By Winsto (09/07/2023)
GENERAL THOUGHTS
In Week 01’s TNF Match-up, we will be watching the Superbowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs host the Detroit Lions. This game “should” have a considerable amount of scoring, as Las Vegas has the over/under at 52.5–the highest over/under of any game in Week 01. In other words, if you have players in this game, you will want to play them.
You are obviously playing Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce (if he suits up after his injury scare), and Amon-Ra St. Brown. You are probably playing Jahmyr Gibbs and Isiah Pacheco. And then, it starts getting interesting. If you are debating between a player in this game and another one, you will want to consider the player in this game due to the over/under.
Jared Goff is going to be a solid play, as Kansas City’s pass rush will not be nearly as effective without Chris Jones–don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. I have Goff ranked 11. There is uncertainty with David Montgomery, as we cannot really expect a 2023 version of 2022 Jamaal Williams, but he has a pretty good chance of scoring a TD here. I have him ranked 32, which may be too low, as his floor might be higher with Chris Jones not in the line-up for Kansas City.
And then, there is Kadarius Toney. Oh, the possibilities and potential! Oh, the very scary low floor! He has been removed from the injury report and is now expected to play. My guess is he will be on a bit of a snap count, but a Week 01 Top 20 finish would not be shocking. To delve more deeply on this topic, I have some thoughts….
THINGS I AM WATCHING
The Kansas City Receiver Quagmire:
Let’s look at the data. Patrick Mahomes, since becoming the starting QB for Kansas City, has averaged just north of 300 passing yards/game (308 in 2022). His lowest average for a year was 284.6 (2021) and highest average for a year was 316 (2020). That is fairly consistent. If we do the math, we should reasonably expect around 5,000 yards passing for 2023. If all goes according to plan, Travis Kelce, and the rest of the tight end unit, would presumably take about 1,400 of those yards. This is based on the last two seasons. Also based on the last two seasons, the running back room will take about 800. Thus, we are left with about 2,800 yards for the receivers. We have several candidates competing for those yards.
SIDENOTE–The Andy Reid Rookie Receiver Narrative:
Before we dive in, there is this narrative of wide receivers in their rookie year struggling in Andy Reid’s offense. The idea is that rookies take time to adjust and develop in Reid’s offense due to its complexity and having to learn all of the receiver positions. But, how accurate is that, really? Yes, Tyreek Hill had less than 600 yards receiving in his rookie year, but that was with a Kansas City passing attack that threw for less than 4,000 yards, of which only about 2060 yards went to receivers. That means Hill, in his rookie year, accounted for about 30% of the receiving room’s yardage total. Mecole Hardman had 538 receiving yards his rookie season behind Hill and Sammy Watkins. The jury is still out on Hardman, though Kansas City seemed ready to move on from him this offseason. In 2008 and 2009, when Reid was Head Coach of Philadelphia, the Eagles drafted Desean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, respectively. Jackson finished his rookie campaign with 912 receiving yards, and Maclin finished his with 773. Both proved to be solid receivers, as Jackson went on to have five 1,000 yard seasons receiving and Maclin with two 1,000 yard seasons receiving. The point here is that maybe that narrative isn’t completely accurate. I bring this up because it impacts our beliefs regarding Skyy Moore and Rashee Rice, which I will discuss in a bit. But first, let’s look at the returning veterans.
Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Justin Watson: Look, they are solid receivers who have a specific skill set, and that is they go deep and help take the cover off of the defense. MVS has never averaged 50 receiving yards/game in a season, and that has been with Aaron Rodgers and now Patrick Mahomes. He has also never shown to be a major TD guy, averaging just 2-3 TDs per season, aside from his 6 TD season in 2020. Watson had a career year in 2022 with 315 receiving yards. They both contribute to the potent Kansas City offense, but they will probably not be much help to your fantasy football team. They will, however, take some of those available yards. Last season, the two accounted for about 1,000 yards. They could realistically duplicate that total in 2023, leaving only 1,800 yards to the rest.
Kadarius Toney: I “think” as long as Toney is healthy and plays a normal amount of plays for a starting receiver, he is likely the #1 wide receiver on the team. But, there is also the chance that the Chiefs will never give him a full workload for fear of injury. He may consistently be on a snap count for the entire season. In 2022, he never played 50% of the snaps, even though his Offensive Coordinator in New York was Mike Kafka, who was Andy Reid’s Quarterback Coach from 2018-21. Thus, he was familiar with Reid’s system to a certain extent. I am not sure his usage in Week 01 will resolve this situation unless he does see hefty playing time.
Skyy Moore: He is the trendiest of the group that could take a step forward after his rookie season. He has steadily run with the first team of receivers throughout camp, and reports have been positive regarding his progression from last year. What gives me pause is the lack of playing time he earned in his rookie year, despite the facts that both the receiving room was not an upper talented group and there were receiver injuries throughout the course of the year that did provide openings for playing time. The only game he played over 50% was the AFC Championship game, a game in which Justin Watson missed and JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, and Toney all suffered injuries during the game. For the regular season, Moore had 250 yards receiving in 2022. Now, with that stated, sometimes rookie receivers simply do need time. Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis in 2001) had 345 yards receiving his rookie year. Davante Adams never had over 500 yards receiving until his 3rd season (2016). Moore came out of a mid-major conference, so the learning curve is steeper. The point here is the jury is still out, and what he does this year will help sway it.
