TNF Reaction: Buffalo’s Transition and Sunday Hail Marys

In Buffalo’s victory over New England last night, a noticeable trend continued.  I have discussed before how Buffalo has become more balanced offensively and less pass happy since Josh Allen’s elbow injury in Week 9 against the New York Jets.  The data suggests, however, that this transition seems to have occurred after their Bye Week (Week 7).  In the previous 6 games, Buffalo never surpassed 125 yards rushing and averaged about 118 yards per game.  During that same stretch, Josh Allen threw for 292 yards or more in 5 of those 6 games and averaged 323 yards per game.  Since then, however, he has averaged 226 yards passing per game and has only topped 237 yards in a game once (311 in Week 10).  That is a drop of almost 100 passing yards a game!  In addition, Allen threw 17 TD passes in Weeks 1-6; in Weeks 8-13, Allen has only thrown for 8 TDS.  However, Allen’s rushing numbers improved though the attempts were about the same (Weeks 1-6: 47-257-2 compared to Weeks 8-13: 42-324-3).  As for the other players who run the ball, they accounted for 450 yards rushing in Weeks 1-6 but increased that amount to 605 yards in Weeks 8-13.  Both Devin Singletary and James Cook have both benefited from this transition in terms of their rushing, as their yards per game rushing has increased since the Bye week–in fact, all of Singletary’s rushing TDs (3) have come since then.  HOWEVER, in terms of total yards, it has been about a wash.  Still, I do not think it is just coincidence that all of Singletary’s rushing TDs have come since the Bye week.

So, what does this all mean?  The two main pass catchers in Buffalo’s offense have suffered due to the transition and decline in touchdowns through the air. 

• Stefon Diggs, in Weeks 1-6, went for 49-656-6 on 65 targets.  But, in Weeks 8-13, he went for 42-546-4 on 63 targets.  He was averaging 109 receiving yards the first 6 games, but that has dropped to 91 yards per game the last 6 games.
• Gabe Davis, in Weeks 1-6 (missed Week 2), went for 14-383-4 on 26 targets in 5 games.  (AND KEEP IN MIND that Davis was bothered by the injured ankle in Weeks 3 and 4.) But, in Weeks 8-13, he has gone for 21-282-2 on 41 targets in 6 games.  His yards per game average dropped from 76.6 to 47.  In addition, Davis had 74 yards or more in 3 of the 5 games before the Bye week.  He has only topped that number once (Week 10–93 yards) in last 6 games. 

Look, even with the dip in production, Diggs is still a WR1 and you are going to continue to roll him out there.  He still gets the looks from Allen.  But when an offense is only passing 226 yards per game, it is difficult for that offense to support multiple pass-catchers for consistent fantasy production. 

Thus, we may have to re-access Davis.  Considering that Buffalo is winning most of these games, I do not envision a shift back to a more pass oriented offense at this point.  And who knows?  Maybe Allen’s elbow injury is playing a part in this transition.  His accuracy on deep balls, which is Davis’s game, may be impacted by that elbow.  Still, it does appear the transition was already in place.  The bottom line is this:  Davis averaging 47 yards per game is nothing spectacular.  The concept that Davis is a boom-or-bust receiver with a high ceiling and low floor each week was (somewhat) valid before the Bye week.  Now, that ceiling no longer looks vaulted, and that floor now looks like the basement.  Davis will always be a TD scoring threat, but the dreams (including my dreams) of him finishing as a WR2 or better are dissipating before our eyes.  (Sigh) Four of his remaining five opponents (New York Jets, Chicago, Cincinnati, New England) are not great match-ups for wide receivers, so do not feel compelled to keep starting him if you have safer options.  Could he still explode in any give week?  Absolutely!  It just seems that the odds of that happening have decreased compared to the first half of the season.