Week 12 Reaction: Backfields in Flux

By Winsto (11/28/2022–updated 11/29/2022)

Introduction

Every week in fantasy football can bring about unforeseen events and changes.  Four backfields in Week 12 was no exception to this, as several players emerged and have now become more fantasy relevant.  The question moving forward is what to do with this new information and how should we respond.

New York Jets

When news broke that James Robinson would be healthy inactive, Michael Carter “seemed” to be in line for a big day.  However, as I have previously discussed, the coaching staff has simply never viewed Carter as an every down back.  Zonovan “Bam” Knight is an undrafted rookie who was on the practice squad until Breece Hall’s injury, and he had not been active on game day this season before Week 12.  So of course, he was not only activated, he also apparently leap-frogged Robinson.  In addition, Knight was part of the game-plan, as he and Carter split touches (5 to 8 respectively) before Carter left the game in the 2nd half with an ankle injury.  Afterwards, New York leaned on Knight, as he finished with 14 carries for 69 yards and 3 receptions for 34 yards. 

The early reports is Carter suffered a low ankle sprain, so he may not miss much, if any, time.  Still, if he does, Knight “should” at the very least, be the lead back in a committee with Ty Johnson (RB), who had 6 touches for 78 total yards and a rushing score, and possibly Robinson.  But consider the following points:

  1. Ty Johnson has never had more than 12 rushes under Head Coach Robert Saleh (Week 2 of 2021), and he has not topped 6 rushes since.
  2. James Robinson was a healthy scratch, so it seems like Knight has surpassed him.
  3. Once Carter went down, Knight had 10 rushes compared to 5 for Johnson.


I would also add to this the following possibility.  Even if Carter returns, who is to say that Knight cannot be the main back here?  We have already seen that Saleh does not view Carter or Johnson as a feature back.  We have also seen that Knight “appears” to have surpassed Robinson.  We have not, however, seen the coaching staff rule out Knight as a feature back.

Thus, if you have room for a speculative add, I present to you Zonovan “Bam” Knight, as next week’s opposing defense, Minnesota, is not a defense to shy away from.  And, he could be quite relevant down the fantasy stretch.

San Francisco

So the news is that Elijah Mitchell will miss the next 6-8 weeks, thus effectively ending his fantasy season.  The question now is who is the next man up?  This question is even more important, as reports are that Christian McCaffrey experienced knee irritation in Week 12 and missed a portion of the game.  He was able to return, however.  Still, we never know if this could lead to missed time or a lighter carry load down the stretch.

So, who are the candidates to replace Mitchell and basically serve as a hand-cuff to McCaffrey?  Well, there are three possibilities:

  1. Jordan Mason (undrafted rookie)
  2. Tyrion Davis-Price (rookie 3rd round pick)
  3. Tevin Coleman (veteran of the system)

 

Both Davis-Price (16 rushes for 37 yards) and Coleman (12 rushed for 26 yards and 1 TD/3 catches for 44 yards and 1 TD) have seen playing time this season.  Neither have touched the ball since Week 7.  Jordan Mason has 10 rushes for 46 yards on the season, but 9 of the 10 attempts have come in the last two weeks.  Davis-Price is a rookie 3rd round pick while Coleman is the veteran who knows the system.  BUT, I present to you the following points:

  1. Mason has been used more recently than the other two, even though both Davis-Price and Coleman were used earlier in the season.  Thus, there is momentum here for Mason.
  2. Coleman is actually on the practice squad, not the active roster.
  3. Kyle Shanahan has demonstrated he cares not for draft pedigree, as demonstrated by his preference of Elijah Mitchell over Trey Sermon in 2021.  So Davis-Price being a 3rd round draft pick means very little at this point.
  4. Mason’s ypc is 4.6 compared Davis-Price’s 2.3 ypc and Coleman’s 2.2 ypc.
  5. Shanahan was so concerned that he could not cut Mason and sneak him onto the practice squad at the beginning of the year, that he was kept on the active roster over players like 2021 3rd round pick Trey Sermon and veteran JaMycal Hasty (see below).  Meanwhile, Tevin Coleman (after being cut by the New York Jets) had been signed to the practice squad, elevated, waived, and signed to practice squad again.

