By Winsto (updated 08/27/2023)
When trying to decide which wide receivers to go with, you want to consider a few things: ability, potential targets, talent of the quarterback, and potency of the offense. In terms of ability, some players pass the eye test and some do not. In terms of potential targets, ask yourself who else is on the offense that will receive targets, and how do you think those targets will be distributed. Regarding the quarterback play, it is always a plus for a wide receiver to play with an upper level quarterback. And finally, how productive do you think the offense is going to be?
What also complicates matters is whether you play in a non-PPR league, a PPR league, or a 1/2 PPR league. As stated in previous articles, I, personally, am not a fan of PPRs. The following tiers are a sort of compromise of the three options.
In addition, touchdowns can be fluky, but they do matter. Some players tend to have higher touchdown ceilings than others. For example, Robert Woods has been a good football player, but he has never scored more than 6 receiving touchdowns in any of his nine regular season. That matters. Gabriel Davis, in three seasons (two of which as a part-time player), has not scored LESS than 6 receiving touchdown. Yes, you do want to pursue targets and yardage, but do not simply ignore touchdowns because many consider them to be fluky. They are not completely random.
One more note to mention: there “seems” to be more depth at wide receiver this year, so consider this when you are drafting.
Let’s begin….
Tier 1–the LSU alumni (1-2)
- Justin Jefferson, Min
- Ja’Marr Chase, Cin
Look, these guys, simply put, are in a class of their own, fantasy-wise. As much as I love running backs, I would not have an issue drafting one of these guys with a top 3 pick, though I give the edge to Jefferson.
Tier 2-the elite (3-7)
- Tyreek Hill, Mia
- Cooper Kupp, LAR
- Davante Adams, LV
- Stefan Diggs, Buf
- Garrett Wilson, NYJ
These guys are no slouches, either. I think there is just a slight drop-off from Tier 1. Hill had an amazing year last season, and I see no reason he cannot continue it. Kupp and Adams are target monsters, and there is no reason to think that will not continue. Diggs should still remain the focal point of Buffalo’s passing attack. As for Wilson, this is me calling my shot. Aaron Rodgers will grow to love throwing to Wilson as he loved throwing to Adams or Jordy Nelson before him.
Tier 3-the borderline elite (8-10)
- A. J. Brown, Phi
- CeeDee Lamb, Dal
- Aman-Ra St. Brown, Det
I may be splitting hairs with this tier and Tier 2, but I do think there is a slight drop off between the two. All three are set up for a strong season.
Tier 4–the very good (11-17)
- Deebo Samuel, SF
- Jaylen Waddle, Mia
- Chris Olave, NO
- Tee Higgins, Cin
- DeVonta Smith, Phi
- Amari Cooper, Cle
- Calvin Ridley, Jax
- DeAndre Hopkins, Ten
Deebo had a bit of a down year last season, but he could potentially bounce back. Waddle has to share with Hill. Olave is primed for a breakout year. Higgins is in a good situation, but he has to share targets with Chase. The same applies to D. Smith. Cooper’s success will be heavily influenced by how well D. Watson can rebound. If Ridley has shaken off the rust, he could be a steal in the draft, given who’s throwing to him. Hopkins should continue to be a target monster, but Tennessee may not throw as often as he would like.
Tier 5–the good (18-27)
- D. K. Metcalf, Sea
- Mike Williams, LAC
- Keenan Allen, LAC
- Terry McLaurin, Was
- Tyler Lockett, Sea
- Drake London, Atl
- Jahan Dotson, Was
- Brandon Aiyuk, SF
- D. J. Moore, Chi
- Jerry Jeudy, Den
The common theme here is these are good players but will have to compete for targets. Metcalf and Lockett will have more competition this season with the addition of rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Williams and Allen will have a similar issue with rookie Quentin Johnston, as well as trying to stay healthy. McLaurin and Dotson will be closer in points than many realize—I am bullish on Dotson, and they are both going to compete for targets in a Sam Howell led offense. London looks good, but he is on a very run-centric team that may look to protect its young quarterback. Aiyuk took a leap forward last year, but he is still on a team that has many mouths to feed. Moore is a good receiver, and I may be ranking him too low here. But, he is playing in a passing offense that seemed to be from the 1970s last season. How much that will change is the question. Jeudy would be higher in this group, but his preseason injury may carry over into the regular season.
