By Winsto (11/25/2022)
I hope all of you had a pleasant holiday, and it was as joyous as being a Justin Jefferson (WR-Minnesota) and Dalton Schultz (TE-Dallas) fantasy owner. So, without further ado….
As mentioned in the introduction, Jefferson and Schultz had nice Thanksgivings. You already know Jefferson is elite. What is interesting here is that Schultz may be inching closer to my circle of trust. He has had a rough stretch earlier this year, with Dak Prescott (QB-Dallas) getting hurt and his own injuries as well. Is he starting to settle into the role he played last year? He has seen no less than 4 targets in his last 5 games, and is averaging 46 yards receiving during that stretch. That is about on par with his 2021 season (47.5 ypg).
Sticking with tight ends, I think we are seeing a clearer picture regarding T. J. Hockenson (TE-Minnesota) 4 games into his new team. He has averaged 48 receiving yards per game. (Ironically, his most receiving yards came in his first game with Minnesota.) This “should” be about what to expect moving forward, though if we remove the “novelty” game, or 1st game with new team, he is averaging 40.7 yards per game, though admittedly, that is based only on 3 games.
Another point of interest centers on Rhamondre Stevenson (RB-New England). The amount of touches he receives on a weekly basis is the ingredient to fantasy success, especially with Damien Harris (RB) once again getting nicked up. Stevenson is averaging 7.6 targets per game over his last 5 games on top of averaging 12.8 rushes per game during the same stretch. And with the reality that the remaining rush defenses on the schedule do not instill fear, I would be very hesitant to remove him from my starting line-up.
I have slight concern regarding Buffalo’s passing offense. Josh Allen (QB-Buffalo) has seen his numbers decline since his elbow injury against the New York Jets in Week 9: his passing yards per game dropping from 300.4 ypg to 260 ypg, his yards per attempt dropping from 8.1 ypa to 7.0 ypa, and his passing TD rate has dropped from 2.4 TDs per game to 1.3 TDs per game. These declines have impacted his wide receivers. Stefon Diggs has seen a drop during this same stretch, going from 107 yards per game to 84 yards per game. His yards per reception has also dropped from 14.3 ypr to 10.5 ypr. Gabe Davis, meanwhile, has seen his yards per game actually increase (64 ypg to 66 ypg), BUT there is more to this story. Davis’s yard per reception has plummeted (25.1 ypr to 13.3 ypr). And these stats are factoring in the two games Davis played with an injured ankle (Weeks 3 and 4). Thus, Davis is seeing more targets per game, but they are on shorter routes. What can we take away from all of this? I think the passing game options in this offense moving forward will continue to take a slight hit due to the elbow injury from Allen. I also think defenses are playing more two deep safeties, daring Buffalo to run more. (Incidentally, Buffalo has run more, including Josh Allen, whose rushing numbers have actually increased during this same stretch.) Obviously, Allen and Diggs are virtual line-up locks. Davis may actually now have a steadier floor, but a more limited ceiling moving forward.
As for the New York Giants, they simply need to get healthy on the offensive line. I stated to trust the talent and keep Saquon Barkley (RB-NYG) in your line-ups. I am not going to lie: that was not pretty (11-39-1 TD on ground and 4-13 in the air). BUT, he found the endzone and salvaged the day. Hopefully, the extra time before Week 13 will help the line heal up. And, unless there is some sort of free agent signing, Darius Slayton (WR) should continue to be the best fantasy option in that receiving room.