 

From what I can ascertain, Jordan Mason is the back I am looking at here, especially if I have Christian McCaffrey on my team.  HOWEVER, we are talking about Kyle Shanahan, so anything is possible here.

Jacksonville

This whole section “may” be a somewhat moot point, as early reports are that Travis Etienne, who injured his foot in Week 12, was cleared to return to the game.  Thus, it “looks” like everything is fine.  BUT, I have seen these “everything’s fine” reports before, and I have seen them change to “the sky is falling” reports.  The reality is Etienne was cleared to return, BUT he did not return.  Coach Doug Pederson could have just been playing it safe his star running back.  But just in case…, let’s take a quick look at the other backs:

  1. JaMycal Hasty–I will be honest: I have been keeping a close eye on him the last few years.  Any running back on San Francisco’s roster the last several years has to be monitored.  I think there is some talent there.  He definitely played the lion’s share of snaps once Etienne left the game.  Etienne played 5 snaps; Hasty played 49 (78%).  His rushing was nothing to write home about, going 12 for 28 yards (2.3 ypc), but he also caught 5 passes for 67 yards and a TD.  His career ypc is a respectable 4.2, and in 2022, it’s actually better (4.8).  And heading into Week 12, he has also out-snapped the following candidate 43 to 2 since Jacksonville traded away James Robinson.
  2. Snoop Conner–The 2022 5th round draft pick has seen very little playing time (2 snaps) before Week 12.  But, his playing time increased after Etienne left the game: he played 10 snaps (16%) and carried the ball 3 times for 11 yards, which were his first touches on the season.  He seems like he is a long shot here to become fantasy relevant.  That said, Jacksonville did trade up in the 5th round to acquire him, so…there is always a chance.
  3. Darrell Henderson-This is the wildcard.  Waived by the running back needy Los Angeles Rams, Coach Pederson claimed him and praised his running style.  He has a career 4.4 ypc average, and actually mustered a 4.0 ypc average behind a, how shall I say, not-so-good Los Angeles offensive line.  The biggest obstacle for Henderson is that he has only been on the team for 6 days. 

 

Again, this situation is complicated.  Etienne may be just fine, but just in case, if I had to pick one, I would lean toward Hasty over Henderson.

Pittsburgh

Najee Harris is injured, and I am not talking about just from Week 12.  His foot has bothered him; you can just tell.  Now he is dealing with an abdominal injury he suffered in Week 12.  My guess is that he may miss some time, but there has been no updates so far.  So, who is the next man up?

  1. Jaylen Warren–This would be such an easy section to write if not for the fact that he is also injured with a hamstring makes my job much more difficult.  When he returns from his injury, he is the guy, as neither of the following two backs have played a single offensive snap until Warren went down in Week 11.
  2. Benny Snell–He filled in nicely in Week 12, accounting for 41% of the offensive snaps and rushing for 62 yards and a TD on 12 attempts.  He even caught a 6 yard pass.  Snell has served as solid back-up during his career in Pittsburgh. 
  3. Anthony McFarland Jr.-He had a solid game, playing 31%, rushing for 30 yards on 6 carries, and catching 2 passes for 11 yards.

 

Again, Warren is the guy if he is healthy and Harris is out.  If both Harris and Warren are out, I could envision a 60/40 split between Snell and McFarland, with Snell being the preferred option.

Final Thoughts

If you are debating who to go after in your waiver claims, based on the current information and assuming Carter and Harris, at the very least, may miss some time, I “think” I would rank them as follows:  Warren, Knight, Mason, and Hasty.