Tier 6–the potential with risk (28-41)
- Christian Watson, GB
- George Pickens, Pit
- Mike Evans, TB
- Chris Godwin, TB
- Kadarius Toney, KC
- Jordan Addison, Min
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea
- Michael Pittman, Ind
- Christian Kirk, Jax
- Odell Beckham, Jr., Bal
- Zay Flowers, Bal
- Skyy Moore, KC
- Quentin Johnston, LAC
- Romeo Doubs, GB
- Jameson Williams, Det
- Michael Thomas, NO
Here is a tier of risk/reward. Somebody will catch passes from Jordan Love, but how many passes and who are becoming a question. Reports from camp suggest Doubs instead of Watson may be the number 1 option, though I do think Watson’s talent is too much for that to be the case. Pickens has looked good in the preseason. Will it carry over? Evans and Godwin may struggle with Tampa Bay’s passing attack, as a Mayfield led offense has only supported two 1,000 yard receivers (both in 2019). Could it happen again? That is the question. Ugh…Toney! If he could stay healthy, and that is a big if, he has the talent to be fantasy gold in Kansas City’s offense. The problem is that he has not been able to prove he can stay healthy. If he cannot, then Moore may be able to see a second-year leap. If Addison can become the second or even third option in Minnesota’s offense, there is fantasy gold to be had. Smith-Njigba “could” end up with better stats than one or even two of his fellow teammates, but his preseason injury knocks him down. Pittman will face some obstacles with the new passing game in Indianapolis. Reports out of Jacksonville have Kirk being the 3rd receiver out of the slot, so a repeat of last season may not be in the cards, as he may not be on the field as often. Still, I worry I am ranking his a bit too low here. OBJ and Flowers will compete for targets against not only each other but also Mark Andrews. History has demonstrated that injuries occasionally occur to Charger receivers. If that happens, Johnson would be primed for a solid year. J. Williams will be missing the first 6 weeks of the season; however, he has elite talent and may be worth the wait. I don’t know what Michael Thomas has left in him, but there is always a chance he could rebound.
Tier 7—the you-never-know -group (42-48)
- Adam Thielen, Car
- Diontae Johnson, Pit
- Gabe Davis, Buf
- Marquise Brown, Ari
- Brandon Cooks, Dal
- Allen Lazard, NYJ
Thielen may still provide some fantasy owners occasional weekly success with the TDs, but I worry about consistency. Johnson may have been surpassed as the number one option on his offense, though I think the talent is there for him to outproduce this ranking. Gabe Davis may never be more than a solid number two receiver, despite the wishes of the fantasy community. Brown will also struggle with stats with Arizona’s passing game. Cooks finally finds himself out of purgatory offenses, but I do fear he will be inconsistent in Dallas’s offense. Lazard will look to take the pressure off of Wilson and Rodgers, and his familiarity with Rodgers will help a few weeks.
Tier 8—the even bigger you-never-know group (49-57)
- Rashee Rice, KC
- Jalen Hyatt, NYG
- John Metchie III, Hou
- Rashid Shaheed, NO
- Marvin Mims, Jr, Den
- Jonathan Mingo, Car
- Cedric Tillman, Cle
- Richie James, Jr, KC
- Tank Dell, Hou
- Justin Ross, KC
These are players who come with no floor, but if several things go their way this season, they could prove to be quite valuable. Make no mistake, each of these players are long shots and should be targets only toward the end of your draft. If you would rather go with a player who is more stable, skip to Tier 9.
Tier 9—the 400-800 receiving yard club (58-90)
- K. J. Osborn, Min
- Parris Campbell, NYG
- Courtland Sutton, Den
- Darius Slayton, NYG
- Zay Jones, Jax
- Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cle
- Isaiah Hodgins, NYG
- Jakobi Meyers, LV
- Michael Gallup, Dal
- Joshua Palmer, LAC
- Rashod Bateman, Bal
- JuJu Smith-Schuster, NE
- Alec Pierce, Ind
- Tyler Boyd, Cin
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling, KC
- Elijah Moore, Cle
- Mecole Hardman, NYJ
- Davante Parker, NE
- Nico Collins, Hou
- Van Jefferson, LAR
- D. J. Chark, Jr., Car
- Chase Claypool, Chi
- Curtis Samuel, Was
- Darnell Mooney, Chi
- Hunter Renfrow, LV
- Michael Wilson, Ari
- Jayden Reed, GB
- Allen Robinson, Pit
- Treylon Burks, Ten
- Rondale Moore, Ari
- Marvin Jones, Jr., Jax
- Noah Brown, Hou
- Westbrook-Ikhine, Nick , Ten
- Jalen Tolbert, Dal
At this point, the value of these guys may depend on the size and settings of your league.
Next up, TEs….