Weekend Wonderings: Week 04

1. I wonder how many of us will tune in to the Denver-Chicago match-up.  The reality is this would be the time to fire up your Broncos, and maybe even a few of your Bears if desperate.  Both defenses have questions.  Both are ranked 31st and 32nd in yards per attempt allowed (Denver at 9 YPA allowed and Chicago 8.7 YPA allowed). Chicago is actually decent against the rush, allowing only 3.5 YPC; however, they are 20th in total rushing yards allowed. Denver is 31st in yards per carry allowed (5.6) and 31st in total rushing yards allowed.  Now, to be fair, the debacle against Miami is greatly impacting these stats for Denver.  Denver’s defense did not perform poorly in its first two games.  Thus, considering the issues with Chicago’s offense and the uncertainty if Denver’s Miami game was just an anomaly, I would not blindly start your Bears offensive options.  However, based on what we have seen so far, this would be the time to consider your Broncos options:  Russell Wilson (borderline top 10 QB for this week), Jerry Jeudy (WR3 or better), Courtland Sutton (WR3 or better), Javonte Williams (Flex or better), and possibly even Marvin Mims for the desperate. I mean, if there was a time to play a Denver offensive player, aside from the two games against the Chargers defense that is also struggling, this would it, right?   

 

2. I wonder if there is anything that can be done to save the fantasy seasons of Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall.  Zach Wilson looks like he has actually gotten worse, and the numbers actually show that he has. Now, to be fair, New York has faced three upper tier defenses in its first three weeks, but it does not get any easier in Week 04 against a good Kansas City defense—yes, they actually have a good defense this season.  I do think there will be better days in the coming weeks, but I would avoid playing Wilson or Hall in Week 04 unless I had to.

 

3. I wonder if Jahmyr Gibbs fantasy owners (myself included) have completed the stages of grief and reached acceptance.  We have to accept the reality that Gibbs is, simply put, a high-end handcuff who also functions (usually) as the 3rd down back. There is no running back-by-committee in Detroit, as that would imply at least a somewhat equal distribution of carries.  Week 04 against Green Bay showed us the reality.  David Montgomery is the starter.  He is not 1 He is number 1.  Gibbs is number 2, not 1B.  Montgomery had 32 carries.  Committee running backs do not get 32 carries.  Moving forward, unless proven otherwise, Montgomery is a borderline RB1 in fantasy.  Gibbs is not really even a flex except for deeper leagues.  We have to accept this truth, so that we can move forward and live our fantasy lives. 

 

4. In a somewhat related note, I wonder if Detroit fans wonder if the Lions would have made the playoffs last season had Dan Campbell given more carries to D’Andre Swift.  Swift is averaging a ridiculous 6.8 YPC with Philadelphia, but it is not like he was inefficient in 2022 with Detroit, averaging a robust 5.5 YPC.  Jamaal Williams averaged 4.1 YPC with Detroit in 2022.  I am not necessarily saying that more carries for Swift would have made the difference in Detroit’s playoff hopes last season, but I am not not saying that.

Moving forward, Eagles Coach Nick Sirianni would be hard pressed to stay with a committee, considering Swift’s YPC (6.8) compared to Kenny Gainwell’s (3.5).  It seems like Swift has a pretty good grip on the carries, and he is also a borderline RB1 (at the very least) moving forward until proven otherwise.  Gainwell, meanwhile, has the look of a Flex. 

 

5. I wonder know that it would be a good idea for you to go run to your waiver wire and grab Jeff Wilson Jr. if he is somehow still available. In 2022, once Miami traded for Wilson, he and Raheem Mostert virtually split the carries (84 to 80) and targets (24 to 22). Wilson was also, although slightly, the preferred option in the Red Zone (18 touches to 13 touches).  Both were efficient (Wilson 7 YPC v. Mostert 4.9 YPC).  Yes, De’Von Achane is now in the mix, and he most assuredly will be part of this seemingly three-man committee that will occur. But, if Week 03 showed us anything, it is that Miami has the capability to score.  No, they will not score 70 points every week, but we are seeing a high ceiling offense.  You definitely want players who are part of it.  In addition, Achane is 187 lbs, and Mostert has an injury history.  A three-man committee may offer some weekly flex options, but if this becomes a two-man committee due to injury/injuries, then you would be looking at RB2-RB3 options. Now, if for some reason, Miami trades for Jonathan Taylor, as those rumors do exist, all bets are off.  Still, that would be a costly trade, both financially and draft capital/player talent: I would be quite surprised if that did happen.  Simply put, go get Jeff Wilson Jr. before it is too late, as he is eligible to return for Week 05. 

 

6. In that same vein, I wonder if believe you should consider undrafted rookie, Keaton Mitchell (RB Baltimore), as a speculative add.  I have mentioned him before (See #4), and now we are closer to his return—eligible to return for Week 05.

 

7. And since we are discussing the Ravens, I wonder if I am the only one that is still waiting for Baltimore’s “new look” offense.  because so far, I have not seen it. Make no mistake, there are differences, as Lamar Jackson’s completion percentage (73.3%) is higher than any other season or his career completion percentage (64.2%).  The issue, however, is the depth of target.  His completed air yards per completion (CAY/Cmp) in 2023 is 6, which is about a full yard shorter than his career CAY/Cmp.  He is throwing shorter, which is contributing to his completion percentage increase.  What it is not contributing to, however, is his passing yards per game (202.7), which is not substantially different than the average of his previous two seasons. He is still rushing for almost exactly the same amount of yards per game in 2023 (64.3) as his career average (63.4).   

In addition, this “new look” offense is impacting the receivers.  Case in point, Zay Flowers, on 10 targets in Week 03, had 8 receptions for (double checking my notes) 48 yards.  If we take out one 52 yard completion in Week 02, Flowers is averaging right under 6.5 yards per reception.  In standard scoring, that is not ideal.  For PPR, you can live with that as long as the targets keep coming.  As for Mark Andrews, it is also affecting him.  His career yards per reception is 12.7.  Through his two games 2023, his yards per reception is 8.9.  Even worse, his receptions per game have not increased—sorry, PPR players.  Now, there is still time for the “new look” offense to show up, as we are only three games in.  I am simply wondering when, or if, it does show up.  In terms of how this ties into Week 04, you are obviously playing Andrews, and with OBJ and Rashod Bateman both ruled out, I would consider Flowers, despite the tough match-up with Cleveland.  He just has that look of a player who can make something happen. 

 

8. I wonder think it is time to admit what Kadarius Toney is: a very gifted athlete who may never stay healthy enough to be an every-down player. Make no mistake; he will continue to flash and tease us, as he has in his first two seasons.  He may even have a decent game in Week 4, but I am not sure he is someone who you can depend on for fantasy success.  Let’s face it, if he was catching passes from anyone besides Patrick Mahomes, his fantasy ownership would be next to zero at this point.  I would not blame you, if you have not done so already, if you part ways with him. And while we are discussing Chiefs wide receivers, Rashee Rice is going to be a thing this season.  I have discussed this topic before.  Your days of grabbing Rice, if he is still on your waiver wire, are numbered. 

 

9. I am 1-1 in my bold predictions so far this season—yes, I was wrong last week thinking Kendre Miller was going to have a bigger role last week ( #9). I wonder if I can break the tie in my favor:  Quentin Johnston finishes as a top 30 WR in Week 04 and will be a popular waiver add going into Week 5 if not already on a team.

 

10. And finally…, I wonder if any fantasy football owner named his/her team “Juwan Foo, Thanks for Everything! Julie Newmar Johnson?” That would probably be a more common fantasy name if Juwan Johnson saw more targets (sigh).