Weekend Wonderings: Week 03

1. I wonder if Alexander Mattison owners are nervous, since Minnesota traded for Cam Akers?  Mattison has not averaged 4 yards or more a carry in a year since 2020, with 3.7 ypc in 2021 and 3.8 ypc in 2022.  (To give a better perspective, Dalvin Cook averaged 4.7 ypc in 2021 and 4.4 ypc in 2022.)  Though a small sample size, he has not averaged over 3.5 yards per carry in either of his two games this season. That said, Cam Akers has thus far in his career proved to be an enigma.  He did average 4.2 ypc in 2022 for a Rams team that often struggled to run the ball.You can see that there is talent, but he has not demonstrated sustainable success.  In addition, the trade was not a blockbuster, as the LAR will receive a conditional 6th round draft pick and Minnesota will receive a conditional 7th.  Thus, Minnesota did not give up a lot to get him. Reports are that Cam Akers will not dress in Week 03, so Mattison is safe for now. Minnesota’s opponent, the Chargers, are middle of the pack in terms of ypc allowed. A good game would hold off any conversation about Akers, but an underwhelming performance opens that door. The reality is I think Mattison still has a gentle grasp on the starter position, but he is looking over his shoulder a bit more now. 

 

2. There are several rookie wide receivers I am paying close attention to this weekend. I wonder if we will see any production jumps of Tank Dell, Jordan Addison, Jayden Reed, and Marvin Mims. So far this season, we have the following information:

 

PLAYER

PLAYING TIME

TARGET SHARE

YARDAGE SHARE

	Week 01	Week 02	Week 01	Week 02	Week 01	Week 02
Tank Dell	48%	79%	9%	21%	10%	19%
Jordan Addison	56%	69%	13.6%	11.4%	18%	20%
Jayden Reed	53%	56%	18.5%	32%	19.6%	24.5%
Marvin Mims	27%	24%	6%	6%	5%	37%

 

I think we may be witnessing the emergence of Tank Dell. All of the data, though a small sample size, suggests as much. In addition, he had more targets (10) than Nico Collins (9) and Robert Woods (9) in Week 02. If he is on your waiver wire, he may not be after this weekend. Considering how much Houston will pass this season, given their struggles, he is going to be fantasy relevant and may prove to be a WR3 sooner than later. As for Jordan Addison, he faces more target competition in Minnesota, but so far, he has made the most with his touches, topping at least 60 receiving yards and catching a TD in each of his two games. Jayden Reed has a similar issue as Addison, as there is target competition in Green Bay, especially with a healthy Christian Watson (questionable) possibly making his season debut this week. He is someone to watch and continue to monitor, but in deeper leagues, he is a speculative add. As for Marvin Mims, Denver Coach Sean Payton did not really give fantasy owners hope for increased playing time anytime soon, but sometimes, dear reader, coaches are not always truthful. I expect Mims’s role to increase as the season progresses, and Week 03 may show us some hint of this possibility, especially considering the potential need for Denver to pass to keep up with Miami. 

 

3. Keeping with the same theme or rookie wide receivers, I wonder if Jalin Hyatt is doomed this season due to the Giants’ struggles on the offensive line. It has not helped that they have played very strong defenses in Dallas and San Francisco in 2 of their first 3 games. It is probably not a coincidence that Hyatt’s best game was not against those two defenses. I think better days will come, but it may take a few weeks.

 

4. In what has apparently become my weekly “why does Dan Campbell hate fantasy football segment,” I wonder if people are overlooking Craig Reynolds for Week 3 (and possible future weeks) while David Montgomery is injured.  Yes, Jahmyr Gibbs has the look of a fantasy football star while Montgomery is out.  BUT, so did D’Andre Swift last season.  Let us not forget that Dan Campbell would give guys like Justin Jackson more carries than Swift in 2022.  Look, I am tempering my expectations for Gibbs this week to the point that I would be excited if he just got 50% of the touches out of the backfield. My guess, however, is that Reynolds will receive 60% (or possibly even more) of the carries, with Gibbs spelling him and serving as the passing down back.  HOWEVER, there is a chance that I could be wrong—this is me continuing to be fooled by Campbell’s history; then, Gibbs could go off.  I am ranking him around RB20, factoring in what I think will actually happen (very low floor) and what I delusionally hope will happen (substantial playing time).  

 

5. I wonder if you, the reader, are picking up on the idea that I sometimes vent my fantasy frustration in this column.Feel free to reread #4 if you are not picking up on this.

 

6. I wonder if there is any Kansas City wide receiver who we can remotely count on in fantasy football? There is a narrative that since Tyreek Hill left for South Florida, the only pass catcher that matters for Kansas City is Travis Kelce. Let us not forget that JuJu Smith-Schuster, in 16 games, saw 101 targets and had 78 receptions for 933 yards and 3 TDs in 2022. Believe it or not, he led the wide receiver unit in ALL of those categories. No, those are not high-end numbers, but they are fantasy relevant. Kansas City will need a second pass catcher to emerge, as Smith-Schuster did in 2022. I “think” things will become clearer as the season progresses, and someone will. If I had to rank them moving forward, I would go Kadarius Toney, Rashee Rice, and Skyy Moore. My reasoning is Toney is probably the most talented, BUT there is a chance he will never become a full-time player. I think Rice has some potential to become a thing down as the season progresses, though his reduced playing time in Week 2 from Week 1 is concerning. Moore continues to see the most snaps, but Toney saw more targets in each of the first two weeks despite being out snapped 84 to 35 by Moore. And, Rice has seen the same number of targets as Moore despite being out snapped 84 to 32.

 

7. I wonder if I was too strong in my dismissal of Arizona’s offense going into this season. The reality is their offense has been at least somewhat competent under Joshua Dobbs as opposed to desolate wasteland I anticipated before the season began. James Conner has averaged 4.5 ypc and Zach Ertz is PPR monster at tight end. Now, I still think they will be a bottom tier offense and they may struggle mightily in Week 03 against Dallas—avoid starting anyone on Arizona’s offense this week if you can, but they will not be abysmal for the season. My apologies to you, Arizona fans.

 

8. Reflecting back on MNF’s Panthers-Saints game, I wonder what is happening with Derek Carr. What I saw was a quarterback who was rushing throws even though he had time to survey the field. He seemed to throw to his first read, even when covered. That is not the Carr I remember who played for the Raiders. I am not sure what is happening in New Orleans, but I have some concerns for the offense if this trend continues.

 

9. Speaking of the Saints, here is a bold prediction for Week 3: Kendre Miller will finish as a top 25 RB for the week. I wonder how many will play him.

 

10. And finally… to give you some context to this thought, I have become more interested in cooking these days. Thus, I wonder if I can summon all of my culinary skills and make an egg roll simply by pushing it.