Winsto’s Final FronTiers–RBs

(Updated 8/25/2022)

Running Backs! They are the foundation of a good fantasy football team, and a reliable work-horse running back has become harder and harder to find. Some would suggest going with a zero running back strategy, in which you basically ignore the position until later rounds while going after elite players at other positions. With this strategy, you no longer need to “reach” for a running back while an elite player at another position is still available. Honestly, I am not a fan of the zero running back strategy. Simply put, the upper to mid level tier running backs are more consistent than all but the very elite wide receivers. You want consistency with your weekly line-up, allowing yourself the chance to win week in and week out. As for PPR scoring, I have never been a fan. That said, running backs who catch the ball do get those additional yards compared to running backs who typically do not have many receptions. I also believe there is no such thing as having too many running backs. With all of that said, let us dive in!

Tier 1–the elite (1-5)

Aside from Henry, these guys are going to typically be on the field for all three downs. Taylor is coming off an impressive year. There is some talk about scaling back his touches, but even then, he should still be a top 5 running back at the very least. Yes, McCaffrey has had injury issues the past two years, but I “think” they were a bit fluky, as he never really had an injury history before, even going back to college. Bottom line is when he is on the field, he is elite. Henry is just special. The only real knock on Cook is that he has yet to play a full set of games in a season. For what Harris was able to do with that Pittsburgh’s offensive line and Roethlisberger’s play last year was amazing.

Tier 2–the almost elite (6-8)

This group could easily be in the top tier, to be honest. There are slight concerns with each, however. There has been talk of Ekeler’s touches being more limited, and I have some concern about how his team handles goal line packages. Joe Mixon is steady, but Cincinnati seems to like others for the third downs. Barkley is now two years removed from his torn ACL. Did we all forget that he was considered a generational talent coming out of college? His first two seasons in the NFL supported this idea, and surely New York’s offense will be better under Daboll, right?

Tier 3–the talented who split time (9-12)

I could be undervaluing Kamara, here, but the concern is both his splitting time and uncertainty with New Orleans’s offense. Melvin Gordon will be a thorn in J. Williams’s side, but Williams is expected to be the main back in the split. What can you say about Chubb? His career yards per carry is over 5–that is just impressive. He would be higher if not for the concern with the Cleveland offense. I truly think Swift has the potential to be an elite running back, but I am not the coach for Detroit.

Tier 4–the solid with questions (13-18)

Aaron Jones is good, but A. J. Dillon is pretty good, too. The fact that Akers came back from his Achilles tear at the end of last season is impressive, even though his performance was not great. There are questions, between his ability to fully recover from that Achilles to time-sharing with Henderson, but there is tremendous upside there. Fournette is solid as well, though his 3rd down usage from last year may not be duplicated. Was Elliot’s down year last season due to the nagging injury? Maybe? Mitchell seems to have won over the coaching staff, but Shanahan is full of surprises. Dobbins could be a huge value here, but there is uncertainty with how well he progresses from his ACL tear last preseason.

Tier 5–the questions galore (19-25)

Breece Hall has talent, but so does Michael Carter. Travis Etienne has talent, but so does James Robinson. Both have tremendous upside if they take control of their backfields. Pierce is making serious noise in Houston, and he may be able to claim the role of feature back. There is talk in Chicago about a more split backfield. Between that and the concern regarding Chicago’s offense, Montgomery falls here. James Conner scored 18 total touchdowns last season while averaging 3.7 yards per carry; I have some doubts, to say the least, about that touchdown total being duplicated. Rashaad Penny finally showed why he was the second running back drafted in 2018, averaging over 6 yards per carry last season, BUT Kenneth Walker was the second running back drafted in 2022. If Penny can avoid injury and pick up where he left off last season, he may be able to fend off Walker and become quite a bargain, but those are big IFs. There are numerous red flags surrounding Josh Jacobs that are coming out of Las Vegas, with discussion of time-shares and such. Jacobs is one who needs volume to be successful in fantasy, so less volume means less success.

Tier 6–the New England tier (26-27)

Both backs averaged 4.6 yards per carry last season. New England runs the ball. Both can be valuable. Stevenson may have the edge here because he seems like the better receiver.

Tier 7–the buyer beware tier/what if I am wrong tier (28-32)

These are running backs that typically will not wind up on my fantasy teams. Whether it is because their coaches simply do not trust them to be the main backs, they are simply not built to be the main backs, they face talented competition for touches, or some combination of all three, there are simply too many questions surrounding each of them. Of course, they are all technically the starters for their respective teams (as of now), so I guess there is value in that. I would actually go after the next tier before any of these guys, but there is always the chance I could be absolutely wrong with at least one of these running backs.

Tier 8–the lottery tickets (33-46)

All of these names could be special. Dillon has proven solid, and even in a time-share, can contribute. If something happened to A. Jones, then Dillon would be a top 10 RB. With Pacheco, Walker III, and Robinson, they may not even need an injury to take the lead in their backfields. As much as the fantasy community wants Dallas to unleash Pollard, it seems that Dallas is behind Zeke. Gordon, Carter, Hunt, and Robinson have proven themselves very capable of putting up top 15 RB numbers if injuries opened the path for them to be the feature back. Herbert showed some promise last season in limited action. Patterson’s 2021 season was very unique, to say the least. I am not sure he can duplicate it, but he still may be the most talented person in Atlanta’s running back room. Jeff Wilson has shown ability when he has been called upon, but he does have an injury history and a coach who tends to surprise fantasy football owners. Warren and Benjamin appear to have earned themselves the back-up spots in Pittsburgh and Arizona, respectively.

Tier 9–talented part-timers who will/should play (47-54)

In this tier, we find players who will play, but we are not really sure if they will ever be more than part-time players, even with injuries ahead of them. I tend to avoid guys in this tier and take my chances with the next tier.

Tier 10–the dart throws (55- )

At this point, if you are still looking here, then you are probably in a deep league or share my motto–“there is no such thing as too many running backs.” I think Zamir White and Rachaad White could be interesting if injuries occurred in front of them. Ronald Jones could become a factor with Kansas City, or he could be traded or cut. Reports are that Hilliard looks like Henry’s back-up, but would he get most of the carries with Haskins also there? Davis-Price could emerge in San Francisco. Would Moss or Cook split carries, or could one emerge? The same question applies to Kelley and Spiller as well as Foreman and Hubbard. Edwards would be higher if not for the injury. Scott always seems to play his way into a role for Philadelphia. Damien Williams, lest we forget, could have easily been named Superbowl MVP three years ago.

Up next, Wide Receivers….