Another year. Another dollar. Okay, another year. Let’s see how I did this past year for the regularly scheduled week-end games.
On the start side, of the 36 notations regarding who to start at QB, I was right 18 times, wrong 15 times, and 3 pushes. Of the 36 notations regarding who to start at RB, I was right 17 times, wrong 13 times, and 6 pushes. Of the 36 notations regarding who to start at WR, I was right 11 times, wrong 25 times, and no pushes. Of the 36 notations regarding who to start at TE, I was right 4 times, wrong 31 times, and 1 push. And of the 36 notations regarding which team defense to start, I was right 20 times, wrong 13 times, and 3 pushes.
So, a few observations:
- I was very bad at TE, but I think there are a few variables in play here. One, I believe I held them accountable much higher in what they should produce than what I should have.
- And two, the position is, and has been for the last couple of years, a top heavy producer statistically. The top 3 to 5, who you will start regardless, are the ones that produce, while the middle to lower runts are that because they do not produce, even when they should be according to the numbers.
Taking this into consideration, to more accurately reflect the position, I may consider a lower threshold for them next year. For the others, I was pretty consistent, doing slightly better regarding team defenses and the worst at which receivers to start.
Now, for our sitters, of the 36 notations regarding who to sit at QB, I was right 20 times, wrong 14 times, and 2 pushes. Of the 36 notations regarding who to sit at RB, I was right 20 times, wrong 15 times, and 1 push. Of the 36 notations regarding who to sit at WR, I was right 23 times, wrong 11 times, and 2 pushes. Of the 36 times regarding who to sit at TE, I was right 25 times, wrong 9 times, and 2 pushes. Of the 36 times regarding which team defense to sit, I was right 17 times, wrong 17 times, and 2 pushes. Looks like an equal and opposite effect from the starters. I believe the TE numbers being right to sit are skewed here too for the reasons previously noted above. And, as wrong as I was regarding who to start for the wideout position, I was equally right regarding which ones to sit. Maybe there is something about that position too, just not as drastic as for the tight ends? Hmmm.
So, collectively, let’s see how I did. There were 360 total occurrences, and of these 360, I was right 175 times, or 48.6%, wrong 163 times, or 45.3%, and a push 22 times, or 6.1%. I was better at being right, but not more than half the time. Not good enough. I need to do better.
In comparison, I was right 59.5% of the time for the Thursday/early games, wrong 33.8% of the time and a push 6.7% for the rest of the time. That is more like it.
Well, I hope I was more helpful than not for you, and when your gut said something different than my words, I hope you listened to your gut and not me. Numbers are numbers. Instincts matter. And so do you. Enjoy your off-season and see you for the 2024 season.
By Brooksie on January 13, 2024