Weekend Wonderings: Week 05

1. I wonder if you, dear reader, realize that I can be wrong on occasion.  I had certain ideas about how the Washington passing attack would be this season.  For example, I had thoughts regarding Jahan Dotson.  Going into the season, I was quite bullish on him, but oh the humanity!  Through five games, he has 17 receptions, 140 receiving yards, and 1 TD. And, it is not like Terry McLaurin is stealing all of the thunder, as he only has 25 receptions, 261 receiving yards, and 1 TD. In Week 5, somehow Sam Howell threw 51 times: both McLaurin and Dotson only saw 5 targets each.  Logan Thomas, my dear readers, is the one taking the thunder.  He has more receptions, receiving yards, and TDs than Dotson on the season, and Thomas has played one less game.  In 2023, Dotson has not topped 40 yards receiving in a game; Thomas has done this in three out of his four.  Simply put, McLaurin is still a WR2/WR3, though it is looking less likely that he will push into the high end WR2 range.  But for Dotson, despite the talent, he is droppable if you see something on the waiver wire that you fancy.  If Dotson could not get it done against Chicago’s defense, when will he?  As for Thomas, he will be higher in my future rankings.  Additionally, Sam Howell can prove to be a Bye Week fill-in, as he is startable depending on the matchup. 

 

2. Just a reminder: do not bench your fantasy stars.  I am specifically referring to the Dallas v. San Francisco game. Christian McCaffrey, Tony Pollard, Ceedee Lamb, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle should not leave your starting line-up.  Vegas has the over/under at 45, with the 49ers favored by 3.5, so this is not really a game to shy away from.  As for Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy, this is probably not going to be a ceiling game.  We should temper our expectations for the rest of the fantasy players as well.

One thing we have to understand, though, is there are only so many receiving yards and receiving TDs to go around for San Francisco, so there will be weeks where Samuel, Aiyuk, or Kittle will be relatively quiet.  There will also be weeks where any one (or more) of them can explode.  That will probably be the reality of this season, so do not overreact to Samuel or Kittle’s quiet Week 4. 

 

3. Going back to players I believed would have good seasons, I will go ahead and admit it is not looking good for my prediction regarding Juwan Johnson to take the next step this season. I admit I did not believe that Michael Thomas would be able to come back from his injury and play such a prominent role, filling the role I believed Johnson would hold.  Thomas has.  However, I also did not predict how rough the New Orleans passing attack would start. Derek Carr, despite having some talent at the skill position, is on pace for arguably his worst year, statistically.  Yes, it is a small sample size (3 ½ games), but there are some concerning results thus far.  His 6.2 YPA is the worst it has ever been since his rookie season—his career average is 7.1.  His TD% is the worst it has ever been (6)–his career percentage is 4.3.  His completed air yards per attempt (3.4) is the worst of his career.  Simply put, he does not look the same in New Orleans like he looked with the Raiders.  To paraphrase an observation of a friend: if different quarterbacks look the same in an offensive scheme, then it might just be the offensive scheme.  In other words, I am worried the New Orleans coaching staff broke Derek Carr, which is part of the reason the TDs have been too few and far between—Chris Olave and Thomas, despite seeing 70 targets between them for the season, have zero TDs.  Surely, there will be some positive regression, but the hope that Olave may make a big receiving TD jump this season—he only had 4 in 2022—may be dampening.

 

4. I “think” it would be wise for Jonathan Taylor owners to hold off starting him this week. Reports are that he will gradually be ramped up in the coming weeks, as he was still coming off an injury. Compound that with Indianapolis’s opponent being Tennessee, who are only allowing 2.9 YPC and have given up only 1 TD on the season, you may be better served keeping Taylor on your bench for Week 05. In addition, we should temper expectations for Zach Moss, as this is a difficult match-up and he will cede some carries to Taylor.

 

5. I wonder if we are about to see a break-out game of Breece Hall (v. Denver).  HC Robert Saleh stated that the limitations on Hall are now over.  We are heading into Week 05, and as I wrote before the season began, we had to give Hall a few games before he would take off.  Denver’s rush defense is bad: they have given up the most rushing yards (704) and tied for giving up the most rushing TDs (7).  In addition, Zach Wilson did not look awful in Week 4.  Hall did have success last season with Wilson at the helm, and I mentioned before that Wilson ran into some tough defenses (Buffalo, Dallas, New England, and then Kansas City) to start the season. Well, from what we have seen, Denver is not a tough defense.  I would fire Hall up unless I had some very high end options.  In that same vein, fire up Garrett Wilson if you were unsure.  Yes, Patrick Surtain II is an elite CB, but there are just too many holes in this defense for Wilson not to still have success.

 

6. I wonder if fantasy owners in a bind may look to Josh Reynolds (and even Kalif Raymond in deeper leagues) for Week 05. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs are both Doubtful and not expected to play. In addition, Jameson Williams will be making his 2023 debut, and my hunch is Coach Campbell won’t just throw him into the fire. Surely, David Montgomery can’t get every touch, right? Sidenote here: David Montgomery is set up to have himself a day. Start him!

 

7. The game with the highest over/under in Week 05 is the Kansas City v. Minnesota matchup.  You are obviously playing the usual suspects (Mahomes, Kelce, Pacheco, Cousins, Jefferson, Hockenson, and probably Mattison), but if you are in deeper leagues or need a Bye Week fill-in, this is the game to consider the less obvious ones: Jordan Addison, J. Osborne, and Rashee Rice.  Addison, admittedly, is a bit boom-or-bust, but he has proven to be useful when he gets the chance.  I am especially interested in Rice.  Kansas City is still trying to figure out its receivers, as demonstrated by the more even distribution of playing time among their top four (Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Skyy Moore, Justin Watson, and Rashee Rice).  The team knows it needs to find a stable option, one that is a chain mover, in the receiving unit, and Rice is the one I think takes that role.  Despite playing the least amount of the four thus far, he is second in receiving yards and first in targets and receptions. This is a game Rice can show he is that option. Of course, Kadarius Toney is always the wild card, but his floor is basically zero. 

 

8. I wonder if we will ever bench D. J. Moore again in 2023. We all know the stat line (8-230-3) from Thursday night by now. Jeez! How can we possibly leave him out of the starting line-up for the immediate future.

 

9. I wonder when we will see Keaton Mitchell and Jeff Wilson Jr.? Both were eligible to come off of the injured reserve today: it did not happen. It looks like we will have to wait at least another week before they are activated. I still believe they will become fantasy relevant in the near future.

 

10. I am very curious to see what happens Sunday with Jaleel McLaughlin’s usage. I think he is going to be a fantasy asset that you want to have on your team for the rest of the season.

 

11. And finally… I always wonder why I am distrustful of trees. Maybe it is nothing, but they always just seem too shady to me.