By Winsto (12/12/2022)
Oh, What Might Have Been?
- D’Andre Swift (RB-Detroit)–I think at some point we in the fantasy football community have to accept the reality that we cannot trust how D’Andre Swift will be used week in and week out. After his 111 total yard and 1 TD performance in Week 13, when he played 51% of the snaps and looked like he was back to his role to start the season, he followed it up with 9 touches for 39 scoreless yards and played 36% in Week 14. The vision of Justin Jackson (RB-Detroit), who played 29%, taking a Red Zone carry to the endzone probably still haunts all fantasy football players who started Swift. (It probably haunts Jamaal Williams owners, too.) Swift owners had already made piece with Jamaal Williams (RB-Detroit) getting (valuable) touches, but now Jackson, too? Williams played 37% and went for 16-37 on the ground, and Jackson totaled 31 yards and a score. AND, lest we forget, Craig Reynolds (RB-Detroit) is now also slated to return from the IR. Detroit scored There is no way you can trust to start Swift from here on out–he is a roll-of-the-dice flex play at best. For those of us in dynasty or keeper leagues, we also have to start asking ourselves if Swift will ever be anything more than a dynamic member of a running-back-by-committee. Yes, Williams will be a free agent after this year, but my guess is Detroit is either going to resign him or find another back to be an impediment to Swift’s upside. (Sigh)
- Tampa Bay’s Offense–Yes, this unit faced a stiff San Francisco defense, but the reality is this unit is not scoring many points week-end and week-out–it has only scored more than 2 TDs in a game ONCE this season (Week 4 against Kansas City). Tom Brady (QB) has been serviceable as of recent, averaging about 260 passing, 1.75 TDs, and 1 INT over the last 4 games, in which he threw for 2 TDs in 3 of those 4. (He only had one game with more than 1 TD pass in the previous 9 games). Although the rest of his stats are about on par with his previous two seasons, Mike Evans is simply suffering from this offense’s lack of scoring. He only has 3 TDs on the season, compared with the 13 and 14 TD seasons he has had since Brady’s arrival. Evans has also been out-targetted by fellow receiver Chris Godwin (28 v. 45) over the last 4 games. Godwin, meanwhile, seems to have taken a step forward, averaging 7.75 receptions, 74.5 yards, and 0.5 TDs over that same four game stretch (compared to Evans’s 3.75 receptions, 47 yards, and 0 TDs). Leonard Fournette (RB), since his return from injury, and Rachaad White (RB) are basically splitting snaps and workload. A committee running back in a low scoring offense is not a valuable commodity in fantasy football, though they do both catch out of the backfield, so there is more value in PPR leagues. Going into this season, the expectations centered on the fundamental premise that this offense would score, and score often. That is just not the case. The fundamental truth is that we should not be expecting any of these players, aside from maybe Godwin, to carry our fantasy football teams. Godwin seems to be capable of providing the most value, here, but as for the rest, they are more back-end starters/bench stashes. They can play a role, depending on the size of your league, but they do not look like players who are going to win your match-up.
The Ground is Shaking
- Tua Tagovailoa (QB-Miami)–Has the shine started to fade for Tua, as he has not topped 300 yards passing and is averaging 1.5 TDs and 1 INT over the last 2 games? In his defense, he has faced solid secondaries in San Francisco and the Los Angeles Chargers. BUT, his next four games are also against solid secondaries (Buffalo, Green Bay, New England, and the New York Jets). Defenses seemed to have figured out how to take away those middle crossing patterns that Tua has feasted on, so unless Coach Mike McDaniel adjusts, there could be more issues ahead. At this point, I do not think he is not an automatic start IF you have better or comparable options.
- Saquon Barkley (RB-New York Giants)–New York’s offense has taken a step back in the last four weeks, as Barkley has not topped 81 total yards in any of those games. In three of them, he did not even top 52 total yards. Thus, he has become way more TD dependent, scoring in two of those four. To make matters a bit worse, he popped up on the injury report with a neck issue going into Week 14. I “think” part of the issue here centers around the offensive line injuries suffered in recent weeks. If the line, and his neck, can get healthier, he may find some more consistent success. I am still rolling him out there if I have him, but his floor is a little lower now than earlier in the year.
- Gabe Davis (WR-Buffallo)–I give him a pass in Week 14 (3-31), as the New York Jets defense is top notch and held his teammate, Stefon Diggs, to 37 yards on 3 receptions. Still, the boom-or-bust life continues with Davis, but without any boom over the last 4 weeks, with only 1 TD and no more than 68 yards in a game. As discussed before, the floor for him is lower than earlier in the season.
Looking Ahead
- In all of the excitement over the increased workload of Jameson Williams (WR-Det), some (including myself) may not have paid more attention to a Detroit wide receiver who was already getting a heavy workload–D. J. Chark! That is now 2 games in a row that he has topped 90 yards receiving. His remaining schedule is not ideal (New York Jets, Carolina, Chicago, and Green Bay) is not ideal for wide receivers, but Detroit’s offense is putting up points, as they have scored 3 or more TDs in each of their last 5 games. Even as Williams’s workload increases, I think Chark remains safe.
- Jeff Driskel (QB,TE-Houston) Okay, we may have another Taysom Hill situation here (sort of), as Driskel played 50% of the offensive snaps for Houston in Week 14 against Dallas. He threw for 38 yards and a TD while rushing for 36 yards on 7 carries. That was against Dallas. Houston’s offense now faces the following defenses: Kansas City, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis. There are some favorable match-ups there–I am looking at you, Kansas City defense. HOWEVER, we are not sure if this will be a trend or if it was specific just to Dallas. Remember, Taysom Hill had an AMAZING Week 5 (4 total TDs, but has not really done much since (2 receiving TDs total). If you are in a league that has him TE eligible, he may be worth a grab just to see how this plays out. Just know that there is no guarantee of any playing time. He was actually on the practice squad before the game, so he could potentially not even be active next week. UPDATE: Driskel has been sent back down to the practice squad. He has already been called up a few times this season. If he is called up again, he has to remain on the team roster. So… we will see how this goes, as there are no guarantees he will even be called up again?
- San Francisco Skill Position Players–With the news that Deebo Samuel (WR) will probably miss the rest of the regular season games, Christian McCaffrey (RB) Brandon Aiyuk (WR), and George Kittle (TE) should see an uptick in opportunities. You were already starting McCaffrey and Kittle, but consider Aiyuk as well. And for deeper leagues, Jauan Jennings (WR) and Ray-Ray McCloud III (WR) may be of interest moving forward. I have previously mentioned stashing Jordan Mason (RB) if I were a McCaffrey owner, but I could envision the coaches putting in more packages with him and McCaffrey on the field together.