By Winsto (12/05/2022)
Two quarterbacks went down in Week 13, one for the season and another for at least some time. The question is what should we expect from each of those two offenses.
Tyler Huntley to the Rescue?
In Baltimore’s victory over Denver (10 – 9), Lamar Jackson left the game early with a knee injury. Reports thus far is he is considered “week-to-week,” but he will probably miss Week 14’s match-up against Pittsburgh at the very least. Thus, Tyler Huntley (QB) is up. How will this affect the skill position players?
Can Tyler Huntley serve as a viable replacement? In the 5 games he started played the vast majority (Weeks 11, 14, 15, 17, and 18), he averaged 208 passing yards, 0.6 passing TDs, 0.8 INTs, 53 rushing yards, 0.4 rushing TDs, and 0.6 fumbles lost. Now, the caveat here is Baltimore’s receiving corps this year is not last year’s corps. But, against Denver’s stingy defense, he threw for 187 scoreless yards and 1 INT while rushing for 41 yards and 1 TD. If your current back-up produces less, then consider Huntley for the short term, as Baltimore’s next three opponents are Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Atlanta. These defenses are nothing to shy away from.
As for Mark Andrews (TE), we can look at those same games Huntley started in 2021. Andrews averaged 11 targets, 8.6 receptions, 99.6 yards, and 0.6 TDs. He did not have a single game under 73 yards receiving during that stretch–incidentally, that was a game that Marquise Brown missed. Thus, Andrews should still be okay, as yesterday Huntley threw his direction 6 times, and Andrews hauled in 4 for 53 yards in against Denver yesterday. The reality is that unless you somehow have Travis Kelce (TE-KC) on your team as well, Andrews remains a must-start.
Regarding the rest of the pass-catchers (Demarcus Robinson, Devin Duvernay, and DeSean Jackson) in this offense, I would definitely think there is a slight downgrade, but it may not be as bad as we think. As I have stated, Huntley averaged 208 passing yards and 0.6 TD passes in those 5 games in 2021, and he threw for 187 scoreless yards yesterday against a top-tier defense. Lamar Jackson was averaging about 185 passing yards and 1.5 TD passes per full game this season. What we should envision here is the receiving yards may be close to the same, but there will probably be less chances at TD receptions.
But what about the running back group? Will defenses stack the line (even more now)? Again, we can look at Huntley’s 5 games in 2021 to try and predict how this will play out. Baltimore’s running backs in 2021 (primarily Devonta Freeman and Latavius Murray) collectively averaged 18.2 carries, 100 rushing yards, 0.6 rushing TDs, 3.6 receptions, and 10.4 receiving yards. That’s not bad, especially considering Freeman is currently an unsigned free agent. The low receptions and receiving yards are noticeable, though. However, Baltimore’s pass catching backs (Kenyan Drake and Justice Hill) combined are averaging 10.8 receiving yards per game this season, so there is not much difference there as well. Thus, we may not be seeing much of a drop-off here. The bigger question is how will the return of J.K. Dobbins impact this backfield as opposed to Tyler Huntley starting at quarterback. Will we return the late season 2-headed monster of 2020 with Dobbins and Gus Edwards? Will it became a 3 headed monster with those two and Kenyan Drake? Could Dobbins prove himself healthy and take control? I really wish I knew the answer. I want to believe a healthy Dobbins takes lead, as this offense is desperate for play-makers. A healthy Dobbins is a play-maker. But, that may be wishful thinking.
In summary, I think I would plan to play the skill position players as I have been playing them in fantasy, but with a slight drop-off in potential TD production from the wide receiver group.
Brock Purdy not so Irrelevant Anymore!
In a Pyrrhic victory against Miami, Jimmy Garoppolo (QB) suffered a broken ankle and will miss the remainder of the season. Enter Brock Purdy, “Mr. Irrelevant” from the 2022 draft. He played okay, throwing for 210 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. I think we need to see more before I suggest him as a potential replacement in fantasy football, unless you are in a 2 QB league. The question, again, is how will this impact the relevant fantasy football players on this offense. The initial reaction would be to consider all players taking a slight hit in their value. However, may be it is not that simple? Kyle Shanahan has a solid system, whose success is based as much on the system itself as it is on talent.
Case in point, in 2020, Jimmy G. missed much of the season due to injuries, and Nick Mullens and C. J. Beathard had to fill in at quarterback. If Brock Purdy can prove himself to be in the same vicinity of talent as Mullens and Beathard, which is not far-fetched, this may be a legitimate comparison. Here is how the skill position players fared during those games:
Deebo Samuel (WR)–He was also hurt for much of that season, and only played two full games without Garoppolo (Weeks 12 and 13). He averaged 11 targets, 8.5 receptions, and 103 receiving yards.
George Kittle (TE)–In the three games he played without Jimmy G. (Week 4, 16, and 17), he averaged 9.6 targets, 8.7 receptions, 114 receiving yards, and 0.3 TDs.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR)–-In his rookie year, he averaged 9.6 targets, 5.6 receptions, 66 receiving yards, 0.4 TD receptions, 11 rushing yards, and about 0.3 rushing TDs during those games Garoppolo missed.
Now I must state that during 2020, Samuel and Kittle were often injured and never played in the same game without Garoppolo, so part of the reason for their solid numbers is that they were not competing for touches. And, we are talking about two seasons ago here. Still, the offensive system of San Francisco in 2022 is still basically the same as it was in 2020, with the same offensive-minded head coach.
If we only decide to look at Sunday’s victory over Miami, Purdy targeted Samuel 10 times (6-58), Aiyuk 7 times (4-23), and Kittle 2 times (2-22). Thus, Aiyuk and Kittle may take a slight hit in value, but it may not be as bad as may think. I do think Deebo will actually be okay–see the 10 targets.
The reality is that Shanahan has demonstrated in the past that he is not scared to find creative ways to get the ball into the hands of his play-makers, as he did in 2021 with Deebo. The fact that Purdy, a rookie, is not leading this offense suggests to me that Shanahan will amp this concept up. I can envision more Samuel and McCaffrey backfields, some wild-cat formations, a possible Deebo led read-option to McCaffrey, or vice-versa. Okay, I am probably getting crazy, but am I? Could you not envision that as well?
Then, of course, there is the question about Christian McCaffrey? I think he will be just fine–he has spent much of his career playing with less than elite quarterbacks and has thrived–remember the 2019 Carolina team led by Kyle Allen? After Jimmy G. was injured, all McCaffrey did was go for 62 rushing yards, 47 receiving yards, and a TD reception. I think he will be fine. (On a side note, Jordan Mason had 8 carries for 51 yards. No other running back touched the ball. I think, at this stage of the fantasy season, I am shoring up my team, and if I am a McCaffrey owner, Mason sure looks like a solid hand-cuff.)
In Summary
In both situations discussed above, I do not think the injuries to Jackson and Garoppolo should cause a “sky is falling” reaction. Stay the course. Play the players as you normally would, with slightly less expectations for Aiyuk, Kittle, D. Robinson, Duvernay, and D. Jackson.