By Winsto (08/31/2023)
Introduction
Every football season, there are certain players that just seem poised to breakout and tremendously exceed their fantasy ranking. The following players are the ones I think will do just that. These are the players that I target in my drafts, whether those drafts are auction or snake. I predict that fantasy football championships will be won by a few of these players. In other words, these are the players that I am ALL IN for the 2023 fantasy football season.
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa (Mia)
The reasons?
- Okay, look, this is not for the faint of heart. I get it. But, he is going so late in drafts (13th QB off the board) that he is worth the risk. From a value perspective, he is too good to pass up. Just make sure you have another viable option in case he does get injured.
- If you look at his per game stats (from 13 games), and calculate them over a full 17 game season, his total passing yards would place him 4th among QBs and his TDs would place him 4th among QBs. His TD percentage was tied with Patrick Mahomes for the league lead. In addition, his INT percentage was on par with Joe Burrow and lower than Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen.
- He still has Tyreek Hill and Jaylon Waddle. In addition, Miami has added another receiving threat, Devon Achane (who is VERY fast) out of the backfield. There is no reason to think Tua cannot succeed, as long as he stays healthy.
- If you find yourself missing out on a top 5-7 QB, even if Tua does get injured, he should still give you a top 5-7 QB per week option at a much cheaper cost.
Other quarterbacks I considered (that are not obvious like Patrick Mahomes) were Derek Carr (NO) and Sam Howell (Was).
Running Back
Breece Hall (NYJ)
The reasons?
- The Jets should actually have a functional passing game this season and put up a respectable amount of TDs. Last season, only one team scored less TDs than New York (Indianapolis).
- Breece Hall averaged 97.2 total yards a game last season, and he only saw 15 or more total touches in 3 of the 7 games he played.
- He averaged 5.8 yards per carry.
- He scored 5 TDs in 7 games despite not playing more than 51% of the snaps in 4 of the 7 games.
- Dalvin Cook has a history of nagging injuries.
- The key here is you have to be patient in the first 3-4 games, as New York will probably ease Hall back. That said, we have already seen what he can do in even a limited role, and it is pretty solid.
- He is currently being drafted in the late 50s as the 18th RB. The value is there! Even with a slow September, he could push for a top 10 finish among RBs, or at least be a top 10 RB in the second half of the season.
Other running backs I considered (that are not obvious like Austin Ekeler) were Dameon Pierce (Hou), James Cook (Buf), and Tank Bigsby (Jax).
Wide Receiver
Jahan Dotson (Was)
The reasons?
- 68.8. That is the yardage Dotson averaged per game in Washington’s last 5 games of 2022. That would equate to 1,170 over a full season.
- In 4 of those games, Taylor Heinicke (a solid back-up) and Carson Wentz were the quarterbacks.
- In the 5th game, which was Sam Howell’s only start last season, Dotson went 3 catches for 72.
- Sam Howell seems to look better than Heinicke (again, a solid back-up) and Wentz.
- Dotson seems to have a knack for the endzone, as he caught 7 TDs in 12 games—2 of which he played less than 60% of the snaps.
- Washington has a new offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy (from Kansas City), who I believe is on a mission to prove that his success was not strictly due to being under Any Reid. Look for Bieniemy to open up the Washington offense a bit.
- He is currently about the 38th WR taken in drafts, behind players like Brandin Cooks and Courtland Sutton. I would absolutely take Dotson over those players and more, as I think he can finish as a top 25 receiver, or even better.
Other wide receivers considered were Garrett Wilson (NYJ), Chris Olave (NO), Jordan Addison (Min), and Kadarius Toney (KC).
Tight End
Juwan Johnson (NO)
The reasons?
- As I stated in my tier rankings for TE, “Johnson had me at ‘converted college wide receiver who is now the starting tight end for a Derek Carr led offense.’” His quarterback (besides the occasional Taysom Hill play) last season for most of the year was Andy Dalton, who threw for more than 260 yards passing ONCE out of his 13 games started.
- He is basically free in drafts, as he is going as the 22nd TE.
- He was tied for 3rd (with Cole Kmet) for the most TD receptions among tight ends last season.
- 2023 Derek Carr will be better than 2022 Andy Dalton.
- After the first 5-7 tight ends, it is a bit of a crap shoot.
- I am calling my shot here. J. Johnson will finish as a top 8 TE this season.
Other tight ends considered were Pat Freiermuth (Pit), Chigoziem Okonkwo (Ten), Sam LaPorta (Det), Dalton Kincaid (Buf), and Greg Dulcich (Den).
IDP
Nakobi Dean, LB (Phi)
The reasons?
- It appears that he will be wearing the green dot on defense; thus, he will be calling the defensive plays. That makes it unlikely he will come off the field.
- He is now going into his second year, and T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White, both having left for new teams, are no longer keeping him off the field.
- In extremely limited action in 2022 (34 defensive snaps), he had a tackle rate over 17%. To put that into perspective, the two leading tacklers from 2022 (Foyesude Oluoken and Nick Bolton) had tackle rates slightly over 16%.
- He is being ranked by many draft experts in the LB3-LB4 (30-40) range, which makes him ridiculously cheap to acquire. I think he will push for a LB1 (top 10) finish this year.
Other IDPs considered were Troy Anderson (Atl), Azeez Al-Shaair (Ten), Kaden Elliss (Atl), and Peter Werner (NO).
DST
Whoever is playing Arizona. Sorry Arizona fans. I fear that 2023 will not be pretty. The point here is wait until the last two rounds of the draft for DSTs,
If you must know, other DST considered were New Orleans and New York Jets.
Kicker
Again, whoever is playing Arizona. I am not saying the team is tanking for the future, but I am not saying they will be good. Listen, there will be better days ahead for Arizona fans. Arizona will be going into the 2024 Draft with some very high draft capital, so there is light on the horizon. As with DSTs, wait until the last two rounds of the draft for a kicker.
If you must know, other kickers considered were Cameron Dicker (LAC) and Greg Zuerlein (NYJ).