Week 11 Reaction: Fantasy Football is Unpredictable

By Winsto (11/21/2022)

Unpredictability

Look, no matter how hard fantasy football “experts” try to provide the best advice they can, at the end of the day, what actually transpires on the field can simply be unpredictable.  How else do you explain how the following:

  • Saquon Barkley (RB-NYG)–This was suppose to be a solid game for him, going up against Detroit’s defense that, even after that game, is allowing 4.7 ypc and had given up 15 rushing TDs (3rd worse in the league).  His 15 carries for 22 yards, and 2 receptions for 13 yards, was not suppose to happen.  BUT, it did.  It is not like Detroit came up with this novel idea of stopping Barkley–every team prior had the same idea.  It did not help that New York lost two offensive lineman during the game.  Barkley is still elite, but the injuries to the offensive line and now the loss of Wan’Dale Robinson (WR) is going to make life a little more difficult.  Who knows, though?  Maybe Odell Beckham Jr. (WR-Free Agent) decides to return back to where is all started for him, professionally.  That would help.
  • Kenyan Drake (RB-Baltimore)–As with Barkley, this was suppose to be a nice game for him as well, outfitted with one of the better rushing attacks, starting with no Gus Edwards (RB) in the mix, and going up against a Carolina defense allowing 4.5 ypc and 10 TDs on the year.  And yet, 10 carries for 46 yards rushing and 2 receptions for 7 yards receiving.  The stars were supposed to be aligned for a nice repeat performance, given how well he did against a stouter New Orleans defense in his previous game.  The stars did not cooperate.
  • Josh Allen (QB-Buffalo)–The Browns defense is a middle of the pack passing defense, and this is Allen.  Yet, he threw for under 200 yards with only 1 TD.  Jacoby Brissett (QB-Cleveland), meanwhile, threw for 324 yards and 3 TDs.  I am pretty sure very few had Brissett ranked higher than Allen going into this weekend.
  • Joe Mixon (RB-Cincinnati)–He was outscored by his back-up Samaje Perine (RB-Cincinnati) against Pittsburgh.  Perine had 82 total yards, 3 TDs compared to Mixon’s 62 total yards, 0 TDs.  Yes, Mixon left with an injury, but that is part of the unpredictability.

 

What am I trying to say?  All we can do in fantasy football is set our starting rosters based on the best available information we have.  We cannot predict the future.  Thus, if you started one of the aforementioned players, you cannot kick yourself for “making the wrong choice.”  Instead, you just try to accept the unpredictable nature of fantasy football, and just try to move forward.  And with that in mind….

Looking Ahead

If you, like me, are trying to find that player who can help spark your roster down the stretch, here are a few players I think you should take a look at:

  1. J. K. Dobbins (RB-Baltimore) and/or Gus Edwards (RB-Baltimore)–There is a good chance that these players are not on your waiver wire, BUT there is also a chance that they are.  I think both will be factors down the stretch, as I do not think Drake (see above) is the preferred option in this offense.  John Harbaugh may be conservative with Dobbins and Edwards upon their return, but I think they will return soon and matter.  Let us not forget that Dobbins averaged 6.0 ypc in 2020.  Edwards, meanwhile, is no slouch, as he averaged 5.0 ypc in 2020 and has averaged 4.9 ypc in 2022.  I “think” Dobbins has the higher ceiling while Edwards has the safer floor.
  2. Josh Palmer (WR-Los Angeles Chargers)–He may have been dropped in your league once the news or the returns of Keenan Allen (WR) and Mike Williams (WR) broke.  Well, Williams re-injures his ankle and Palmer goes for 10-106-2 TDs.  Palmer has been up and down during the absence of Allen and Williams.  It seems, however, that Palmer is more of a replacement for Williams as opposed to Allen, which he sort of had to be during the absence of both.  I “think” he may flourish with Allen for as long as Williams misses time.
  3. Jameson Williams (WR-Detroit)–He has officially been designated to return today and don’t look now, but Detroit is actually in the play-off hunt.  He is, buy all accounts, very fast.  Detroit used the 12th overall pick in the draft on him (ahead of healthy receivers like Jahan Dotson, Treylon Burks, and Christian Watson to name a few), despite him coming off an ACL injury he suffered in the college championship game.
  4. Odell Beckham Jr. (WR-Free Agent)–This is really going to depend on who signs him.  If he signs with a more run-oriented team with other receiving options, then there is a limited ceiling.  If he signs with a team desperate at the wide receiver position but has a capable quarterback, then he could flourish.  There are a wide array of outcomes.  Just remember, OBJ is good at football–he averaged 72 yards receiving and 0.5 TDs in the four play-off games last season with the Los Angeles Rams, and that is despite missing the second half of the Superbowl with the ACL tear.
  5. Darius Slayton (WR-NYG)–Look, there is pretty much no one else for Daniel Jones to throw the ball to.  Slayton has 191 yards on 14 targets in the last 2 games, and now that Wan’Dale Robinson is out for the season (ACL), those targets are only going to increase.
  6. Juwan Johnson (TE-New Orleans)–Over his past five games, Johnson has 22 targets, 17 receptions, 179 receiving yards, and 5 TDs.  If you have been stuck in tight end purgatory, those numbers look pretty enticing.
  7. Latavius Murray (RB-Denver)–Okay, I am not going to sugarcoat this.  Murray has not been terribly efficient running the ball–3.3 ypc since joining Denver.  He also has only averaged 10 yards per game receiving.  Denver, as a team, has a putrid 3.9 ypc.  Soooo… why am I putting him here?  I am glad you asked, kind reader.  He seems to be the only one left standing in Denver, as Chase Edmonds is hurt and Melvin Gordon III has been waived.  His only competition at this point is recently signed Marlon Mack.  Yes, the offense he is on has yet to score 24 or more points in a game this season.  Yes, the offense he is on has seemed absurdly ineffective.  Still, he is a starting running back facing little competition for touches.  There is value there.  He may not carry your team to a championship, but he may be able to serve as an occasional flex starter.
  8. Trey McBride (TE-Arizona)–We will find out more tonight about the 1st tight end taken in the 2022 draft, but what I do know is that a 4.56 40 yard dash time and a 1.60 10 yard dash time for a tight end are not too shabby.  He may just be a “wait and see how he does” before you try to grab him, but if you are in a league that allows you to pick him up before the game and currently have a bench spot, it might not be a horrible idea to grab him just in case.
  9. Melvin Gordon III (RB-Free Agent)–The odds of him factoring into fantasy relevance at this point is small, as he has averaged only 3.5 ypc and has had fumble issues.  BUT, if he is picked up by the right offense, he could still matter.  Again, the theme here is unpredictability.  If we accept that fantasy football is unpredictable, then we should be willing to accept that Gordon may matter down the stretch.