By Winsto (12/16/2022)
With three games scheduled for tomorrow, I believed an injustice would occur if I did not provide some speculations beforehand. And with that in mind…
- I wonder if the Indianapolis-Minnesota game might be closer than what we expect. Matt Ryan (QB-Indianapolis) could be useful against Minnesota. Look, he is not even close to my top 10 QBs for Week 15, but Minnesota’s defense is middle of the pack against the run while dead last in passing yards allowed. Thus, Jonathan Taylor (RB) should find enough success running the ball to keep drives going, and that should provide Ryan opportunities to accumulate some fantasy points. This game is tied for the 3rd highest over/under, and Minnesota is only favored by 3.5, which is very interesting (more on that below). Vegas thinks Indy’s offense can put up some points here, and I discussed some Hail Mary plays from this game in a previous column. Ryan is no longer the Ryan of old, but against this defense, he could be serviceable if you are in a bind at QB. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins (QB-Minnesota) is facing an Indy defense that has given up the 3rd fewest passing yards this season. Here is where I go back to Vegas’s idea of Minnesota being the 3.5 favorite. We could interpret that as follows: Indy’s defense should be able to slow down Minnesota’s offense enough to allow Indy’s offense, which is not terribly good, to keep up. Thus, I wonder if we should slightly temper our expectations for non-Justin Jefferson (WR) skill position players. Given the tight end landscape, T. J. Hockenson is going to be in your line-up. Adam Theilen, in shallow to medium leagues, however, may be someone you consider benching if you have better options. As for Dalvin Cook (RB), Indy is middle of the pack against the run in total yards, BUT they are actually tied for 6th best in terms of yards per carry (4.2 ypc allowed). This may not be a blow-up game here for Cook.
- I wonder if there is anything worse in fantasy football than running-back-by-committees. Baltimore’s matchup against Cleveland, who has lost their top four linebackers for the year, is a dream for running backs. That defense is bottom ten in yards allowed, ypc allowed, and rushing TDs allowed. The problem is predicting which running back. Before Week 14, the last time J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards coexisted was in 2020. In that season, once Marc Ingram was no longer being used, they typically split the carries, including red zone carries. Dobbins “usually” got a little more work, of the two. In Week 14, guess what? They again split the carries, with Dobbins getting a bit more work. Until something changes, that is going to continue, with Kenyan Drake and Justice Hill serving as annoyances to Dobbins and Edwards owners. For me, Dobbins is the play of the pair, but the ceiling is limited. If you are in deeper leagues, Edwards is not a bad flex, given this match-up. BUT WAIT, what about the backfields of Miami and Buffalo? Haven’t they turned into committees as well? Why yes, yes they have, astute fantasy football manager. For Buffalo, Devin Singletary has lost more snaps the last two weeks to James Cook, to where they are almost playing the same amount (Week 13: 33 snaps v. 32 snaps and Week 14: 29 snaps v. 24 snaps). Miami is a bit better than average against the run, but there might be a lot of running in this game, as the weather could make it a difficult passing night for QBs. I still think Singletary is the preference of the two, but it is much closer than what it was 2-4 weeks ago. As for Miami, we may have some clarity if Jeff Wilson Jr (Questionable-hip) does not play. (I think he closer to not playing than playing). The problem there is Buffalo is a top 10 defense across the board against the rush (total yards allowed, ypc, and TDs). Still, Raheem Mostert has the speed to break one, and if it snows, sometimes players do slip, missing assignments or gaps in the process. IF Wilson Jr. does play, then I “think” I would lean toward Wilson, but it is close.
- We are going to see two quarterbacks who have struggled play on Saturday. We are, of course, referring to Tua Tagovailoa (Miami) and DeShaun Watson (Cleveland). I wonder if either or both of them can turn it around. Tua faces a Buffalo pass defense that is upper 3rd overall, but he has some wide receivers that other teams dream about (Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle). The weather may impact this game, but even short passes can be taken to endzone by this group. The bigger question is whether or not Coach Mike McDaniel (and Tua) can adjust to recent opposing defenses’ adjustments to slow down this passing attack. As for Watson, he is facing a Baltimore pass defense that is not particularly imposing. For him, the question is when (or even if) he can regain his form from 2020, as that was the last time he looked like an upper echelon QB. On the positive side, his completion percentage and yards-per-attempt improved from Week 13 to Week 14. Maybe it will continue?
- And finally… I wonder if you will read my Weekend Wonderings (Part II)-Week 15 when it becomes available tomorrow?