By Winsto (10/05/2024)
1. Looking back on the TNF Tampa Bay-Atlanta game, call me crazy, but it looked like Kirk Cousins (QB-Atlanta) was starting to find his grove in this offense. He had struggles against some tougher defenses (Pittsburgh and New Orleans) so far, but he had fared okay otherwise. Could this be the start of the type of fantasy QB Cousins has been the last few years? Perhaps. I will be ranking him as a low end QB1 next week. Look, he is probably not going to attempt 58 passes again in the foreseeable future, but it seems like Atlanta is starting to open up its passing attack. If you are need of a QB and he is available, I would grab him, especially with his fantasy play-off schedule. Also, since I am buying into Cousins, I am also buying into Darnell Mooney (WR) as a WR3/4 moving forward and Kyle Pitts (TE) as a Tight End I can start in fantasy in 2024.
On the Tampa Bay side, it looks like Rachaad White (RB) will not go away quietly for Bucky Irving (RB) fantasy managers. White had a nice 56-yard rush, and Irving had a costly fumble. I still think this backfield will shift in Irving’s favor, but it may take another week or two. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield (QB-TB) continues his solid fantasy season, though a Week 06 matchup against the New Orleans defense could cool him off.
2. I do not wonder about this at all: if I have Jayden Reed (WR-GB) or Dontayvion Wicks (WR-GB) on my fantasy team, I am starting them. Christian Watson (WR-GB) is OUT. Romeo Doubs (WR-GB) went from Doubtful to Reserve/Suspended List. Apparently, he skipped practice because he was unhappy with his current role on the offense. That is definitely a choice. The bottom line is this: Green Bay’s opponent, the L.A. Rams, have given up the 4th most receiving TDs (8) and have given up the highest yards per pass attempt (9.1). I am also not fading Jordan Love (QB-GB) even with him missing a few of his weapons. Even Bo Melton (WR-GB) may be a sneaky pick in deeper leagues.
3. I do wonder how the Chiefs are going to replace Rashee Rice (WR-KC). (Sigh!) Travis Kelce (TE-KC) is going to be the Chief beneficiary (pun intended). We saw that in Week 04, as Kelce had a season high in all of the following categories: targets (9), receptions (7), and receiving yards (89). I think Kelce will be finishing as a top 3 TE on a weekly basis for as long as Rice is out—still some mystery there. Also, JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR-KC) should also see an uptick in targets. I do not see a duplication of his 2022 season with the Chiefs, but he could prove to be a decent/steady WR4/5, particularly in PPR leagues. As for the rookie, Xavier Worthy (WR-KC), it really is going to depend on how he progresses, but make no mistake, the door is wide open for him to be the unquestioned number one option at wide receiver for this offense. From a fantasy perspective, I see him as a volatile low end WR2, high end WR3 at the moment. How is this going to affect Patrick Mahomes (QB-KC)? If it was any other QB who has now lost his top two receivers (Rice and Hollywood Brown), I would be very hesitant to start him, especially against stingy defenses like the one he will face Monday night (New Orleans). I do not foresee a high ceiling for him anytime soon. That said, we are talking about Mahomes. I cannot bet against him.
4. Evan Engram (TE-Jax) is unlikely to play against Colts in Week 05. May I present to you, once again, Brenton Strange (TE-Jax). He is a Tight End, and he has a pulse. That means he is startable in 2024. He has a plus matchup against the Colts defense this week. Speaking of Tight Ends, I wonder how David Njoku’s (TE-Cle) return is going to go, assuming he does in fact play. He has not played since Week 01. The landscape is so desperate for some Tight Ends to step forward. Njoku could be one of those guys.
5. I spend some time last week discussing shifts in several backfields, but I did not mention one that I thought about mentioning: the Cincinnatti backfield. Look Zack Moss (RB-Cin) has been capable (3.9 ypc), there is nothing exciting about “capable.” What is exciting is averaging 6.3 ypc rushing behind the same line. That is Chase Brown (RB-Cin), and after playing 2nd fiddle to Moss in the first three weeks, in Week 04, they had the same number of rushes (15). Brown saw only one less target than Moss as well. Brown, most importantly, saw 5 Red Zone looks to Moss’s 2. Anyone notice Cincinnatti had not won a game until this happened? I think that matters. Brown had not had more than 1 Red Zone look in a game thus far this season. I do think a shift is occurring, and Brown is going to take over the majority of touches in this backfield. Their Week 05 matchup against Baltimore is going to be tough, but I will be looking at the snap share between Brown and Moss. This should tell us how the rest of the season will look for this backfield.
6. I wonder how the Jets-Vikings game in London is going to go. London games can sometimes go a way not expected. Both defenses thus far have proven to be tough, especially the Vikings defense versus the rush and the Jets defense versus the pass. I do wonder, however, due to the small sample size and opponents played by each team how “true” those statistics are. Sam Darnold (QB-Min) has been a pleasant surpise this season, make no mistake. Can he keep it going? I think he does, as well as the pass catchers for Minnesota. As for the Jets, can Aaron Rodgers (QB-NYJ) bounce back after last week’s solid performance? I think he As for Breece Hall (RB-NYJ), I do temper my expectations. Between the tough matchup and Braelon Allen (RB-NYJ) taking away more touches than expected, I think we are hoping for him to find paydirt at some point in the game to make for an okay fantasy day. I think he does.
7. Here is my bold prediction for Week 05: Jordan Whittington leads all Rams receivers in fantasy points. He led the team in snaps at the WR position in Week 04, and I think that will continue until Cooper Kupp (WR-LAR) returns, which could be after the Rams Bye Week in Week 06.
8. I believe the Colts passing attack will benefit from Joe Flacco (QB-Colts) playing under center in Week 05. Michael Pittman (WR-Colts) and Josh Downs (QB-Colts) should have solid days at the office.
9. As tempting as it may be to play Miami’s skill position players against New England this week, it has not been good for the Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa (QB-Mia). With Raheem Mostert (RB-Mia) set to return this week, even De’Von Achane (RB-Mia) is not a certain play. Tyreek Hill (WR-Mia) would be difficult to bench, because he just needs one play to make playing him worthwhile. I would still roll out Hill, unless I had elite options elsewhere. As for Achane and Mostert, they are probably Flex plays until Tua returns.
10. And finally…, I wonder why I have a fear of moving stairs. Sadly, it is escalating.