Season Wrap Round Table

The 2022 fantasy football season is complete.  As we look back at what transpired, there are many questions worth asking and worth trying to answer.  Here is the first set of questions:

 

Who was the biggest surprise in terms of fantasy success in 2022?

• Winsto–There were a few players that surprised me, but none more than Geno Smith (QB-Seattle).  I admit that I did not see that coming at all.  He finished as the 5th best fantasy quarterback in standard scoring, and he also proved capable on the actual field, sporting almost a 70% completion percentage, 30 TD passes (4th most) versus 11 INTs, 4282 passing yards (8th most), and also 366 rushing yards (with another TD).  Considering I (and many others) did not even have him ranked in the top 25 quarterbacks to start the season, his performance was simply impressive and unforeseen.

• Brooksie–Geno is a good one, but let me go somewhere else – Waddle and Hill. I would have presumed, with the addition of Hill to the Miami receiving corp, a two fold effect would have happened: less yards for Hill than what he got in KC and less yards for Waddle, pre-Hill in Miami. Hill, compared to his last year in KC, had almost 500 yards more and only 1 less receiving TD than in his first year with Miami. And Waddle, compared to last year, had about 300 yards more and 1 more TD this year. Except for one less TD, both guys had better years than their previous one, and this also includes multiple games with a back-up QB, as well as a back-up to the back up out there too. (The person who really felt this pinch was Gesicki.) I would not have thought both Hill and Waddle would have finished as top 10 fantasy wide-outs and have better numbers than previous. Yet, I feel, and fear, there is room for even more improvement here. Yikes.

• Lamar–This is an easy one, RB Jamaal Williams. I did not expect the Lions to have as good of an offense as they did. I also expected Williams to continue in his role as a change of pace back capable of catching the ball out of the backfield. At the start of the season D’Andre Swift looked to be the most talented RB in that backfield. As it turns out, Swift got injured early in the season and Williams stepped in to fill his shoes to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns. I would be surprised if Williams repeated the same performance again next season, but it would not be the first time.

 

Who was your biggest fantasy disappointment in 2022?

• Winsto–Make no mistake, there were several players I expected more from–looking at you, Russell Wilson (QB-Denver) and D’Andre Swift (RB-Detroit), but I think the player that disappointed me the most in fantasy football was Gabe Davis (WR-Buffalo).  Yes, there were players who performed more poorly than Davis, but I was in the camp of Davis believers to start the season.  After going 35-549-6 in 2021 as the 3rd or 4th wide receiver option, he only improved to 48-836-7 in 2022 as the 2nd wide receiver option, finishing 24th in standard scoring.  (And, 3-171-2 came in one game, so for the other 16 games he played, he went 45-665-5.)  Granted, that is not awful, but I really expected something closer to 1,000-1,100 yards and 10+ TDs.  I was obviously wrong.  Yes, there were a couple of things that went against him as the season unfolded.  He had an ankle injury early in the season, costing a game and limiting him a few more.  Josh Allen (QB-Buffalo) suffered an elbow injury.  And, in the middle of the year, Buffalo made a concerted effort to be more balance and run the ball more. Regardless, I expected more. 

• Brooksie–My biggest disappointment is on the QB front and is probably a tie between Justin Herbert and Aaron Rodgers. Hebert went from the #3 QB in 2021 to a potential candidate as the #1 QB going into 2022 to producing as the #9 QB. He did have to deal with his top 2 wide-outs with injuries, but even with them, he did not light it up. He still needs help on the offensive line and, considering their ages and injuries this year, a new #1 wide-out if he is going to get back to top 5 status. Without some changes here, I might be pulling the reigns back a little on him. Rodgers, meanwhile, finished 2021 as the #5 QB, and the possibility as being in the 5-10 range for 2022, but he ended up finishing as the #14 QB. Some of this has to be due to no elite WR with the loss of Adams, but some might be due to offensive philosophy. Unless something changes on either front, I think we have seen/are seeing the decline of who he is and what he will produce. Not sure he is done in Green Bay, but you never know.

• Lamar–RB Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis Colts were the biggest fantasy disappointment for me this year. Taylor was close to a consensus 1st pick in fantasy drafts because the thought was he would continue to build on his 2021 campaign now that the Colts had a decent quarterback in Matt Ryan. Boy was I wrong. I kept Taylor in my line up week in and week out while he continued to disappoint. Outside of weeks 1 and 10, he was a disappointment for teams. Taylor will rebound next year, but I do not think he will be the first pick in most fantasy drafts again.

 

What is one thing you learned this season that you will keep in mind in the future?

