By Winsto (12/26/2022)
Finally, Some Tight Ends Shine
In a season where there is Travis Kelce (TE-KC) and then everyone else, several of those everyone else tight ends showed some holiday spirit and spread some fantasy cheer. George Kittle (TE-SF) has been lights out since Brock Purdy (QB-SF) has taken over and Deebo Samuel (WR-SF) getting injured. After going 4-93-2 in Week 15, he actually fared better in Week 16 with his 6-120-2. In his previous three games before this tear, he went 9-76 combined! His match-up with Las Vegas, a defense that has been fairly generous to the position, is salivating.
Meanwhile, T. J. Hockenson (TE-Min) did not want to be overlooked over the holiday weekend, as he exploded for 13-109-2 on 16 targets (33% target share)! He had not topped 77 yards since joining Minnesota prior to that, and had only scored 1 TD. Week 17’s match-up, Green Bay, has been about average against the tight end position, and this game has the third highest early over/under line, with Green Bay favored by 3. If he can continue receiving that high target share, good things should happen.
And where in the Sweet Christmas was this all year, Tyler Higbee (TE-LAR)? After scoring only his first TD of the season in Week 15, he erupted for 9-94-2 against a solid Denver defense in Week 16. For those of you who were forced to start him, that was a nice holiday present. Here is something very interesting: since Baker Mayfield (QB-LAR) has taken over and actually had more than four days to prepare to play, which has been the last two weeks, Higbee’s target share is about 33%. In addition, he has seen the most targets in each of those last two games. His next opponent (LAC) is middle of the pack against the tight end this season.
And then there is the legendary performance of Brock Wright James Mitchell Shane Zylstra (TE-Det), a player who before this weekend, had 5 receptions for 27 yards and 1 TD on the season; he went for 5-26-3 against a top ten defense (Carolina) against the position. If you were somehow one of the fantasy managers who played him, I tip my cap to you. (Maybe there are fantasy leagues that only use players from the NFC North?) That was nothing short of a Christmas fantasy miracle. Chicago’s defense in next week’s match-up is upper tier against the tight end. I am not sure I would chase this performance, but his playing time has gradually increased over the course of the last five weeks. He actually played more snaps in Week 16 (44% of snaps) than any other tight end on the team. Crazier things have happened.
Looking Ahead--Be Mindful of Coach-speak
As we look toward Week 17, there are some notable players on teams who may or may not rest their players. The two teams that stand out the most are Jacksonville and Tennessee. In a quirky twist of fate, the outcomes of their Week 17 games are irrelevant to whether or not they make the playoffs. According to the New York Times playoff simulator, Jacksonville has a 5% chance of making the playoffs if they win against their Week 17 opponent (Houston) and lose against Tennessee in Week 18. Tennessee. Tennessee, meanwhile, can only make the playoffs if they beat Jacksonville in Week 18, regardless of what happens against Dallas in Week 17. Thus, the playoff fates of these two teams will be decided in a head-to-head match-up in Week 18. With that in mind, pay attention to what the coaches say this week, as this could definitely impact the playing time of several key fantasy players (Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Derrick Henry, Treylon Burks, and others.) I think of these players, Derrick Henry is the one I would be most worried about, as I could envision Coach Mike Vrabel resting him in Week 17.
In addition, the Los Angeles Chargers have clinched a play-off spot, but they cannot win the division. The best they can do is get the #5 seed, which is attainable if they win out. I would think that it would be in their best interest to try and push for that to avoid a match-up against Buffalo, Kansas City, Cincinnati, or even Baltimore–three of these teams will be playing in the the first week of the playoffs. Still, be mindful of what Coach Brandon Staley says this week.
Waiver Wire Prospects
Sometimes, me must remember that there are very different fantasy football leagues. Many of you are looking at your league’s championship match-up in Week 17, but that is not the case for all fantasy leagues. Regardless of how your league is set up, there may always be a player or two who might be able to help take you over the top this week.
- In case you are in need of a quarterback, Gardner Minshew (QB- Phi) had a solid game (355-2-2) against an solid Dallas secondary. Considering the surrounding talent he has at the skill position in Philadelphia, he is capable of duplicating that against another solid secondary in New Orleans. However, there is talk that Jalen Hurts could return, so check the news wire this week.
- Tyler Higbee (TE-LAR) As I mentioned above, a 33% target share the past two weeks is simply impossible to ignore. I think I will be ranking him as a top 10 tight end this week, and maybe even a top 8.
- Jahan Dotson (WR-Was) This may be contingent on who plays QB for Washington in Week 17. If they stick with Taylor Heinike, then I am in. He has 24 targets, 15 receptions, 235 yards, and 3 TDs over the past 3 games. (For comparison, Terry McLaurin has seen 23 targets, 18 receptions, 252 yards, and 2 TDs over that same stretch.) Week 17’s opponent is Cleveland, who is middle of the pack against the wide receiver position. If Washington decides to go to Carson Wentz, then all bets are off. Dotson could still be a major factor, but there is less certainty. It may, however, make the following player more interesting:
- Curtis Samuel (WR-Was) He has been very hit-or-miss with Heiniki this season, but 3 of his 5 receptions, and his TD, in Week 16 came from Carson Wentz, who did not enter the game until around 9 minutes left in the game. If he is available, he could be a deep league sneaky play in Week 17 against Cleveland.
- Greg Dortch (WR-Ari) Another contingent add, as he went for 10-98 on 11 targets with Trace McSorley under center. Arizona plays Atlanta, a bottom 10 defense against the wide receiver position, in Week 17. If Colt McCoy returns, however, I would probably look elsewhere.
- Justin Jackson/Craig Reynolds (RBs-Detroit) This is complicated. Jamaal Williams (RB) left Week 16’s game with a leg injury. IF Williams cannot go for Week 17, then one, if not both, of these players could be useful against a Chicago defense that is generous to the running back position. We have already seen that the Detroit coaches will not give D’Andre Swift a large, not to mention reasonable, workload, so there would be fantasy usefulness here. I “think” Reynolds, assuming he would be active, takes on more of the Williams role while Jackson continues his current role with a few more carries.