Rashee Rice—Camp reports have been positive. Mahomes made the comparison of Rice looking like a healthy Sammy Watkins. His preseason was mostly solid, except for some brutal drops in the last preseason game. Yet, even in that game, either during the drops or afterwards, what was noticeable was that he was constantly getting open. He also has much more size (6’1” 204) than Moore and Richie James, and he plays like it. He has decent speed (4.51 40), but tested very well in terms of quickness before the draft. What intrigues me the most about him is he looks to have the size and quickness to be a chain mover, thus there could be volume here. I could see him filling the 2022 JuJu Smith-Schuster role, but with more upside. He is the unknown, so there is a wide array of outcomes.
Richie James: Reports out of camp have been solid for him, and I thought Kansas City’s signing of him was a sneaky good choice. From Weeks 13-16 last season with the New York Giants, he averaged 67.25 yards per game while scoring 2 TDs (on a team that averaged 210 yards passing a game during that stretch.) (Also, I did not include Week 17 because that was the Davis Webb quarterbacked game, as New York clinched it play-off spot.) The point I am making is he could be a sleeper in this group.
Justyn Ross: He is the absolute wildcard, which is saying A LOT considering all of the others I just mentioned are already ones. His promising college career at Clemson was marred by a congenital fusion condition involving his neck and spine. He had surgery and returned, but he did not have the success he had previously. He then missed the 2022 season due to foot surgery. If he could return to the form he showed his freshman year at Clemson, a season in which he had 1,000 yards and 9 TDs receiving, including a 153 yard, 1 TD outing against Alabama in the National Championship, he could wind up being an absolute fantasy asset. On the flip side, however, he has not received as much practice reps with the first team as the aforementioned options during training camp. Several local reporters believe he may only fill a role in red zone packages due to his physical attributes—he is tall: 6’4” 205 lbs.
What I am watching for is which receivers are getting the snaps and what they do with those snaps. If MVS, Moore, Watson, and Toney get the majority of snaps, that would be expected, based on training camp reports. However, if one or several of them do nothing of note with that playing time, then there is an opening for Rice, James, and/or Ross. IF in the first game of the season, Rice, James, or Ross play substantial roles and do something with those roles, then call me intrigued!
However, there is another thing to consider, after all of this. Because this wide receiving unit does not have a proven WR1 but is fairly deep, there may not be any viable fantasy options here, as they could simply split the remaining yards fairly evenly. That is a realistic possibility, which would make me a bit sad, since that would mean the effort spent creating this whole section, as well as the time you spent reading it, was an exercise in futility.
The Noah Gray Question:
I genuinely believe that Kansas City will not risk playing Travis Kelce against Detroit. And that, my friends, leaves us with Noah Gray. In the five seasons with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce both starting and playing together, the most receiving yards any other tight end had in a season was 164 (Demetrius Harris 2018). That is, until 2022, when that record was “shattered?” by Noah Gray, who had 299. What does that tell us, you ask? It tells us that Noah Gray has shown to be more capable of receiving yardage than any other back-up tight end during this era; thus, there may be some upside. Other than Kelce being bigger, the physical attributes and agility Gray demonstrated coming out of college are actually pretty similar to Kelce when he came out of college. If Kelce does not play, then Gray may not be a horrible pivot. He could wind up being a top 15 TE this week—not really a high bar, is it? Of course, another option brings me to my final point of curiosity….
The Lion Rookies:
I had dreams of a Marshall Faulk-like season for D’Andre Swift in Detroit in 2022. He did okay, but there was so much potential. So of course, I am (with slight hesitation) apparently doubling down on Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit in 2023. The ceiling is so high. What I will be observing is the split between Gibbs and Montgomery in the backfield. I am hoping for at least a 50/50 split. Given Gibbs is a rookie and this is the first game, that would speak volumes to me. If that happens, I think there is much potential for Gibbs this year.
I am also paying attention to Sam LaPorta. Usually, the biggest obstacles to rookie tight ends becoming fantasy factors stem from competition from other tight ends on the team. It does not appear that this will be an obstacle. According to numerous accounts, he is the starter, and it seems like Detroit is going to throw him into the fire. As long as Jameson Williams is out, Detroit will be looking for a second option in the passing game. LaPorta has a realistic chance of serving as that option. If you are a Kelce owner, he would be an interesting pivot as well. In addition, if you are not excited about your current tight end and are not married to your kicker or another player on your roster, then why not grab LaPorta before the game. If he does nothing, then you drop him and go get a kicker for the weekend. But, if he does pop, then you don’t have to worry about the waiver wire process and you would then have a reason to be excited for your tight end position.