By Winsto (09/28/2024)
1. Reflecting on TNF’s Cowboys-Giants game, I wonder if the Dallas backfield is simply going to be a fantasy wasteland this season. After 4 games, the backfield has yet to see anyone rush for more than 11 attempts, and it has only produced 2 total touchdowns (1 rushing and 1 receiving). The only running back to see more than 50% of the snaps in game this season is, you guessed it, Fullback Hunter Luepke (52% in Week 04). It does look like Ezekiel Elliot’s snaps have decreased, but Luepke is the actual beneficiary, not Rico Dowdle. Dowdle has yet to see more than 46% of snaps in a game. He is Dallas’s leading rusher on the season (34 attempts for 134 yards / 3.9 ypc), so he is “the guy” in fantasy, I guess. I just don’t see much of a ceiling here, especially considering the team’s struggles to run the ball (30th in rushing yards per game).
On the other side of the ball, Malik Nabers, once he returns from the concussion he suffered, will be in my top 10 WR rankings until proven otherwise. He is the real deal.
2. I wonder how we should approach Kansas City’s backfield. Last week, I advised adding Carson Steele, who saw 62% of the snaps and was solid in Week 03 (17 carries for 72 yards / 4.2 ypc. He also had 1 reception for 2 yards). He should still be viewed as the “starter” right now. The signing of Kareem Hunt to the team’s practice squad last week was something, but the quick elevation to the 53-man roster early this week is very much something.
Backstory time: For those of you who are unaware, Kareem Hunt used to be the starting RB for the Chiefs. He played almost 2 seasons (2017-2018ish) with them, and he was a fantasy beast, particularly his second season. THEN, 11 games into the second season, video evidence of him assaulting a female during the offseason prior to the 2018 season came out. Kansas City cut him pretty quickly, not only for the video evidence but also for his lying to the face of owner, Clark Hunt, regarding the matter. Additionally, the Chiefs informed Kareem Hunt that he would never play for the Chiefs again.
Why did I share the backstory? I think it may give us a bit of insight here into what is going to happen. The Chiefs are not resigning a player they told they would never resign to serve as a depth piece or part of a committee. Teams don’t do things like that. I “think” the Chiefs are resigning a player they told they would never resign because they see said player as a main cog in the backfield or the “chairman” of a committee. The fact that Hunt was elevated as quickly as he was makes me think he will become the “chairman.” For Week 4, Steele should see the most touches, but from that point forward, I “think” Hunt will lead the way. We should have reasonable expectations here, as this will be the 2024 Kareem Hunt, not the 2018 Kareem Hunt. His stats were down last season, though that might be in part to him playing through injury. Regardless, I think we are looking at some form of split backfield, which will offer little ceiling. We also have to factor Clyde Edwards-Helaire into the mix when he returns, though I don’t envision the Chiefs carrying four running backs, so either Samaje Perine or Edwards-Helaire may be expendable. That said, I foresee Hunt becoming the most valuable of the options and proving to be a Flex option in fantasy football for as long as Isiah Pacheco is out.
3. So… I am going to give Marc Andrews (TE Bal) and Isaiah Likely (TE Bal) one more week here. I am “hopeful” that we are going to see some production Sunday night against Buffalo. Though Baltimore will go into the game wanting to run the ball incessantly, Buffalo leads the league in scoring. Thus, Baltimore may actually find itself in a situation where it has to keep up or catch up to Buffalo. That is why I believe they will be passing, and Andrews and/or Likely should I mean why not give it another week? It is not like other tight ends are lighting up the fantasy community. I am also paying attention to Taysom Hill (TE NO). I wrote last week that as long as the Saint continued to put up points as they had, then there may not be a reason to use Taysom Hill more in fantasy point production situations. Week 03 saw the Saint’s offense come back to earth. Maybe there is an opening here for Hill. Hill missed the last game and a half of action, so your fantasy league mates may have forgotten about him. There is opportunity here. That said, as stated earlier about Andrews and Likely, if Week 04 yields little production, we may need to really temper season long expectations or try to find someone else (though given the positional performance thus far, that is going to be difficult to do).
4. Speaking of tight ends, I believe Kansas City’s matchup against the L.A. Chargers is going to be the setting for a Travis Kelce breakout game. The suggestions that Kelce is not getting open is very overblown. The issue here is that he is no longer the only main option for Patrick Mahomes in the middle of the field, as Rashee Rice has come to play an integral role in that area. Kelce is still getting open. Stay the course with Kelce.
5. I wonder if anyone is noticing that the highest over/under game in Week 04 is the Washington-Arizona matchup (49). I would feel pretty great about starting Kyler Murray, Jayden Daniels, Marvin Harrison Jr., James Conner, and Terry McLaurin. I would also feel pretty good about starting Brian Robinson Jr., and even Zach Ertz should be a decent play. Additionally, for deeper leagues, the secondary players in this game could prove useful. Sadly, Trey McBride is OUT. For those who are desperate, Elijah Higgins (TE Arizona), McBride’s backup, is not the worst play at Tight End.
6. For IDP fantasy players looking for a one-week fill in, Daiyan Henley (LB LAC), Bernard Spector (LB Buf), and Dorian Williams (LB Buf) should see solid production.
7. I wonder if Jauan Jennings’s production window is already closing, as Deebo Samuel may actually play in Week 04. With George Kittle returning already, Jennings may revert back to the 4th pass catching option. If Samuel does not play, however, Jennings could still prove to be a borderline WR2/3 play.
8. I think there will be some backfield shake-ups in the next week or two. I have already been banging the drum for Bucky Irving (RB TB), who I think takes over as the primary rusher over Rachaad White (RB TB) in Week 04 (assuming he does play—he is listed as questionable.) I also see Chicago giving Roschon Johnson (RB) a longer look over D’Andre Swift (RB) and Khalil Herbert (RB). Swift (1.8 ypc) and Herbert (2 ypc) have not been super productive, so Johnson (3.8 ypc) has a chance here. That said, there may be limited upside, as Chicago’s offense is 2nd worst in the league in rushing the ball. Additionally, Tyler Badie (RB) may see more of a run for Denver, as both Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin are averaging 2.2 ypc. Badie is averaging 8.6 ypc thus far this season.
9. I wonder how the Minnesota-Green Bay game will play out. If Jordan Love plays, which it looks like he actually will, this game will serve as a litmus test for Green Bay’s offense, as Minnesota’s defense has been excellent thus far this season, leading the league in sacks (16) and sitting at 3rd against the run. I also want to see if Sam Darnold can continue his impressive start. He should get a boost with the return of Jordan Addison (WR). The game’s over/under sits at 44.5, so the oddsmakers think there will be points put up.
10. And.. I thought my friend was going to purchase a specific car the other day. Surprisingly, he changed his mind. I asked him why. He responded, saying even though he liked the car, he felt the muffler was too exhausted.