Week 15 Reaction: Chaos, of Course

By Winsto (12/19/2022)

How Does That Happen?

By now, most, if not all of us are still trying to understand how events could unfold the way they did in Week 15. 

  • Miracle in Minnesota:  This was the most ridiculous of events.  At one point early in the 3rd quarter, Indianapolis had a 99.3% probability of winning the game.  They were up 33-0 on Minnesota.  And then, everything changed, with Minnesota outscoring Indianapolis 36-3 for the rest of the game, and then winning in overtime with a field goal.  The largest comeback in the history of the league.  For those of you who started Kirk Cousins (QB), Justin Jefferson (WR), Dalvin Cook (WR), Adam Thielen (WR), and even K. J. Osborne (WR), the frustration of the first half was quickly removed by the euphoria of the scoring frenzy that took place in the second half, as all of them got in on the action.  (Sorry, T. J. Hockenson owners.  He somehow only went 3-33 during all of this.)  And if you were playing against these players, you were teased by the idea that they could all have pedestrian games, only to see that idea get crushed like an Indianapolis fan’s football-soul watching that game.
  • Tampa Bay’s Collapse:  Like the Indianapolis-Minnesota game, though not as extreme, Tampa Bay bottled up Cincinnati’s offense and went into the half with a 17-3 lead and close to an 80% probability of winning.  Cincinnati then came out and outscored Tampa Bay 31-6 in the 2nd half, with Tampa Bay scoring that last  6 scored in garbage time.  The reality is this game turned out to be lopsided.  How does that happen?  A botched fake punt and FOUR turnovers by Tampa Bay (Tom Brady threw 2 INTs and lossed 2 fumbles) contributed to this turnaround, particularly since they all occurred in Tampa Bay territory.  This simply gave Joe Burrow (QB), Jamar Chase (WR), Tee Higgins (WR), and Tyler Boyd (WR) quick scoring opportunities. (Sorry Joe Mixon owners, as he was unable to find the endzone.  He did go 11-33 on the ground and 5-31 in the receiving.)  Burrow only had 200 yards passing, but threw 4 TDs (with 1 INT).  None of the receivers had more than 60 yards, but considering that Burrow only had 86 yards passing in the first half, I think those of you who had these players felt relieved when the game was over.  And if you were playing against these guys, you were teased by the prospect that they would be held in check.
  • As for the end of the New England-Las Vegas game, I am not sure I have ever seen anything like it, given the game was tied.  If you started the Las Vegas DST, then congratulations on that gift.
  • And let us not forget Jacksonville’s upset over Dallas and Houston’s upset almost upset of Kansas City.

 

Yes, it was a crazy Week 15.

We don't always know what we think we know

  • For much of the season, many believed that at some point, Isiah Pacheco (RB) would emerge out of the backfield in Kansas City and be fantasy useful down the stretch.  That is, to some extent, what has happened.  HOWEVER, what has also happened is that Jerick McKinnon (RB) has also emerged and become even more fantasy relevant, as he has scored 5 TDs in the last 3 games.  Over that same stretch, he has posted total yards of 60, 134, and 122.  McKinnon has outsnapped Pacheco in the each of the last three games.  Pacheco during that same stretch has posted total yards of 82, 93, and 97, with 1 TD.  Look, it’s not like Pacheco is bad–he’s averaging 4.9 ypc and actually has reliable hands.  The problem is McKinnon is not going away, and he is more trusted in passing situations.  It could have easily been Pacheco who got that carry and took it to the endzone to seal Kansas City’s victory over Houston, but it wasn’t.  It was McKinnon, and it just seems like it is usually McKinnon in those situations.  As long as that continues, which I think it will, Pacheco’s ceiling is very limited while McKinnon’s is much higher.  Their remaining run defenses (Seattle, Denver, and Las Vegas) are not defenses I would shy away from.  Though Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB) is eligible to come off the IR this week, I could envision a scenario where Kansas City does not rush him back for the regular season unless something happens to Pacheco or McKinnon.
  • Some (not me) believed that D’Andre Swift (RB-Detroit), after not appearing on the injury report, would have a larger role against the New York Jets in Week 15.  To a certain extent, they were right, as he (27 snaps) outsnapped Jamaal Williams (21 snaps) and Justin Jackson (22 snaps).  Swift has 12 touches for 75 yards compared to Williams (13-33 rushing) and Jackson (31 total yards).  Do yourself a favor:  keep Swift on the bench.  There is simply no reliability there.  Could he have a game with 120 total yards and 1 TD?  Yes!  He could also have a game with 15 scoreless yards on 5 touches.  Jamaal Williams is simply a TD-or-bust play now that Jackson is also involved. There are 3 running backs in this committee.  Avoid if possible.

Looking ahead

There are a few players who may be worth a grab for Week 16, depending on how the news unfolds for the week.

  • Zach Moss (RB-Indianapolis)  Jonathan Taylor’s ankle injury may keep him off the field for the rest of this lost season for Indianapolis.  Moss and Deon Jackson were basically splitting carries (18 to 13) until Jackson lost a fumble.  Jackson did not see a carry afterwards, and Moss had the last 6 rushes.  The remaining schedule is nice (LAC, NYG, and HOU), but keep in mind that Moss’s statline against a vulnerable Minnesota run defense was not particularly impressive (24-81).  And, this may be more of a committee than what the stat-sheet suggested from Week 15.  Still, he looks like he is the next man up as of now.
  • Deon Jackson (RB-Indianapolis) I do not think he is going away, despite that critical lost fumble in Week 15.  Jackson could still get back into the equation, in part because he looks to be a better pass catcher.
  • Marquise Goodwin (WR-Seattle) Tyler Lockett has a broken finger.  Coach Pete Carroll was optimistic about Lockett returning soon, but Carroll is always optimistic regarding injuries.  If Lockett misses Week 16, Goodwin should be the next man up.  Did I mention Seattle is playing Kansas City?
  • Jordan Mason (RB-San Francisco) This is more of a just-in-case grab.  Christian McCaffrey is the guy, but Mason looks to be the next guy just in case something happens to the guy.  And Mason has shown he is capable.
  • Juwan Johnson (TE-New Orleans)  He does not get many yards, but he has now scored in 5 of his last 7 games and 7 TDs on the year.  I would be shouting this from the mountain side if not for the fact that the remaining defenses he will face (Cle, Phi, and Car) are all top 10 against the tight end and he is splitting snaps at the position.  Thus, temper expectations.