By Winsto (11/07/2022)
New York Jets
In New York’s victory over Buffalo, a more acclimated James Robinson accounted for 40% of the snaps and and 15 touches (totaling 53 yards and a TD reception) compared to Michael Carter’s 52% and 13 touches (totaling 86 yards and a rushing TD). Will this be the norm? New York was able to run the ball much better against Buffalo as opposed to the previous week against New England. Its offensive line is still a question, they are on a Bye in Week 10, and then they square off against New England in Week 11, so we will have to wait to see how valuable these two players will be. My guess here is that this will be a close to 50-50 split. The coaches have demonstrated that they do not see Carter as a bell-cow, but Carter is talented enough that he should take a back seat to Robinson. I do “think” New York may view Robinson as a bit more suited for short yardage situations. There is value here if New York can prove its ability to run the ball. Both are worth a flyer if either is still available on the waiver wire. Given the choice, I “slightly” lean toward Carter, but its virtually a toss up. Just temper expectations, as I do not see one or the other “running” away with the job. In addition, Ty Johnson plays just enough to cause both Carter and Robinson to take a slight hit in value.
Miami
So before the weekend, I speculated as to what Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr.’s playing times and roles would be. I thought Wilson would be the short-yardage back while Mostert would be the lead back and passing down back. So of course, in Miami’s victory over Chicago, Mostert (26 yards rushing) had a goal line TD and Wilson (51 yards rushing, 23 yards receiving) had a receiving TD. What is also of interest is Wilson outsnapped Mostert 28 to 27. This also has the looks of a full-blown committee, and there is uncertainty as to the role of each. What is also of note, based on this one game, is that Miami’s coaches looked like they viewed Mostert and Wilson as interchangeable, so there does not seem to be a clear cut role for either, in terms of passing down back or short yardage back. Based on the reality that this was Wilson’s first game, and he outsnapped Mostert (although barely), I would lean toward Wilson being the more valuable moving forward, but I say that with some hesitancy.
Kansas City
In their overtime victory over Tennessee, of course, Jerick McKinnon (9 touches for 44 yards) led this backfield in snaps with 62%, compared to Isiah Pacheco’s 22% (6 touches for 9 yards) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s 17% (5 touches for 19 yards). At this point, should we start asking ourselves if any of this matters? If this was any other offense, would we be investing and hoping for someone to emerge? Probably not. But, it is not any other offense; it’s Kansas City’s offense that leads the league in scoring TDs. Yes, we have now been saying this same thing for 3 years now, and we have not really seen anyone truly emerge during that time. I know. I know. But, still, let us look at the candidates. McKinnon is who he is, and in deeper PPR leagues, he has value. Edwards-Helaire is who he is, a TD dependent play at this point. Pacheco is still the wild card. Call me stubborn (which is probably accurate if you ask my friends), but I am still holding Pacheco as a bench stash. The upside is just too high to ignore.
Washington
In Washington’s loss to Minnesota, Antonio Gibson (13 touches for 48 yards) played 58% to 44% for Brian Robinson Jr. (15 touches for 38 yards). Keep in mind that J. D. McKissic did not play. Robinson may still be recovering from his injuries, but he is currently averaging 3.3 ypc. Gibson, however, is not exactly the model of rushing efficiency, as his in 2022 is 3.7 ypc. There is always the chance that Robinson improves as he gets further removed from his injury, but this looks like a committee that will not be going away anytime soon on an offense that has 3 rushing TDs from the running back position all season. Gibson is the most valuable, as he has the better receiving ability.
Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay
The rushing attacks for these two teams are, in two words, not good. Neither team has rushed for 600 yards on the season, and neither team averages better than 3.2 ypc. They are 31st and 32nd in rushing in the league. Leonard Fournette, as long as he gets the majority of touches, has value due to his receiving, BUT Rachaad White has become a thorn in the side of Fournette’s fantasy owners, as his playing time and touches have not gone away. If this becomes more of a committee on a team that cannot run the ball, then there is limited value. The same statement applies to Los Angeles. It does not look like either Darryl Henderson, Cam Akers, Ronnie Rivers, or even Malcolm Brown will be emerging this season. If I had to take a flier on one of them, it would be for another player who is attempting his return from the IR: Kyren Williams. Is he good? I do not know for sure, though he did show some shiftiness in college. What I do know is that there is probably a better chance that he becomes fantasy valuable compared to the other backs here.