• Winsto–I think we saw how fragile, inconsistent, and futile the tight end position can be outside of Travis Kelce (TE-Kansas City) and latter season George Kittle (TE-San Francisco). Mark Andrews (TE-Baltimore) was impacted by injuries on his offense, and he failed to score a TD after Week 6.  T. J. Hockenson (TE-Minnesota) had two amazing games, but only scored in two other games and only topped 70 yards in three others.  Taysom Hill (TE-New Orleans) really only had one great game early in the season, but he did show solid stability late.  And then of course, the injuries to Dallas Goedert (TE-Philadelphia), Darren Waller (TE-Las Vegas) and Zach Ertz (TE-Arizona) did not help matters, nor did Kyle Pitts (TE-Atlanta) getting injured and trying to catch passes from Marcus Mariota in that offense.

• Brooksie–Consistency in top guys, top 10, maybe even top 5, is just not there like it used to be. In fantasy football, you could always count on your number one running back and number one wide receiver to get at least 100 yards, a score, and usually both. This just does not happen, consistently, anymore. Take for example Justin Jefferson, arguably the number one wide receiver in the league. He had games of 14 yards, 15 yards, 33 yards, and 48 yards with no touchdown to go with them. This is almost a quarter of his games, yet he still finished number 2 in fantasy points (depending on your league) and led the league in receiving yards. Maybe there is some recency bias here, but I just do not remember a top player having games like this. It is probably even more true with running backs since more teams, each and every year, are going from a bell cow to a 2 back set. We might have to all start considering playing the match-ups each and every week with our top dogs too.

• Lamar–That kickers are a parasite on fantasy football and the TE position gave me a headache all season because I did not have a top 3 TE. These issues will probably not change next year, so I just have to learn to live with it.

 

Who are your way-too-early top three players by position for the 2023 fantasy season?

• Winsto–This is definitely a way-too-early ranking, but that is what we do.  Quarterback:  Patrick Mahomes (KC), Joe Burrow (Cin), and Josh Allen (Buf).  Running Back: Josh Jacobs (LV), Saquon Barkley (NYG), and Nick Chubb (Cle).  Wide Receiver:  Justin Jefferson (Min), Ja’Marr Chase (Cin), and Tyreek Hill (Mia).  Tight End: Travis Kelce (KC), Mark Andrews (Bal), and George Kittle (SF).

• Brooksie–I mean, that is not all what I do, but I will do this. Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes (KC), Jalen Hurts (Philly), and Josh Allen (BUF). Running Back: Derrick Henry (TN), Austin Ekeler (LAC), and Saquon Barkley (NYG). Wide Receiver: Cooper Kupp (LAR), Justin Jefferson (Min), and Jamar Chase (Cin). Tight End: Travis Kelce (KC), Mark Andrews (Bal) and T. J. Hockenson (Min).

• Lamar–QB: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts. RB: Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Christian McCaffrey. WR: Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill. TE: Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, George Kittle.

 

Name me an upper echelon player that you might fade for 2023 and why?

• Winsto—Christian McCaffrey (RB-San Francisco) is one.  Look, he is elite, especially in PPR, but I have concerns about his future workload.  The coaches really seem to want Elijah Mitchell (RB) to be involved, and not just to spell McCaffrey for a play or two.  During the three games that Mitchell was healthy in the middle of the season (Weeks 10-12), McCaffrey never topped 40 yards rushing, only topped 100 total yards once, and only scored 1 TD.  And, two of those games were against the porous rush defenses of Arizona and the Los Angeles Chargers.  With all of that said, I still think he can be a top 10 running back–especially in PPR leagues, and Mitchell may not stay healthy enough to really threaten McCaffrey’s workload, given Mitchell’s injury history.  Still, I would not go into 2023 with McCaffrey as a top 5 running back.

• Brooksie—Alvin Kamara (RB – New Orleans). He faded this year, and the way things are trending, he may fade even further next year due to on and off the field issues. Off the field, his court date is set for the spring. Assuming things get resolved before the season, one can easily assume he will miss a few games for being in the wrong place at the wrong time if found not guilty, and many more if found guilty. On the field, Taysom Hill not only takes away some of his touches, he takes away important potential ones, i.e. red zone and goal line touches. Combine that with the underuse of Kamara as a receiving back by both Dalton and Winston, he is just not getting the play that he got when Drew Brees was the QB. Unless something changes on or off the field, maybe even both, I am not sure Kamara’s numbers don’t take another dip next year.

• Lamar—Dalvin Cook (RB-Minnesota) has seen a decline in rushing attempts per game and yards per rush the last two seasons. The Viking offense passed more this year under 1st year head coach Kevin O’Connell.  I expect that trend to continue next year as the Vikings seek to be more balanced on offense. Few carries per game and yards per attempt mean fewer points. I do not think he will be an RB1 next year and should not be drafted as such.