be forced to decide whether or not to start him. Buffalo’s defense can actually be run on, as it gives up 5.8 YPC, which is last in the NFL. The concern is obvious: the Giants offense is a dumpster fire right now. It is down several of its starting lineman and starting quarterback. It has not been able to score a TD in the first half ALL SEASON! In addition, Buffalo could jump out to a big lead and cause the Giants coaches to pull Barkley if he did play. Barkley is an elite running back, and I have been a Barkley fan since he came into the league. I am also of the opinion that you never bench your elite players. Yet, even I have reservations about his success while playing in this exercise in utter ineptitude that is the Giants offense. I did not rank him this week, mostly because I “think” he will wind up sitting. If he does play, he would be in the RB3 range.
5. I am starting Breece Hall against Philadelphia and Christian McCaffrey against Cleveland, despite both defenses being top five against the run. I do not care. There is no wondering here. This section is specifically directed toward fantasy managers trying to get too cute with their line-ups.
6. I wonder if there is any single New England offensive player we have remote confidence in starting? Oh wait, I do not wonder this. There is no single New England offensive player I have confidence in starting. However, sometimes we have to start players we are not confident in. With that in mind, Rhamondre Stevenson surely will do something at some point, right? Right???
7. With Justin Jefferson missing some time, I wonder who will wind up being the better fantasy receiver during his absence? The Athletic reported that K. J. Osborn will “seamlessly” slide into Jefferson’s “X” role, and he should obviously see an increase in targets. Still, my money is on Jordan Addison, who already has more receiving yards, targets, receptions, and TDs than Osborn, despite playing significantly less snaps. Regardless, both should see a boom in production (as well as T. J. Hockenson), and are fantasy startable, but give me Addison of the two. He is my 25th ranked receiver, and I am worried that I may be too low.
8. I wonder if this is the weekend we see the debut of Keaton Mitchell for Baltimore? He has practiced fully all week. We will find out by Saturday afternoon. IF he is activated and you have the room, he is a good grab. What I am about to propose depends on your league settings, but if they allow it, think about this idea. Considering Baltimore plays Tennessee in the morning game, you could waive a kicker, pick Mitchell up, and see how he does. If he does nothing special, simply waive him for another kicker before the rest of the games kick off. If he does, however, spark, then you made yourself a nice shrewd move—yes, you would then have to cut someone else to get a kicker, but you may have found a gem in Mitchell.
9. Regarding Arizona, I wonder how the carries will be distributed in the backfield? Emari Demercado was a waiver wire target this week in many leagues, and rightfully so. The fly in the ointment, however, is the likely return of Keaontay Ingram, who had missed the last several games with a neck injury. I think this will be a committee of sorts while James Conner is on IR. If I had to pick one, though, I would lean toward Demercado.
10. And finally… I wonder why I made myself a belt out of watches? It was such a waist of time!